Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$-8.3K

Smart Money Signal

32 of 47 top traders (68%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,575

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Up32 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares10,014

Combined PnL+$80.32

Down — 32%Up — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.2K	43% 332-444 (776)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 924-7 (931)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.2K	45% 617-764 (1381)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$166.58	59% 1137-785 (1922)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.4¢	$936.31	$1.3K	+$412.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$578.87	—	-$578.87
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$860.6	-$25.15	52% 3756-3495 (7251)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$430.3	$860.6	+$444.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$464.62	—	-$469.47
BL blue.birds	Upavg 77¢	$815.22	$866.48	+$70.86	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 71.4¢	$710.43	$687.9	-$22.53	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$630.56	$620.44	-$10.13	44% 821-1031 (1852)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$368.77	$620.44	+$251.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.2¢	$261.79	—	-$261.79
ST stepahead	Upavg 68.3¢	$624.13	$624.14	+$0.01	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 67.4¢	$617.82	$559.13	-$35.89	34% 801-1536 (2337)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$592.17	$484.53	-$1.64	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$246.19	$484.53	+$248.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$239.25	—	-$250.29
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 33¢	$540.02	—	-$540.02	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$441.97	$383.07	-$58.9	46% 861-1029 (1890)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$231.16	$383.07	+$151.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$210.81	—	-$210.81
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 67.7¢	$439.59	$398.77	-$11.17	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 74.5¢	$524.21	$367.12	+$8.6	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 74¢	$2.3K	$411.5	-$157.5	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 26.9¢	$259.64	$205.2	-$54.44	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.9¢	$158.37	—	-$158.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$101.27	$205.2	+$103.93
BO bosona	Upavg 65.2¢	$360.68	$319.69	-$40.99	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
AL almachCTR	Downavg 33.1¢	$249.65	—	-$249.65	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 66¢	$213.89	$274.58	+$60.69	54% 4655-4026 (8681)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.1¢	$279	$224.61	-$45.83	53% 977-882 (1859)
OhioAI	Upavg 64.8¢	$193.64	$200.17	+$6.53	50% 849-842 (1691)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 67.4¢	$179.97	$250	+$70.03	48% 2455-2651 (5106)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 73.8¢	$158.05	$172.38	+$14.34	51% 879-837 (1716)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 58¢	$134.85	$173.78	+$38.92	48% 807-879 (1686)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

43%

332-444 (776)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

924-7 (931)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

45%

617-764 (1381)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$1,515.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$166.58

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

Both legs:

Up$936.3169.4¢+$412.29

Down$578.8740¢-$578.87

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$860.6

PnL

-$25.15

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

Both legs:

Up$430.350¢+$444.32

Down$464.6250¢-$469.47

blue.birds

Invested

$815.22

Value

$866.48

PnL

+$70.86

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$710.43

Value

$687.9

PnL

-$22.53

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$630.56

Value

$620.44

PnL

-$10.13

Record

44%

821-1031 (1852)

Both legs:

Up$368.7759.4¢+$251.67

Down$261.7931.2¢-$261.79

stepahead

Invested

$624.13

Value

$624.14

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

ply-pm0

Invested

$617.82

Value

$559.13

PnL

-$35.89

Record

34%

801-1536 (2337)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$592.17

Value

$484.53

PnL

-$1.64

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Up$246.1950.8¢+$248.65

Down$239.2546.6¢-$250.29

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$540.02

Value

—

PnL

-$540.02

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$441.97

Value

$383.07

PnL

-$58.9

Record

46%

861-1029 (1890)

Both legs:

Up$231.1660.3¢+$151.9

Down$210.8136.3¢-$210.81

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$439.59

Value

$398.77

PnL

-$11.17

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

asdcaxz

Invested

$524.21

Value

$367.12

PnL

+$8.6

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$2,290.01

Value

$411.5

PnL

-$157.5

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$259.64

Value

$205.2

PnL

-$54.44

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

Both legs:

Down$158.3726.9¢-$158.37

Up$101.2749.4¢+$103.93

bosona

Invested

$360.68

Value

$319.69

PnL

-$40.99

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$249.65

Value

—

PnL

-$249.65

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$213.89

Value

$274.58

PnL

+$60.69

Record

54%

4655-4026 (8681)

wzbbb

Invested

$279

Value

$224.61

PnL

-$45.83

Record

53%

977-882 (1859)

OhioAI

Invested

$193.64

Value

$200.17

PnL

+$6.53

Record

50%

849-842 (1691)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$179.97

Value

$250

PnL

+$70.03

Record

48%

2455-2651 (5106)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$158.05

Value

$172.38

PnL

+$14.34

Record

51%

879-837 (1716)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$134.85

Value

$173.78

PnL

+$38.92

Record

48%

807-879 (1686)

Smart Money Signal

32 of 47 top traders (68%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x57e0a015...1edf56

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794747600

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.2K

THG.

Up — $3.5K

machine-earning

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Up — $866.48

+$70.86

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $687.9

-$22.53

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$10.13

stepahead

Up — $624.14

+$0.01

ply-pm0

Up — $559.13

-$35.89

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