Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
72
Up 37%
9 arb excluded
$19.6K
$-3.9K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 72 top traders (39%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed44 hold an outcome priced under 50%48 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | +$85.06 | 43% 332-444 (776) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $2.1K | — | $-2.3K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $2.4K | $4.7K | +$2.3K | |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | +$54.31 | 45% 617-764 (1381) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.6K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.5K | +$1.7K | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 35.2¢ | $657.62 | $1.1K | +$476.84 | 44% 821-1031 (1852) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$872.48 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $688.2 | $812.04 | +$123.84 | 59% 1137-785 (1922) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.4¢ | $429.82 | — | -$429.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.8¢ | $258.38 | $812.04 | +$553.66 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 55¢ | $697.86 | $703.42 | +$5.56 | 34% 801-1536 (2337) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 924-7 (931) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 23¢ | $310.23 | — | -$310.23 | 48% 1151-1270 (2421) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $605.79 | $675.9 | +$70.11 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.7¢ | $425.86 | — | -$425.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.6¢ | $179.94 | $675.9 | +$495.96 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $794.37 | $681.8 | -$112.57 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.5¢ | $413.34 | — | -$413.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.9¢ | $381.03 | $681.8 | +$300.77 | |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $617.2 | $624.98 | +$7.78 | 55% 4579-3695 (8274) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.9¢ | $281.54 | — | -$281.54 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.7¢ | $335.66 | $624.98 | +$289.32 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.4¢ | $525.94 | — | -$469.57 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 53.2¢ | $384.96 | — | -$378.64 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 80.7¢ | $380.48 | $268.02 | -$112.46 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 60.6¢ | $326.72 | — | -$326.72 | 48% 807-879 (1686) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 50.3¢ | $181.27 | — | -$181.27 | 46% 861-1029 (1890) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 70.3¢ | $189.91 | — | -$189.91 | 47% 1167-1297 (2464) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 51.9¢ | $142.23 | $152.69 | +$10.47 | 52% 449-409 (858) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR | Downavg 33.8¢ | $128.79 | — | -$128.79 | 50% 870-854 (1724) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $885.46 | $894.4 | +$8.94 | 70% 1783-757 (2540) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $180.96 | $192.96 | +$12.01 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.4¢ | $133.88 | — | -$133.88 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.4¢ | $47.07 | $192.96 | +$145.89 | |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Downavg 29.2¢ | $94.22 | — | -$94.22 | 30% 572-1335 (1907) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Downavg 51.6¢ | $164.99 | — | -$164.99 | 51% 865-844 (1709) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Downavg 38.8¢ | $100.55 | — | -$100.55 | 47% 795-912 (1707) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $51.5 | — | -$45.02 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
arcsine-barristerARB<$100Invested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$85.06
Record
43%
332-444 (776)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$54.31
Record
45%
617-764 (1381)
Both legs:
Invested
$657.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$476.84
Record
44%
821-1031 (1852)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$872.48
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Invested
$688.2
Value
$812.04
PnL
+$123.84
Record
59%
1137-785 (1922)
Both legs:
Invested
$697.86
Value
$703.42
PnL
+$5.56
Record
34%
801-1536 (2337)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
924-7 (931)
Invested
$310.23
Value
—
PnL
-$310.23
Record
48%
1151-1270 (2421)
Invested
$605.79
Value
$675.9
PnL
+$70.11
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
Both legs:
Invested
$794.37
Value
$681.8
PnL
-$112.57
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Both legs:
Invested
$617.2
Value
$624.98
PnL
+$7.78
Record
55%
4579-3695 (8274)
Both legs:
Invested
$525.94
Value
—
PnL
-$469.57
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$384.96
Value
—
PnL
-$378.64
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$380.48
Value
$268.02
PnL
-$112.46
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$326.72
Value
—
PnL
-$326.72
Record
48%
807-879 (1686)
Invested
$181.27
Value
—
PnL
-$181.27
Record
46%
861-1029 (1890)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$189.91
Value
—
PnL
-$189.91
Record
47%
1167-1297 (2464)
Invested
$142.23
Value
$152.69
PnL
+$10.47
Record
52%
449-409 (858)
Invested
$128.79
Value
—
PnL
-$128.79
Record
50%
870-854 (1724)
BoneOhioInvested
$885.46
Value
$894.4
PnL
+$8.94
Record
70%
1783-757 (2540)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$180.96
Value
$192.96
PnL
+$12.01
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Both legs:
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
$94.22
Value
—
PnL
-$94.22
Record
30%
572-1335 (1907)
Invested
$164.99
Value
—
PnL
-$164.99
Record
51%
865-844 (1709)
Invested
$100.55
Value
—
PnL
-$100.55
Record
47%
795-912 (1707)
Invested
$51.5
Value
—
PnL
-$45.02
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $703.42
THG.
Up — $3.5K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded