Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Up 67%
5 arb excluded
$18.2K
$-9.1K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 53 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $7.6K | -$16.16 | 55% 494-399 (893) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 42% 328-444 (772) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 922-7 (929) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 615-762 (1377) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 63.2¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$63.17 | 59% 1132-778 (1910) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$924 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 70.3¢ | $461.25 | $508 | +$46.75 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $543.47 | $494.18 | -$1.96 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 89¢ | $411.61 | $433.84 | +$22.22 | 52% 1616-1518 (3134) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 74¢ | $477.75 | $427.62 | -$49.39 | 52% 5145-4824 (9969) |
BO bosona | Upavg 78.5¢ | $472.77 | $540.83 | +$68.06 | 51% 4861-4639 (9500) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 76.9¢ | $436.93 | $430.48 | -$6.45 | 47% 1159-1293 (2452) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 64.6¢ | $315.61 | $325.06 | +$9.45 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 61.9¢ | $296.54 | $319.25 | +$22.72 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 67.7¢ | $315.54 | $307.13 | -$8.42 | 34% 796-1529 (2325) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $487.74 | $239.59 | -$248.15 | 51% 1612-1521 (3133) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82.8¢ | $198.36 | $239.59 | +$41.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.5¢ | $289.38 | — | -$289.38 | |
ST stepahead | Upavg 70.9¢ | $251.73 | $277.47 | +$25.74 | 55% 4570-3688 (8258) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $244.54 | $143.5 | -$101.04 | 48% 1144-1261 (2405) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67¢ | $96.21 | $143.5 | +$47.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30¢ | $148.33 | — | -$148.33 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 33.7¢ | $282.19 | — | -$256.09 | 44% 814-1026 (1840) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.8¢ | $124.13 | $176 | +$51.87 | 48% 800-874 (1674) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.8¢ | $92.91 | $176 | +$83.09 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.8¢ | $31.22 | — | -$31.22 | |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 87¢ | $130.5 | $150 | +$19.5 | 70% 1777-756 (2533) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 63.8¢ | $89.4 | $124.14 | +$34.74 | 53% 972-875 (1847) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $149.91 | $99.67 | -$50.24 | 46% 858-1021 (1879) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 65.7¢ | $65.47 | $99.67 | +$34.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.5¢ | $84.43 | — | -$84.43 | |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 71.5¢ | $129.28 | $107.38 | -$21.9 | 49% 917-951 (1868) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 74.7¢ | $128.23 | $94.57 | -$33.66 | 51% 856-832 (1688) |
Invested
$8,932
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$16.16
Record
55%
494-399 (893)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
42%
328-444 (772)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
922-7 (929)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
615-762 (1377)
Invested
$1,012.83
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$63.17
Record
59%
1132-778 (1910)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$924
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$461.25
Value
$508
PnL
+$46.75
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$543.47
Value
$494.18
PnL
-$1.96
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Invested
$411.61
Value
$433.84
PnL
+$22.22
Record
52%
1616-1518 (3134)
Invested
$477.75
Value
$427.62
PnL
-$49.39
Record
52%
5145-4824 (9969)
Invested
$472.77
Value
$540.83
PnL
+$68.06
Record
51%
4861-4639 (9500)
machinelearnedInvested
$436.93
Value
$430.48
PnL
-$6.45
Record
47%
1159-1293 (2452)
Invested
$315.61
Value
$325.06
PnL
+$9.45
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$296.54
Value
$319.25
PnL
+$22.72
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$315.54
Value
$307.13
PnL
-$8.42
Record
34%
796-1529 (2325)
Invested
$487.74
Value
$239.59
PnL
-$248.15
Record
51%
1612-1521 (3133)
Both legs:
Invested
$251.73
Value
$277.47
PnL
+$25.74
Record
55%
4570-3688 (8258)
Invested
$244.54
Value
$143.5
PnL
-$101.04
Record
48%
1144-1261 (2405)
Both legs:
Invested
$282.19
Value
—
PnL
-$256.09
Record
44%
814-1026 (1840)
Invested
$124.13
Value
$176
PnL
+$51.87
Record
48%
800-874 (1674)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$130.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$19.5
Record
70%
1777-756 (2533)
Invested
$89.4
Value
$124.14
PnL
+$34.74
Record
53%
972-875 (1847)
Invested
$149.91
Value
$99.67
PnL
-$50.24
Record
46%
858-1021 (1879)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.28
Value
$107.38
PnL
-$21.9
Record
49%
917-951 (1868)
Invested
$128.23
Value
$94.57
PnL
-$33.66
Record
51%
856-832 (1688)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.6K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
Up — $508
ByteBadger92
Up — $494.18
mo-money
Up — $433.84
blue.birds
Up — $427.62