Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 45%

22 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

$195.04

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 47 top traders (45%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares19,051

Combined PnL+$6.1K

Up26 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,081

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$71.08	53% 1555-1392 (2947)
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.2K	+$75.39	43% 332-444 (776)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.1K	$4.2K	+$2.2K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 924-7 (931)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	+$188.07	45% 617-764 (1381)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.6K	$3.3K	+$1.7K
0X 0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118	Downavg 46.1¢	$5.1K	$3.2K	+$5.7K	50% 24-24 (48)
BoneOhio	Downavg 98¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$61.5	70% 1783-757 (2540)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$384.91	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$816.39	—	-$816.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$708.68	$1.1K	+$431.48
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 65.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$282.8	59% 1137-785 (1922)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.1¢	$636.91	—	-$636.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$426.57	$1.3K	+$919.71
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 59.4¢	$1.2K	$934.44	-$276.08	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$622.71	—	-$622.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$587.81	$934.44	+$346.63
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	50% 1714-1745 (3459)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 91.3¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$450.66	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68¢	$566.17	—	-$566.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$115.52
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 86.9¢	$1.2K	$930.74	-$253.48	52% 449-409 (858)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.8¢	$375.82	—	-$375.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.9¢	$808.4	$930.74	+$122.34
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 33.7¢	$461.63	—	-$461.63	30% 572-1335 (1907)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 63.3¢	$811.63	$874.73	+$63.1	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$428.03	—	-$428.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.9¢	$383.6	$874.73	+$491.14
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 50¢	$570.25	—	-$570.25	44% 821-1031 (1852)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 72.3¢	$702.31	—	-$701.88	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 91.5¢	$893.76	$694	-$199.76	51% 865-844 (1709)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$258.72	—	-$258.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.5¢	$635.04	$694	+$58.96
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 33.1¢	$263.23	—	-$263.23	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$623.6	$445.96	-$45.96	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$273.65	—	-$273.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$206.66	$445.96	+$227.59
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$681.63	$335.78	-$345.85	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$382.78	—	-$382.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 89¢	$298.84	$335.78	+$36.94
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 84¢	$596.47	$451.58	-$144.89	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$216.98	—	-$216.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$379.49	$451.58	+$72.09
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Upavg 51¢	$282.22	—	-$282.22	51% 864-835 (1699)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$354.61	$355.03	+$0.42	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$224.45	—	-$224.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.7¢	$130.16	$355.03	+$224.87
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR	Upavg 42.1¢	$297.85	—	-$297.85	47% 795-912 (1707)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$518.45	$504	-$14.45	51% 879-837 (1716)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.5¢	$400.68	$504	+$103.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$117.77	—	-$117.77

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$7,036.93

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$71.08

Record

53%

1555-1392 (2947)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$75.39

Record

43%

332-444 (776)

Both legs:

Up$2,105.5650¢$-2.1K

Down$2,105.5750¢+$2.2K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

924-7 (931)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$188.07

Record

45%

617-764 (1381)

Both legs:

Up$1,641.6550¢$-1.5K

Down$1,641.6550¢+$1.7K

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

Down

Invested

$5,107.21

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

50%

24-24 (48)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,088.49

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$61.5

Record

70%

1783-757 (2540)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,525.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$384.91

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

Both legs:

Up$816.3951.4¢-$816.39

Down$708.6862.2¢+$431.48

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$1,063.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$282.8

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

Both legs:

Up$636.9165.1¢-$636.91

Down$426.5731.7¢+$919.71

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$1,210.52

Value

$934.44

PnL

-$276.08

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

Both legs:

Up$622.7159.4¢-$622.71

Down$587.8162.9¢+$346.63

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

1714-1745 (3459)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,780.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$450.66

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

Both legs:

Up$566.1768¢-$566.17

Down$1,213.8991.3¢+$115.52

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,184.22

Value

$930.74

PnL

-$253.48

Record

52%

449-409 (858)

Both legs:

Up$375.8238.8¢-$375.82

Down$808.486.9¢+$122.34

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$461.63

Value

—

PnL

-$461.63

Record

30%

572-1335 (1907)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$811.63

Value

$874.73

PnL

+$63.1

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

Both legs:

Up$428.0363.3¢-$428.03

Down$383.643.9¢+$491.14

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$570.25

Value

—

PnL

-$570.25

Record

44%

821-1031 (1852)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$702.31

Value

—

PnL

-$701.88

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$893.76

Value

$694

PnL

-$199.76

Record

51%

865-844 (1709)

Both legs:

Up$258.7249.7¢-$258.72

Down$635.0491.5¢+$58.96

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$263.23

Value

—

PnL

-$263.23

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$623.6

Value

$445.96

PnL

-$45.96

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Up$273.6552.3¢-$273.55

Down$206.6646.3¢+$227.59

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$681.63

Value

$335.78

PnL

-$345.85

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

Both legs:

Up$382.7874.3¢-$382.78

Down$298.8489¢+$36.94

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$596.47

Value

$451.58

PnL

-$144.89

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

Both legs:

Up$216.9856¢-$216.98

Down$379.4984¢+$72.09

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Invested

$282.22

Value

—

PnL

-$282.22

Record

51%

864-835 (1699)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$354.61

Value

$355.03

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Both legs:

Up$224.4567.6¢-$224.45

Down$130.1636.7¢+$224.87

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR

Invested

$297.85

Value

—

PnL

-$297.85

Record

47%

795-912 (1707)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$518.45

Value

$504

PnL

-$14.45

Record

51%

879-837 (1716)

Both legs:

Down$400.6879.5¢+$103.32

Up$117.7758.3¢-$117.77

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 47 top traders (45%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf4a14145...918740

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794746700

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $7.1K

+$71.08

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$75.39

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$188.07

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

Down — $3.2K

+$5.7K

BoneOhio

Down — $3.1K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $1.0K

+$10

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