Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 37% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
54
Up 36%
3 arb excluded
$8.9K
$-15.7K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 54 top traders (37%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%38 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.3K | 55% 494-399 (893) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 42% 328-444 (772) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.7K | 45% 615-762 (1377) |
SU suntori | Downavg 95.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$126.77 | 46% 3188-3736 (6924) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$2.16 | 53% 1545-1383 (2928) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 87.8¢ | $696.35 | $697.42 | +$1.06 | 52% 5145-4824 (9969) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $548.62 | $485.96 | -$1.98 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86.7¢ | $434.64 | $445.57 | +$10.93 | 47% 1159-1293 (2452) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 89.8¢ | $377.52 | $229.45 | -$148.07 | 59% 1132-778 (1910) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.8¢ | $206.02 | $229.45 | +$23.43 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.5¢ | $171.5 | — | -$171.5 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 80.7¢ | $284.8 | $300 | +$15.2 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $276.02 | $209.7 | -$66.33 | 44% 814-1026 (1840) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86.2¢ | $180.75 | $209.7 | +$28.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.8¢ | $95.28 | — | -$95.28 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 77.9¢ | $207.36 | $225.97 | +$18.61 | 51% 4861-4639 (9500) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $192.99 | $193.54 | +$0.55 | 34% 796-1529 (2325) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 72.9¢ | $284.75 | $203.33 | +$17.58 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 75.6¢ | $169.19 | $157.58 | -$11.61 | 55% 4570-3688 (8258) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 66¢ | $111.12 | $117.42 | +$6.29 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 68.7¢ | $82.57 | $105.55 | +$22.99 | 52% 445-405 (850) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 31.1¢ | $115.49 | — | -$115.49 | 48% 1144-1261 (2405) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $61.88 | $81.51 | +$19.63 | 47% 789-907 (1696) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $65.04 | $67 | +$1.97 | 52% 1616-1518 (3134) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78.8¢ | $50.37 | $63.89 | +$13.52 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $55.61 | $63 | +$7.39 | 51% 870-835 (1705) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $78.08 | $29.3 | -$48.78 | 46% 858-1021 (1879) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.9¢ | $52.88 | — | -$52.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 86¢ | $25.2 | $29.3 | +$4.1 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 86.9¢ | $55.48 | $55 | -$0.48 | 53% 998-893 (1891) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 79.9¢ | $67.78 | $48 | +$3.34 | 59% 1063-750 (1813) |
Invested
$8,669
Value
—
PnL
$-7.3K
Record
55%
494-399 (893)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
42%
328-444 (772)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.7K
Record
45%
615-762 (1377)
Invested
$2,495.95
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$126.77
Record
46%
3188-3736 (6924)
Invested
$2,152.91
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$2.16
Record
53%
1545-1383 (2928)
Invested
$696.35
Value
$697.42
PnL
+$1.06
Record
52%
5145-4824 (9969)
Invested
$548.62
Value
$485.96
PnL
-$1.98
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
machinelearnedInvested
$434.64
Value
$445.57
PnL
+$10.93
Record
47%
1159-1293 (2452)
Invested
$377.52
Value
$229.45
PnL
-$148.07
Record
59%
1132-778 (1910)
Both legs:
Invested
$284.8
Value
$300
PnL
+$15.2
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$276.02
Value
$209.7
PnL
-$66.33
Record
44%
814-1026 (1840)
Both legs:
Invested
$207.36
Value
$225.97
PnL
+$18.61
Record
51%
4861-4639 (9500)
Invested
$192.99
Value
$193.54
PnL
+$0.55
Record
34%
796-1529 (2325)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$284.75
Value
$203.33
PnL
+$17.58
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$169.19
Value
$157.58
PnL
-$11.61
Record
55%
4570-3688 (8258)
Invested
$111.12
Value
$117.42
PnL
+$6.29
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Invested
$82.57
Value
$105.55
PnL
+$22.99
Record
52%
445-405 (850)
Invested
$115.49
Value
—
PnL
-$115.49
Record
48%
1144-1261 (2405)
Invested
$61.88
Value
$81.51
PnL
+$19.63
Record
47%
789-907 (1696)
Invested
$65.04
Value
$67
PnL
+$1.97
Record
52%
1616-1518 (3134)
Invested
$50.37
Value
$63.89
PnL
+$13.52
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
Invested
$55.61
Value
$63
PnL
+$7.39
Record
51%
870-835 (1705)
Invested
$78.08
Value
$29.3
PnL
-$48.78
Record
46%
858-1021 (1879)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.48
Value
$55
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
998-893 (1891)
Invested
$67.78
Value
$48
PnL
+$3.34
Record
59%
1063-750 (1813)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
suntori
Down — $2.6K
0x50f7
Down — $2.2K
blue.birds
Down — $697.42
ByteBadger92
Down — $485.96
machinelearned
Down — $445.57
Bonereaper
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $300