Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

$-15.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

46 of 56 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,895

Combined PnL$-15.5K

Down46 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares14,643

Combined PnL+$408.76

Up — 18%Down — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-7.0K	55% 494-399 (893)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	42% 328-444 (772)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.4K	45% 615-762 (1377)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$31.54	99% 922-7 (929)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 80.3¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$213.77	59% 1132-778 (1910)
machinelearned	Downavg 83.6¢	$812.68	$897.75	+$85.07	47% 1159-1293 (2452)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 85.7¢	$840.92	$823.3	-$3.67	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
ST stepahead	Downavg 75¢	$673.91	$717.62	+$43.71	55% 4570-3688 (8258)
BO bosona	Downavg 80.5¢	$534.26	$663.86	+$129.59	51% 4861-4639 (9500)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 92.9¢	$568.57	$612	+$43.43	42% 1993-2712 (4705)
MO mo-money	Downavg 86.1¢	$561.14	$645.16	+$84.01	52% 1616-1518 (3134)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$587.43	$588.02	+$0.59	53% 1545-1383 (2928)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 80.3¢	$624.51	$547.06	-$39.35	44% 814-1026 (1840)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 52.5¢	$557.57	$490.01	+$10.89	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 83.6¢	$492.3	$365.83	-$126.48	48% 1144-1261 (2405)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.6¢	$305.78	$365.83	+$60.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.8¢	$186.52	—	-$186.52
AL almach	Downavg 84.2¢	$361.53	$427.96	+$66.42	51% 1612-1521 (3133)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 82.5¢	$373.54	$276.44	-$38.41	53% 972-875 (1847)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 81.5¢	$469.33	$271.55	-$11.94	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
LI Little-big	Downavg 71¢	$171.73	$242	+$70.27	51% 1099-1042 (2141)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 73.6¢	$195.84	$256.81	+$60.97	51% 859-841 (1700)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 85.9¢	$235.09	$227.67	-$7.42	49% 3541-3613 (7154)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 88.5¢	$213.59	$207.98	-$5.61	67% 3836-1923 (5759)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 77.6¢	$158.32	$204.08	+$45.76	58% 5145-3799 (8944)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80¢	$206.99	$192.54	-$14.46	52% 5145-4824 (9969)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 73.6¢	$146.29	$184.17	+$37.88	48% 800-874 (1674)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,699

Value

—

PnL

$-7.0K

Record

55%

494-399 (893)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

42%

328-444 (772)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

45%

615-762 (1377)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,122.8

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.54

Record

99%

922-7 (929)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,880.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$213.77

Record

59%

1132-778 (1910)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$812.68

Value

$897.75

PnL

+$85.07

Record

47%

1159-1293 (2452)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$840.92

Value

$823.3

PnL

-$3.67

Record

50%

4510-4587 (9097)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$673.91

Value

$717.62

PnL

+$43.71

Record

55%

4570-3688 (8258)

bosona

Down

Invested

$534.26

Value

$663.86

PnL

+$129.59

Record

51%

4861-4639 (9500)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$568.57

Value

$612

PnL

+$43.43

Record

42%

1993-2712 (4705)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$561.14

Value

$645.16

PnL

+$84.01

Record

52%

1616-1518 (3134)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$587.43

Value

$588.02

PnL

+$0.59

Record

53%

1545-1383 (2928)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$624.51

Value

$547.06

PnL

-$39.35

Record

44%

814-1026 (1840)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$557.57

Value

$490.01

PnL

+$10.89

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$492.3

Value

$365.83

PnL

-$126.48

Record

48%

1144-1261 (2405)

Both legs:

Down$305.7883.6¢+$60.05

Up$186.5225.8¢-$186.52

almach

Down

Invested

$361.53

Value

$427.96

PnL

+$66.42

Record

51%

1612-1521 (3133)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$373.54

Value

$276.44

PnL

-$38.41

Record

53%

972-875 (1847)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$469.33

Value

$271.55

PnL

-$11.94

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$171.73

Value

$242

PnL

+$70.27

Record

51%

1099-1042 (2141)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$195.84

Value

$256.81

PnL

+$60.97

Record

51%

859-841 (1700)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$235.09

Value

$227.67

PnL

-$7.42

Record

49%

3541-3613 (7154)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$213.59

Value

$207.98

PnL

-$5.61

Record

67%

3836-1923 (5759)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$158.32

Value

$204.08

PnL

+$45.76

Record

58%

5145-3799 (8944)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$206.99

Value

$192.54

PnL

-$14.46

Record

52%

5145-4824 (9969)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$146.29

Value

$184.17

PnL

+$37.88

Record

48%

800-874 (1674)

Smart Money Signal

Down

46 of 56 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x61984a6c...117d05

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794744000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.2K

+$31.54

Bonereaper

Down — $1.7K

-$213.77

machinelearned

Down — $897.75

+$85.07

asdcaxz

Down — $823.3

-$3.67

stepahead

Down — $717.62

+$43.71

bosona

Down — $663.86

+$129.59

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $612

+$43.43

Trade on Polymarket