Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$-6.5K

Smart Money Signal

Down

31 of 52 top traders (60%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,814

Combined PnL$-6.8K

Down31 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,495

Combined PnL+$281.9

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.4K	43% 332-444 (776)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$47.68	45% 617-764 (1381)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.9K
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 49.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$195.09	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 34.4¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	59% 1137-785 (1922)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 88.7¢	$957.77	$889.27	-$68.5	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 74.1¢	$845.26	$862.73	+$17.47	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	—	-$867.99	52% 3756-3495 (7251)
ST stepahead	Downavg 76.8¢	$753.72	$773.3	+$19.58	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 63.2¢	$719.12	$638.75	-$80.37	44% 821-1031 (1852)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 80.9¢	$1.1K	$341.09	-$316.93	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$260.12	—	-$336.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.9¢	$276.01	$341.09	+$20.06
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$612.07	$486.23	-$6.43	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$252.92	$486.23	+$246.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$245.27	—	-$252.77
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60.4¢	$352.08	$394.91	+$42.83	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.3¢	$113.41	—	-$113.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.4¢	$238.67	$394.91	+$156.23
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97¢	$398.52	$410.99	+$12.47	98% 4362-90 (4452)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 75.2¢	$1.4K	$391.98	-$40.59	55% 497-402 (899)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 66.3¢	$430.77	$367.32	-$63.45	46% 861-1029 (1890)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 87.1¢	$318.78	$273.63	-$37.57	67% 3861-1939 (5800)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 78.7¢	$293.55	$299.86	+$6.31	47% 795-912 (1707)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 87.1¢	$264.32	$265.28	+$4.47	62% 4514-2735 (7249)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 73.9¢	$220.26	$233.08	+$12.81	51% 865-844 (1709)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.9¢	$172.31	$233.08	+$60.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.1¢	$47.96	—	-$47.96
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 31.1¢	$359.61	$200	-$159.61	52% 449-409 (858)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.5¢	$166.96	$200	+$33.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.1¢	$192.65	—	-$192.65
machinelearned	Downavg 66.7¢	$234.06	$224.99	-$9.07	47% 1167-1297 (2464)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 24.4¢	$266.12	$170.85	-$95.27	30% 572-1335 (1907)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$129.91	$170.85	+$40.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$136.21	—	-$136.21
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57¢	$182.04	$171.95	-$6.42	54% 4655-4026 (8681)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$154.12	$144.73	-$9.39	50% 870-854 (1724)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.7¢	$100.87	$144.73	+$43.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.8¢	$53.26	—	-$53.26
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 61.7¢	$161.29	$189.59	+$28.3	42% 859-1179 (2038)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

43%

332-444 (776)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$47.68

Record

45%

617-764 (1381)

Both legs:

Down$1,818.1750¢+$1.9K

Up$1,818.1750¢$-1.9K

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,153.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$195.09

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$1,097.07

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$957.77

Value

$889.27

PnL

-$68.5

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$845.26

Value

$862.73

PnL

+$17.47

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$867.99

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$753.72

Value

$773.3

PnL

+$19.58

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$719.12

Value

$638.75

PnL

-$80.37

Record

44%

821-1031 (1852)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,073.7

Value

$341.09

PnL

-$316.93

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

Both legs:

Up$260.1238.5¢-$336.99

Down$276.0180.9¢+$20.06

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$612.07

Value

$486.23

PnL

-$6.43

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Down$252.9252¢+$246.34

Up$245.2748.7¢-$252.77

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$352.08

Value

$394.91

PnL

+$42.83

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Both legs:

Up$113.4126.3¢-$113.41

Down$238.6760.4¢+$156.23

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$398.52

Value

$410.99

PnL

+$12.47

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$1,424.12

Value

$391.98

PnL

-$40.59

Record

55%

497-402 (899)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$430.77

Value

$367.32

PnL

-$63.45

Record

46%

861-1029 (1890)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$318.78

Value

$273.63

PnL

-$37.57

Record

67%

3861-1939 (5800)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$293.55

Value

$299.86

PnL

+$6.31

Record

47%

795-912 (1707)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$264.32

Value

$265.28

PnL

+$4.47

Record

62%

4514-2735 (7249)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.26

Value

$233.08

PnL

+$12.81

Record

51%

865-844 (1709)

Both legs:

Down$172.3173.9¢+$60.77

Up$47.9618.1¢-$47.96

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$359.61

Value

$200

PnL

-$159.61

Record

52%

449-409 (858)

Both legs:

Down$166.9683.5¢+$33.04

Up$192.6531.1¢-$192.65

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$234.06

Value

$224.99

PnL

-$9.07

Record

47%

1167-1297 (2464)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$266.12

Value

$170.85

PnL

-$95.27

Record

30%

572-1335 (1907)

Both legs:

Down$129.9176¢+$40.94

Up$136.2124.4¢-$136.21

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$182.04

Value

$171.95

PnL

-$6.42

Record

54%

4655-4026 (8681)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.12

Value

$144.73

PnL

-$9.39

Record

50%

870-854 (1724)

Both legs:

Down$100.8769.7¢+$43.86

Up$53.2619.8¢-$53.26

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$161.29

Value

$189.59

PnL

+$28.3

Record

42%

859-1179 (2038)

Smart Money Signal

Down

31 of 52 top traders (60%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9fa1df32...f80db1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794747900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.3K

+$195.09

Bonereaper

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.1K

blue.birds

Down — $889.27

-$68.5

asdcaxz

Down — $862.73

+$17.47

soswald1

CTR

Up — $0

-$867.99

stepahead

Down — $773.3

+$19.58

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $638.75

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded