Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
56
Up 76%
4 arb excluded
$13.3K
$-16.6K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 56 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-7.2K | 55% 494-399 (893) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 42% 328-444 (772) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 922-7 (929) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 615-762 (1377) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 65.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$67.68 | 59% 1132-778 (1910) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$892.8 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 81.4¢ | $935.87 | $793.81 | -$56.62 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
BO bosona | Upavg 78.3¢ | $1.0K | $733.85 | +$22.46 | 51% 4861-4639 (9500) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.8¢ | $711.1 | $644.03 | -$67.07 | 52% 5145-4824 (9969) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 76¢ | $717.14 | $672.7 | -$44.44 | 47% 1159-1293 (2452) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 60.8¢ | $561.09 | $567.81 | +$6.73 | 44% 814-1026 (1840) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 66.7¢ | $582.31 | $555.21 | -$27.1 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 40.3¢ | $510.25 | $447.27 | -$62.98 | 48% 1144-1261 (2405) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.7¢ | $186.29 | $447.27 | +$260.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.3¢ | $323.96 | — | -$323.96 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $660.99 | $491.68 | +$0.73 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 61.3¢ | $489.73 | $482.19 | -$7.54 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 61.6¢ | $402.91 | $384 | -$18.91 | 34% 796-1529 (2325) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 62¢ | $338.32 | $340.12 | +$1.81 | 55% 4570-3688 (8258) |
SU suntori | Upavg 97¢ | $280.37 | $289.04 | +$8.67 | 46% 3188-3736 (6924) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97¢ | $177.51 | $183 | +$5.49 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 82.3¢ | $168.06 | $167.18 | -$0.88 | 52% 445-405 (850) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 67.9¢ | $163.03 | $154.86 | -$8.16 | 54% 4651-4019 (8670) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 34¢ | $237.51 | — | -$224.91 | 46% 858-1021 (1879) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 61.8¢ | $135.46 | $135.45 | -$0.01 | 50% 846-834 (1680) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 84.2¢ | $167.42 | $122.98 | -$44.44 | 53% 972-875 (1847) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 84.8¢ | $116.07 | $120.49 | +$4.43 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
Invested
$8,926
Value
—
PnL
$-7.2K
Record
55%
494-399 (893)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
42%
328-444 (772)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
922-7 (929)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
615-762 (1377)
Invested
$1,125.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$67.68
Record
59%
1132-778 (1910)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$892.8
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$935.87
Value
$793.81
PnL
-$56.62
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$1,008.84
Value
$733.85
PnL
+$22.46
Record
51%
4861-4639 (9500)
Invested
$711.1
Value
$644.03
PnL
-$67.07
Record
52%
5145-4824 (9969)
machinelearnedInvested
$717.14
Value
$672.7
PnL
-$44.44
Record
47%
1159-1293 (2452)
Invested
$561.09
Value
$567.81
PnL
+$6.73
Record
44%
814-1026 (1840)
Invested
$582.31
Value
$555.21
PnL
-$27.1
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Invested
$510.25
Value
$447.27
PnL
-$62.98
Record
48%
1144-1261 (2405)
Both legs:
Invested
$660.99
Value
$491.68
PnL
+$0.73
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$489.73
Value
$482.19
PnL
-$7.54
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$402.91
Value
$384
PnL
-$18.91
Record
34%
796-1529 (2325)
Invested
$338.32
Value
$340.12
PnL
+$1.81
Record
55%
4570-3688 (8258)
Invested
$280.37
Value
$289.04
PnL
+$8.67
Record
46%
3188-3736 (6924)
Invested
$177.51
Value
$183
PnL
+$5.49
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
Invested
$168.06
Value
$167.18
PnL
-$0.88
Record
52%
445-405 (850)
FairValueMachineInvested
$163.03
Value
$154.86
PnL
-$8.16
Record
54%
4651-4019 (8670)
Invested
$237.51
Value
—
PnL
-$224.91
Record
46%
858-1021 (1879)
OhioAIInvested
$135.46
Value
$135.45
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
846-834 (1680)
Invested
$167.42
Value
$122.98
PnL
-$44.44
Record
53%
972-875 (1847)
Invested
$116.07
Value
$120.49
PnL
+$4.43
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
Up — $793.81
bosona
Up — $733.85
blue.birds
Up — $644.03
machinelearned
Up — $672.7