Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
60
Down 33%
$7.4K
$-8.5K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 60 top traders (33%)20 hold an outcome priced under 50%37 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 43% 332-444 (776) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 617-764 (1381) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$18.61 | 99% 924-7 (931) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 65.5¢ | $509.72 | $558.47 | +$48.75 | 59% 1137-785 (1922) |
BO bosona | Upavg 80.6¢ | $567.01 | $592.05 | +$25.04 | 51% 4872-4649 (9521) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $568.54 | $499.55 | +$2.12 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 72.4¢ | $377.95 | $404.98 | +$27.03 | 34% 801-1536 (2337) |
AL almach | Upavg 75.7¢ | $344.32 | $405.21 | +$90.21 | 51% 1622-1530 (3152) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63.9¢ | $372.54 | $391.34 | +$18.8 | 55% 4579-3695 (8274) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 44.8¢ | $222.93 | — | -$222.93 | 48% 1151-1270 (2421) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 86.7¢ | $306.67 | $259.08 | -$47.59 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 91¢ | $405.6 | $240 | -$163.44 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $225.04 | $222.5 | -$2.54 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 65.5¢ | $222.18 | $223.05 | +$0.88 | 44% 821-1031 (1852) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 83.8¢ | $172.5 | $179.22 | +$6.71 | 52% 1628-1527 (3155) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 66¢ | $150.18 | $155.45 | +$8.59 | 46% 861-1029 (1890) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $78.12 | $151.56 | +$73.45 | 51% 879-837 (1716) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 72.7¢ | $470.02 | $128.69 | -$1.75 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 75.8¢ | $157.67 | $120 | -$37.67 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $101.03 | $141.58 | +$40.55 | 50% 870-854 (1724) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 48.6¢ | $286.95 | — | -$286.95 | 47% 1167-1297 (2464) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 57.9¢ | $91.91 | $100.9 | +$31.78 | 54% 4655-4026 (8681) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 76¢ | $109.99 | $99.99 | -$10 | 52% 449-409 (858) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR<$100 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $89.19 | — | -$89.19 | 51% 865-844 (1709) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $82.43 | $91.03 | +$8.6 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
43%
332-444 (776)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
617-764 (1381)
Invested
$1,842.25
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.61
Record
99%
924-7 (931)
Invested
$509.72
Value
$558.47
PnL
+$48.75
Record
59%
1137-785 (1922)
Invested
$567.01
Value
$592.05
PnL
+$25.04
Record
51%
4872-4649 (9521)
Invested
$568.54
Value
$499.55
PnL
+$2.12
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$377.95
Value
$404.98
PnL
+$27.03
Record
34%
801-1536 (2337)
Invested
$344.32
Value
$405.21
PnL
+$90.21
Record
51%
1622-1530 (3152)
Invested
$372.54
Value
$391.34
PnL
+$18.8
Record
55%
4579-3695 (8274)
Invested
$222.93
Value
—
PnL
-$222.93
Record
48%
1151-1270 (2421)
Invested
$306.67
Value
$259.08
PnL
-$47.59
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$405.6
Value
$240
PnL
-$163.44
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$225.04
Value
$222.5
PnL
-$2.54
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$222.18
Value
$223.05
PnL
+$0.88
Record
44%
821-1031 (1852)
Invested
$172.5
Value
$179.22
PnL
+$6.71
Record
52%
1628-1527 (3155)
Invested
$150.18
Value
$155.45
PnL
+$8.59
Record
46%
861-1029 (1890)
Invested
$78.12
Value
$151.56
PnL
+$73.45
Record
51%
879-837 (1716)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$470.02
Value
$128.69
PnL
-$1.75
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$157.67
Value
$120
PnL
-$37.67
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
Invested
$101.03
Value
$141.58
PnL
+$40.55
Record
50%
870-854 (1724)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$286.95
Value
—
PnL
-$286.95
Record
47%
1167-1297 (2464)
FairValueMachineInvested
$91.91
Value
$100.9
PnL
+$31.78
Record
54%
4655-4026 (8681)
Invested
$109.99
Value
$99.99
PnL
-$10
Record
52%
449-409 (858)
Invested
$89.19
Value
—
PnL
-$89.19
Record
51%
865-844 (1709)
Invested
$82.43
Value
$91.03
PnL
+$8.6
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $1.9K
Bonereaper
Up — $558.47
bosona
Up — $592.05
ByteBadger92
Up — $499.55
ply-pm0
Up — $404.98
almach
Up — $405.21
stepahead
Up — $391.34
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0