Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Signal

44 of 61 top traders (72%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up44 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares20,681

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,767

Combined PnL$-6.8K

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU suntori	Upavg 53.5¢	$2.8K	$5.3K	+$2.5K	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	43% 332-444 (776)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 924-7 (931)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$109.59	45% 617-764 (1381)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.3K	+$1.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.8K
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 98.4¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$119.49	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 75.5¢	$967.76	$956.59	-$11.17	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 60.6¢	$787.94	$860.08	+$72.14	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
machinelearned	Upavg 79.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$64.19	47% 1167-1297 (2464)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 39.2¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.2K	59% 1137-785 (1922)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 51.6¢	$578.12	$721.4	+$143.29	44% 821-1031 (1852)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 65.8¢	$653.16	$632.13	-$21.03	52% 449-409 (858)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.7¢	$237.43	—	-$237.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.8¢	$415.73	$632.13	+$216.41
ST stepahead	Upavg 64.2¢	$672.09	$681.13	+$9.05	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 82.7¢	$750.29	$625.02	-$125.27	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 62.8¢	$665.52	$609.59	-$55.92	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 50.7¢	$537.08	$574.95	+$37.87	34% 801-1536 (2337)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$578.88	$489.43	-$6.78	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$246.7	$489.43	+$245.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.5¢	$250.81	—	-$251.93
AL almach	Upavg 92.5¢	$697.37	$499.99	-$197.38	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 64¢	$662.37	$360.82	+$18.33	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
MO mo-money	Upavg 89.2¢	$934.37	$334.32	-$231.66	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 63.5¢	$302.12	$250.4	-$51.72	46% 861-1029 (1890)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 71¢	$272.8	$212.39	-$43.15	53% 977-882 (1859)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 89.3¢	$263.84	$199.39	-$64.45	51% 864-835 (1699)
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh	Upavg 73¢	$142.14	$194.77	+$52.63	10% 52-466 (518)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR	Downavg 45¢	$213.18	—	-$213.18	51% 879-837 (1716)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$201.42	$167.95	-$33.47	54% 4655-4026 (8681)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$107.22	$167.95	+$60.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.7¢	$94.2	—	-$94.2

suntori

Invested

$2,842.01

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

43%

332-444 (776)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

924-7 (931)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$109.59

Record

45%

617-764 (1381)

Both legs:

Up$1,658.8550¢+$1.7K

Down$1,658.8550¢$-1.8K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$2,145.16

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$119.49

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

blue.birds

Invested

$967.76

Value

$956.59

PnL

-$11.17

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$787.94

Value

$860.08

PnL

+$72.14

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

machinelearned

Invested

$1,098.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$64.19

Record

47%

1167-1297 (2464)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$1,300.18

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$578.12

Value

$721.4

PnL

+$143.29

Record

44%

821-1031 (1852)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$653.16

Value

$632.13

PnL

-$21.03

Record

52%

449-409 (858)

Both legs:

Down$237.4328.7¢-$237.43

Up$415.7365.8¢+$216.41

stepahead

Invested

$672.09

Value

$681.13

PnL

+$9.05

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

asdcaxz

Invested

$750.29

Value

$625.02

PnL

-$125.27

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$665.52

Value

$609.59

PnL

-$55.92

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

ply-pm0

Invested

$537.08

Value

$574.95

PnL

+$37.87

Record

34%

801-1536 (2337)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$578.88

Value

$489.43

PnL

-$6.78

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Up$246.750.4¢+$245.15

Down$250.8148.5¢-$251.93

almach

Invested

$697.37

Value

$499.99

PnL

-$197.38

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$662.37

Value

$360.82

PnL

+$18.33

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

mo-money

Invested

$934.37

Value

$334.32

PnL

-$231.66

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

GoodFallen

Invested

$302.12

Value

$250.4

PnL

-$51.72

Record

46%

861-1029 (1890)

wzbbb

Invested

$272.8

Value

$212.39

PnL

-$43.15

Record

53%

977-882 (1859)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$263.84

Value

$199.39

PnL

-$64.45

Record

51%

864-835 (1699)

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Invested

$142.14

Value

$194.77

PnL

+$52.63

Record

10%

52-466 (518)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212CTR

Down

Invested

$213.18

Value

—

PnL

-$213.18

Record

51%

879-837 (1716)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$201.42

Value

$167.95

PnL

-$33.47

Record

54%

4655-4026 (8681)

Both legs:

Up$107.2263.8¢+$60.73

Down$94.236.7¢-$94.2

Smart Money Signal

44 of 61 top traders (72%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb203afbb...1f2ada

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794747300

Traders in this Market

suntori

Up — $5.3K

+$2.5K

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.9K

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$35

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$109.59

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.0K

-$119.49

blue.birds

Up — $956.59

-$11.17

CrouchPredictions

Up — $860.08

+$72.14

machinelearned

Up — $1.2K

+$64.19

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.2K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $721.4

+$143.29

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