Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Down 37%
4 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-17.6K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 53 top traders (38%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.1K | 55% 494-399 (893) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 42% 328-444 (772) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 615-762 (1377) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 57.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$104.86 | 59% 1132-778 (1910) |
SU suntori | Upavg 87.5¢ | $2.8K | $1.1K | +$304.57 | 46% 3188-3736 (6924) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$883.32 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
BO bosona | Upavg 57.4¢ | $1.5K | $865.65 | -$318.29 | 51% 4861-4639 (9500) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 67.5¢ | $837.05 | $853.16 | +$16.11 | 55% 4570-3688 (8258) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 75.4¢ | $780.37 | $727.13 | -$52.89 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 50.6¢ | $604.94 | $686.09 | +$134.55 | 44% 814-1026 (1840) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 36.7¢ | $647.94 | — | -$638.58 | 48% 1144-1261 (2405) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 60.4¢ | $878.69 | $630.42 | +$154.89 | 52% 1616-1518 (3134) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 69¢ | $561.9 | $612.68 | +$59.67 | 52% 5145-4824 (9969) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 48.2¢ | $603.13 | — | -$488.24 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 60.5¢ | $431.8 | — | -$431.8 | 51% 2104-2030 (4134) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 32.4¢ | $641.55 | $309.23 | -$332.32 | 47% 1159-1293 (2452) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.5¢ | $193.23 | $309.23 | +$116 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.4¢ | $448.32 | — | -$448.32 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 62.3¢ | $345.99 | $357.96 | +$16.13 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 47.1¢ | $240.23 | $267.87 | +$54.34 | 46% 858-1021 (1879) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 86.4¢ | $232.83 | $231.34 | -$1.5 | 30% 566-1329 (1895) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 64.3¢ | $206.58 | $196.54 | -$10.04 | 54% 4651-4019 (8670) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $200.26 | $154.88 | -$34.18 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 69.7¢ | $139.65 | $135.16 | -$1.62 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $146.31 | $96.5 | -$49.81 | 51% 870-835 (1705) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $98.28 | — | -$98.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $48.04 | $96.5 | +$48.47 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 46¢ | $102.84 | $126 | +$23.16 | 51% 859-841 (1700) |
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100 | Upavg 63.2¢ | $112.91 | $92.46 | -$20.45 | 49% 917-951 (1868) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.2¢ | $58.42 | $92.46 | +$34.04 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 36¢ | $54.49 | — | -$54.49 |
Invested
$8,716
Value
—
PnL
$-7.1K
Record
55%
494-399 (893)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
42%
328-444 (772)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
615-762 (1377)
Invested
$1,164.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$104.86
Record
59%
1132-778 (1910)
Invested
$2,790.42
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$304.57
Record
46%
3188-3736 (6924)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$883.32
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$1,546.6
Value
$865.65
PnL
-$318.29
Record
51%
4861-4639 (9500)
Invested
$837.05
Value
$853.16
PnL
+$16.11
Record
55%
4570-3688 (8258)
Invested
$780.37
Value
$727.13
PnL
-$52.89
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$604.94
Value
$686.09
PnL
+$134.55
Record
44%
814-1026 (1840)
Invested
$647.94
Value
—
PnL
-$638.58
Record
48%
1144-1261 (2405)
Invested
$878.69
Value
$630.42
PnL
+$154.89
Record
52%
1616-1518 (3134)
Invested
$561.9
Value
$612.68
PnL
+$59.67
Record
52%
5145-4824 (9969)
Invested
$603.13
Value
—
PnL
-$488.24
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Invested
$431.8
Value
—
PnL
-$431.8
Record
51%
2104-2030 (4134)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$641.55
Value
$309.23
PnL
-$332.32
Record
47%
1159-1293 (2452)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$345.99
Value
$357.96
PnL
+$16.13
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$240.23
Value
$267.87
PnL
+$54.34
Record
46%
858-1021 (1879)
NIULAI4Invested
$232.83
Value
$231.34
PnL
-$1.5
Record
30%
566-1329 (1895)
FairValueMachineInvested
$206.58
Value
$196.54
PnL
-$10.04
Record
54%
4651-4019 (8670)
Invested
$200.26
Value
$154.88
PnL
-$34.18
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Invested
$139.65
Value
$135.16
PnL
-$1.62
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
Invested
$146.31
Value
$96.5
PnL
-$49.81
Record
51%
870-835 (1705)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.84
Value
$126
PnL
+$23.16
Record
51%
859-841 (1700)
Invested
$112.91
Value
$92.46
PnL
-$20.45
Record
49%
917-951 (1868)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
suntori
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $865.65
stepahead
Up — $853.16
asdcaxz
Up — $727.13
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $686.09