Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

23 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 73¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 15

Up28¢Down72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

$154.92

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 72.5¢

+23% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 36 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up28%

Down73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,154

Combined PnL+$174.02

Up13 traders

Total Value$290

Total Shares709

Combined PnL-$19.1

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.4K	+$51.22	55% 494-399 (893)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.3K	$6.0K	+$1.7K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.1K	$2.5K	$-1.7K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0.13	42% 328-444 (772)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$525.13
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$525
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$76.59	45% 615-762 (1377)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$793.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$716.65
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$939.43	+$3.08	52% 3730-3475 (7205)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	$665	+$190
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$457.38	$274.43	-$186.92
BO bosona	Downavg 57.5¢	$604.86	$633.54	+$28.68	51% 4861-4639 (9500)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 53.7¢	$534.93	$558.98	+$24.05	59% 1132-778 (1910)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$323.02	$420.77	+$97.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$211.91	$138.22	-$73.69
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$542.63	$503.45	+$0.08	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$256.9	$356.18	+$99.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$243.29	$147.26	-$99.29
AL almach	Downavg 54.2¢	$272.62	$352.38	+$79.76	51% 1612-1521 (3133)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 54.8¢	$264.02	$272.77	+$8.76	55% 4570-3688 (8258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$162.28	$207.14	+$44.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.5¢	$101.74	$65.64	-$36.1
MO mo-money	Downavg 54¢	$165.22	$212.06	+$46.84	52% 1616-1518 (3134)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 57.4¢	$182.88	$188.12	+$5.24	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$171.76	$178.93	+$7.17	44% 814-1026 (1840)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$110.84	$129.11	+$18.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$60.92	$49.82	-$11.1
FairValueMachine	Downavg 64.9¢	$116.8	$126	+$9.2	54% 4651-4019 (8670)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 41.8¢	$129.74	$99.66	-$20.37	48% 1144-1261 (2405)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 52.8¢	$93.53	$92.95	-$0.58	47% 1159-1293 (2452)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 75.5¢	$111	$92.05	-$8.9	53% 972-875 (1847)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$71.37	$88.66	+$17.29	49% 3541-3613 (7154)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$61.14	$70.29	+$9.15	34% 796-1529 (2325)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.3¢	$28.64	$35.29	+$6.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$32.5	$35	+$2.5
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 65¢	$66.04	$62.48	-$3.56	60% 4116-2795 (6911)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$66.26	$62.01	-$4.24	52% 5145-4824 (9969)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$30.76	$34.12	+$3.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$35.5	$27.89	-$7.61
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100	Downavg 73.6¢	$54.17	$51.92	-$2.25	48% 800-874 (1674)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$55.75	$51.05	-$4.7	51% 856-832 (1688)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 75¢	$45.6	$42.56	-$3.04	58% 5145-3799 (8944)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$35.46	$42.09	+$6.63	46% 858-1021 (1879)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$39.46	$38.78	-$0.67	51% 870-835 (1705)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,786

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$51.22

Record

55%

494-399 (893)

Both legs:

Down$4,270.3950¢+$1.7K

Up$4,117.1450¢$-1.7K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0.13

Record

42%

328-444 (772)

Both legs:

Up$2,497.550¢+$525.13

Down$2,50050¢-$525

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$76.59

Record

45%

615-762 (1377)

Both legs:

Down$1,978.2450¢+$793.24

Up$1,789.2450¢-$716.65

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$939.43

PnL

+$3.08

Record

52%

3730-3475 (7205)

Both legs:

Invested

$604.86

Value

$633.54

PnL

+$28.68

Record

51%

4861-4639 (9500)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$534.93

Value

$558.98

PnL

+$24.05

Record

59%

1132-778 (1910)

Both legs:

Down$323.0253.7¢+$97.74

Up$211.9146¢-$73.69

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$542.63

Value

$503.45

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

Both legs:

Down$256.950.5¢+$99.37

Up$243.2949.6¢-$99.29

almach

Down

Invested

$272.62

Value

$352.38

PnL

+$79.76

Record

51%

1612-1521 (3133)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$264.02

Value

$272.77

PnL

+$8.76

Record

55%

4570-3688 (8258)

Both legs:

Down$162.2854.8¢+$44.86

Up$101.7446.5¢-$36.1

mo-money

Down

Invested

$165.22

Value

$212.06

PnL

+$46.84

Record

52%

1616-1518 (3134)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$182.88

Value

$188.12

PnL

+$5.24

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$171.76

Value

$178.93

PnL

+$7.17

Record

44%

814-1026 (1840)

Both legs:

Down$110.8460.1¢+$18.27

Up$60.9236.7¢-$11.1

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$116.8

Value

$126

PnL

+$9.2

Record

54%

4651-4019 (8670)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$129.74

Value

$99.66

PnL

-$20.37

Record

48%

1144-1261 (2405)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$93.53

Value

$92.95

PnL

-$0.58

Record

47%

1159-1293 (2452)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$111

Value

$92.05

PnL

-$8.9

Record

53%

972-875 (1847)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$71.37

Value

$88.66

PnL

+$17.29

Record

49%

3541-3613 (7154)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61.14

Value

$70.29

PnL

+$9.15

Record

34%

796-1529 (2325)

Both legs:

Invested

$66.04

Value

$62.48

PnL

-$3.56

Record

60%

4116-2795 (6911)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$66.26

Value

$62.01

PnL

-$4.24

Record

52%

5145-4824 (9969)

Both legs:

Down$30.7655.4¢+$3.36

Up$35.549¢-$7.61

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100

Down

Invested

$54.17

Value

$51.92

PnL

-$2.25

Record

48%

800-874 (1674)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$55.75

Value

$51.05

PnL

-$4.7

Record

51%

856-832 (1688)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$45.6

Value

$42.56

PnL

-$3.04

Record

58%

5145-3799 (8944)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$35.46

Value

$42.09

PnL

+$6.63

Record

46%

858-1021 (1879)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100

Down

Invested

$39.46

Value

$38.78

PnL

-$0.67

Record

51%

870-835 (1705)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 36 top traders (64%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.9%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.