Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 43 top traders (65%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares15,983

Combined PnL+$607.13

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,380

Combined PnL$-5.5K

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	$7.6K	-$156.89	55% 494-399 (893)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	42% 328-444 (772)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 922-7 (929)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$112.67	45% 615-762 (1377)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
SU suntori	Downavg 62.4¢	$934.57	$1.5K	+$562.99	46% 3188-3736 (6924)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$121.45	59% 1132-778 (1910)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 34.9¢	$517.55	$426.44	-$91.1	48% 1144-1261 (2405)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$244.75	$426.44	+$181.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$272.8	—	-$272.8
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$557.73	$492.86	-$2.9	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$250.68	$492.86	+$247.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$246.58	—	-$250.39
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.7¢	$382.65	$376.87	-$4.91	34% 796-1529 (2325)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$376.23	$353.81	-$22.41	55% 4570-3688 (8258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$230.67	$353.81	+$123.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.6¢	$145.56	—	-$145.56
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 78.2¢	$472.77	$333.53	-$139.24	44% 814-1026 (1840)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 63.7¢	$311.37	$369.02	+$57.65	52% 5145-4824 (9969)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.7¢	$235.17	$369.02	+$133.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$76.2	—	-$76.2
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$228.89	—	-$228.89	51% 2104-2030 (4134)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$299	$281.05	-$17.95	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$216.15	$281.05	+$64.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.9¢	$82.85	—	-$82.85
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 61.3¢	$211.28	$202.99	-$8.29	46% 858-1021 (1879)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.3¢	$124.43	$202.99	+$78.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.4¢	$86.85	—	-$86.85
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$314.88	$147.27	-$61.97	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$91.31	$147.27	+$50.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$120.21	—	-$112.71
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 42.9¢	$166.67	—	-$166.67	47% 1159-1293 (2452)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 60¢	$108.62	$165.99	+$57.36	54% 4651-4019 (8670)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 62.4¢	$134.81	$130	-$4.81	49% 3541-3613 (7154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.4¢	$81.06	$130	+$48.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.2¢	$53.75	—	-$53.75
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$95	$100	+$5	52% 445-405 (850)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$64	$100	+$36
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$31	—	-$31
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$86.53	$92.69	+$9.51	62% 4490-2713 (7203)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$89.86	$79.86	-$10	50% 846-834 (1680)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.1¢	$51.96	$79.86	+$27.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.2¢	$37.9	—	-$37.9
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98¢	$88.2	$90	+$1.8	98% 4326-89 (4415)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 81.3¢	$76	$84.13	+$12.29	59% 1063-750 (1813)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$57.85	$77.88	+$20.03	67% 3836-1923 (5759)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,994

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$156.89

Record

55%

494-399 (893)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

42%

328-444 (772)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

922-7 (929)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$112.67

Record

45%

615-762 (1377)

Both legs:

Down$1,678.0850¢+$1.8K

Up$1,916.3850¢$-1.9K

suntori

Down

Invested

$934.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$562.99

Record

46%

3188-3736 (6924)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,269.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$121.45

Record

59%

1132-778 (1910)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$517.55

Value

$426.44

PnL

-$91.1

Record

48%

1144-1261 (2405)

Both legs:

Down$244.7557.4¢+$181.7

Up$272.834.9¢-$272.8

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$557.73

Value

$492.86

PnL

-$2.9

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

Both legs:

Down$250.6850.9¢+$247.5

Up$246.5848.3¢-$250.39

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$382.65

Value

$376.87

PnL

-$4.91

Record

34%

796-1529 (2325)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$376.23

Value

$353.81

PnL

-$22.41

Record

55%

4570-3688 (8258)

Both legs:

Down$230.6765.2¢+$123.14

Up$145.5638.6¢-$145.56

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$472.77

Value

$333.53

PnL

-$139.24

Record

44%

814-1026 (1840)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$311.37

Value

$369.02

PnL

+$57.65

Record

52%

5145-4824 (9969)

Both legs:

Down$235.1763.7¢+$133.85

Up$76.232.4¢-$76.2

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$228.89

Value

—

PnL

-$228.89

Record

51%

2104-2030 (4134)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$299

Value

$281.05

PnL

-$17.95

Record

50%

4510-4587 (9097)

Both legs:

Down$216.1576.9¢+$64.9

Up$82.8539.9¢-$82.85

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$211.28

Value

$202.99

PnL

-$8.29

Record

46%

858-1021 (1879)

Both legs:

Down$124.4361.3¢+$78.56

Up$86.8533.4¢-$86.85

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$314.88

Value

$147.27

PnL

-$61.97

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

Both legs:

Down$91.3162¢+$50.74

Up$120.2137.6¢-$112.71

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$166.67

Value

—

PnL

-$166.67

Record

47%

1159-1293 (2452)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$108.62

Value

$165.99

PnL

+$57.36

Record

54%

4651-4019 (8670)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$134.81

Value

$130

PnL

-$4.81

Record

49%

3541-3613 (7154)

Both legs:

Down$81.0662.4¢+$48.94

Up$53.7538.2¢-$53.75

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95

Value

$100

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

445-405 (850)

Both legs:

Invested

$86.53

Value

$92.69

PnL

+$9.51

Record

62%

4490-2713 (7203)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$89.86

Value

$79.86

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

846-834 (1680)

Both legs:

Down$51.9665.1¢+$27.9

Up$37.933.2¢-$37.9

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$88.2

Value

$90

PnL

+$1.8

Record

98%

4326-89 (4415)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$76

Value

$84.13

PnL

+$12.29

Record

59%

1063-750 (1813)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$57.85

Value

$77.88

PnL

+$20.03

Record

67%

3836-1923 (5759)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 43 top traders (65%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe0c1f992...6630a8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794743700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $7.6K

-$156.89

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $0

$-4.9K

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$112.67

suntori

Down — $1.5K

+$562.99

Bonereaper

Down — $1.4K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Down — $376.87

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded