Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 66%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.5K

Combined PnL

$-7.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 59 top traders (66%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,969

Combined PnL$-7.8K

Down39 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares18,254

Combined PnL+$608.22

Up — 34%Down — 66%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-6.7K	55% 494-399 (893)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$167.5	42% 328-444 (772)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$115.11	45% 615-762 (1377)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.5	99% 922-7 (929)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 61.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$142.58	48% 1144-1261 (2405)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 61¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$112.05	59% 1132-778 (1910)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.1¢	$934.98	$973	+$38.02	98% 4326-89 (4415)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$938.61	+$18.69	52% 3730-3475 (7205)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 67.7¢	$794.65	$860.27	+$65.62	52% 5145-4824 (9969)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 65.5¢	$737.21	$750.1	+$12.89	49% 3541-3613 (7154)
ST stepahead	Downavg 67¢	$622.38	$681.29	+$58.91	55% 4570-3688 (8258)
AL almach	Downavg 74.4¢	$610.28	$601.16	-$9.12	51% 1612-1521 (3133)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 81¢	$594.05	$563.4	-$26.86	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
NIULAI4	Downavg 90.1¢	$486.36	$524.4	+$38.04	30% 566-1329 (1895)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.4¢	$601.96	$496.66	+$8.1	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 71.9¢	$435.15	$456.01	+$29.59	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 59.9¢	$285.7	$307.67	+$21.97	44% 814-1026 (1840)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 75.5¢	$211.11	$252	+$40.89	50% 865-848 (1713)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 64.2¢	$227.39	$239	+$11.61	51% 859-841 (1700)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$218.64	$199.99	-$18.64	52% 445-405 (850)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.5¢	$123	$199.99	+$77
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.9¢	$95.64	—	-$95.64
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 74¢	$205.58	$188.99	-$16.59	47% 789-907 (1696)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 61.3¢	$155.41	$183.82	+$28.41	49% 917-951 (1868)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 30.7¢	$233.17	—	-$233.17	46% 858-1021 (1879)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 76.6¢	$155.92	$154.54	-$0.38	67% 3836-1923 (5759)
MO mo-money	Downavg 74.5¢	$143.52	$137.93	-$5.59	52% 1616-1518 (3134)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,661

Value

—

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

55%

494-399 (893)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$167.5

Record

42%

328-444 (772)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$115.11

Record

45%

615-762 (1377)

Both legs:

Down$1,816.6950¢+$1.9K

Up$1,810.5850¢$-1.8K

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,336.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.5

Record

99%

922-7 (929)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,085.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$142.58

Record

48%

1144-1261 (2405)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,291.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$112.05

Record

59%

1132-778 (1910)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$934.98

Value

$973

PnL

+$38.02

Record

98%

4326-89 (4415)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$938.61

PnL

+$18.69

Record

52%

3730-3475 (7205)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$794.65

Value

$860.27

PnL

+$65.62

Record

52%

5145-4824 (9969)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$737.21

Value

$750.1

PnL

+$12.89

Record

49%

3541-3613 (7154)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$622.38

Value

$681.29

PnL

+$58.91

Record

55%

4570-3688 (8258)

almach

Down

Invested

$610.28

Value

$601.16

PnL

-$9.12

Record

51%

1612-1521 (3133)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$594.05

Value

$563.4

PnL

-$26.86

Record

50%

4510-4587 (9097)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$486.36

Value

$524.4

PnL

+$38.04

Record

30%

566-1329 (1895)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$601.96

Value

$496.66

PnL

+$8.1

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$435.15

Value

$456.01

PnL

+$29.59

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$285.7

Value

$307.67

PnL

+$21.97

Record

44%

814-1026 (1840)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$211.11

Value

$252

PnL

+$40.89

Record

50%

865-848 (1713)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$227.39

Value

$239

PnL

+$11.61

Record

51%

859-841 (1700)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$218.64

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$18.64

Record

52%

445-405 (850)

Both legs:

Down$12361.5¢+$77

Up$95.6441.9¢-$95.64

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$205.58

Value

$188.99

PnL

-$16.59

Record

47%

789-907 (1696)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$155.41

Value

$183.82

PnL

+$28.41

Record

49%

917-951 (1868)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$233.17

Value

—

PnL

-$233.17

Record

46%

858-1021 (1879)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$155.92

Value

$154.54

PnL

-$0.38

Record

67%

3836-1923 (5759)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$143.52

Value

$137.93

PnL

-$5.59

Record

52%

1616-1518 (3134)

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 59 top traders (66%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf15377f5...92bfbd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794745500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-6.7K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$167.5

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$115.11

THG.

Down — $1.3K

+$13.5

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

+$142.58

Bonereaper

Down — $1.2K

-$112.05

hoodquant

Down — $973

+$38.02

soswald1

Down — $938.61

+$18.69

blue.birds

Down — $860.27

+$65.62

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $750.1

+$12.89

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