Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
61
Down 82%
5 arb excluded
$40.5K
$-6.1K
Smart Money Signal
50 of 61 top traders (82%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-6.7K | 55% 494-399 (893) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $5.3K | $5.3K | +$53.48 | 53% 1545-1383 (2928) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$55.57 | 42% 328-444 (772) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$139.22 | 45% 615-762 (1377) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 922-7 (929) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 70% 1777-756 (2533) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$32.13 | 51% 2104-2030 (4134) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.7K | +$282.71 | 48% 1144-1261 (2405) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$108.16 | 34% 796-1529 (2325) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$16.94 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
AL almach | Downavg 89.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$109.71 | 51% 1612-1521 (3133) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 57.1¢ | $996.52 | $1.1K | +$74.38 | 59% 1132-778 (1910) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 90.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | +$143.65 | 52% 1616-1518 (3134) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$10 | 49% 1701-1739 (3440) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 64.7¢ | $1.1K | $962.13 | -$97.03 | 52% 5145-4824 (9969) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $925 | +$24.1 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.9¢ | $1.0K | $926.6 | +$36.51 | 51% 4861-4639 (9500) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 56.4¢ | $732.22 | $754 | +$28.22 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 65¢ | $684.85 | $591.64 | -$93.22 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.3¢ | $509.04 | $543.75 | +$34.71 | 55% 4570-3688 (8258) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $598.48 | $489.61 | +$28.12 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 36¢ | $487.17 | — | -$449.13 | 44% 814-1026 (1840) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 51.8¢ | $182.35 | $320.9 | +$138.55 | 47% 1159-1293 (2452) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 65¢ | $272.07 | $335.92 | +$63.84 | 54% 4651-4019 (8670) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $213.67 | $240.43 | +$26.76 | 50% 865-848 (1713) |
Invested
$8,570
Value
—
PnL
$-6.7K
Record
55%
494-399 (893)
Invested
$5,294.53
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$53.48
Record
53%
1545-1383 (2928)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$55.57
Record
42%
328-444 (772)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$139.22
Record
45%
615-762 (1377)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
922-7 (929)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
70%
1777-756 (2533)
Invested
$2,368.87
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$32.13
Record
51%
2104-2030 (4134)
Invested
$1,439.51
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$282.71
Record
48%
1144-1261 (2405)
Invested
$1,344.14
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$108.16
Record
34%
796-1529 (2325)
Invested
$1,155.26
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$16.94
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
Invested
$1,040.05
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$109.71
Record
51%
1612-1521 (3133)
Invested
$996.52
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$74.38
Record
59%
1132-778 (1910)
Invested
$1,288.05
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$143.65
Record
52%
1616-1518 (3134)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
49%
1701-1739 (3440)
Invested
$1,073.12
Value
$962.13
PnL
-$97.03
Record
52%
5145-4824 (9969)
Invested
$950
Value
$925
PnL
+$24.1
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$1,010.09
Value
$926.6
PnL
+$36.51
Record
51%
4861-4639 (9500)
Invested
$732.22
Value
$754
PnL
+$28.22
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$684.85
Value
$591.64
PnL
-$93.22
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Invested
$509.04
Value
$543.75
PnL
+$34.71
Record
55%
4570-3688 (8258)
Invested
$598.48
Value
$489.61
PnL
+$28.12
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Invested
$487.17
Value
—
PnL
-$449.13
Record
44%
814-1026 (1840)
machinelearnedInvested
$182.35
Value
$320.9
PnL
+$138.55
Record
47%
1159-1293 (2452)
FairValueMachineInvested
$272.07
Value
$335.92
PnL
+$63.84
Record
54%
4651-4019 (8670)
Invested
$213.67
Value
$240.43
PnL
+$26.76
Record
50%
865-848 (1713)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $5.3K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.7K
ply-pm0
Down — $1.5K
hoodquant
Down — $1.2K