Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

-$238.67

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 41 top traders (73%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down30 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,871

Combined PnL+$386.58

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,329

Combined PnL-$625.25

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$7.4K	+$39.93	55% 494-399 (893)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.7K	$7.4K	+$4.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.6K	—	$-4.0K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$5.95	42% 328-444 (772)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$46.02	45% 615-762 (1377)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$24.17	51% 2104-2030 (4134)
RO Rock.San	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.01	94% 166-10 (176)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$698.24	$682.56	-$15.68	59% 1132-778 (1910)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.9¢	$253.88	—	-$253.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.1¢	$444.36	$682.56	+$238.2
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$524.48	$528.42	+$3.94	48% 1144-1261 (2405)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.1¢	$205.77	—	-$205.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$318.71	$528.42	+$209.71
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$547	$523.13	-$23.87	55% 4570-3688 (8258)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.9¢	$391.68	$523.13	+$131.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$155.32	—	-$155.32
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$481.57	$433.91	-$47.66	44% 814-1026 (1840)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.6¢	$186.24	—	-$186.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.1¢	$295.32	$433.91	+$138.59
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$544.37	$492.41	+$7.47	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$238.95	—	-$247.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$251.5	$492.41	+$254.51
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$524.16	$506.17	-$18	52% 5145-4824 (9969)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.8¢	$378.51	$506.17	+$127.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$145.65	—	-$145.65
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 85.3¢	$395.85	$392.63	+$3.14	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$350.7	$325.68	-$25.02	46% 858-1021 (1879)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.8¢	$114.53	—	-$114.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.5¢	$236.17	$325.68	+$89.51
machinelearned	Downavg 69¢	$431.32	$600	+$168.68	47% 1159-1293 (2452)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$210.34	$240.54	+$30.2	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$152.2	$240.54	+$88.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$58.14	—	-$58.14
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 70¢	$188.01	$195	+$6.99	54% 4651-4019 (8670)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70¢	$136.55	$195	+$58.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.3¢	$51.46	—	-$51.46
BO bosona	Downavg 74.9¢	$246.43	$320.23	+$73.81	51% 4861-4639 (9500)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 88¢	$134.95	$150.09	+$15.35	67% 3836-1923 (5759)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$85.34	$68.09	-$17.26	51% 859-841 (1700)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.8¢	$40.76	—	-$40.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$44.58	$68.09	+$23.5
OhioAI	Downavg 69.5¢	$136.82	$131.79	-$4.27	50% 846-834 (1680)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$138.75	$120.46	-$18.3	52% 1616-1518 (3134)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$51.6	—	-$51.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.4¢	$87.15	$120.46	+$33.3
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$125.74	$109.47	-$16.28	53% 972-875 (1847)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$53.63	—	-$53.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$72.11	$109.47	+$37.36
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 70.6¢	$104.86	$147.11	+$42.25	52% 445-405 (850)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.6¢	$103.86	$147.11	+$43.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$1	—	-$1
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 8.1¢	$27.27	—	-$27.27	62% 4490-2713 (7203)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.8¢	$176.24	$180.25	+$4.01	98% 4326-89 (4415)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,828

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$39.93

Record

55%

494-399 (893)

Both legs:

Down$3,699.2950¢+$4.0K

Up$3,611.3250¢$-4.0K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$5.95

Record

42%

328-444 (772)

Both legs:

Up$2,47850¢$-2.5K

Down$2,497.550¢+$2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$46.02

Record

45%

615-762 (1377)

Both legs:

Up$1,760.8650¢$-1.8K

Down$1,793.3850¢+$1.9K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,332.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$24.17

Record

51%

2104-2030 (4134)

Rock.San

Down

Invested

$1,006.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.01

Record

94%

166-10 (176)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$698.24

Value

$682.56

PnL

-$15.68

Record

59%

1132-778 (1910)

Both legs:

Up$253.8833.9¢-$253.88

Down$444.3665.1¢+$238.2

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.48

Value

$528.42

PnL

+$3.94

Record

48%

1144-1261 (2405)

Both legs:

Up$205.7727.1¢-$205.77

Down$318.7160.3¢+$209.71

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$547

Value

$523.13

PnL

-$23.87

Record

55%

4570-3688 (8258)

Both legs:

Down$391.6874.9¢+$131.45

Up$155.3231¢-$155.32

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$481.57

Value

$433.91

PnL

-$47.66

Record

44%

814-1026 (1840)

Both legs:

Up$186.2432.6¢-$186.24

Down$295.3268.1¢+$138.59

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$544.37

Value

$492.41

PnL

+$7.47

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

Both legs:

Up$238.9548.2¢-$247.04

Down$251.551.1¢+$254.51

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.16

Value

$506.17

PnL

-$18

Record

52%

5145-4824 (9969)

Both legs:

Down$378.5174.8¢+$127.66

Up$145.6538.1¢-$145.65

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$395.85

Value

$392.63

PnL

+$3.14

Record

50%

4510-4587 (9097)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$350.7

Value

$325.68

PnL

-$25.02

Record

46%

858-1021 (1879)

Both legs:

Up$114.5330.8¢-$114.53

Down$236.1772.5¢+$89.51

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$431.32

Value

$600

PnL

+$168.68

Record

47%

1159-1293 (2452)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$210.34

Value

$240.54

PnL

+$30.2

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

Both legs:

Down$152.263.3¢+$88.35

Up$58.1429.5¢-$58.14

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.01

Value

$195

PnL

+$6.99

Record

54%

4651-4019 (8670)

Both legs:

Down$136.5570¢+$58.45

Up$51.4631.3¢-$51.46

bosona

Down

Invested

$246.43

Value

$320.23

PnL

+$73.81

Record

51%

4861-4639 (9500)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$134.95

Value

$150.09

PnL

+$15.35

Record

67%

3836-1923 (5759)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.34

Value

$68.09

PnL

-$17.26

Record

51%

859-841 (1700)

Both legs:

Up$40.7620.8¢-$40.76

Down$44.5865.5¢+$23.5

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$136.82

Value

$131.79

PnL

-$4.27

Record

50%

846-834 (1680)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$138.75

Value

$120.46

PnL

-$18.3

Record

52%

1616-1518 (3134)

Both legs:

Up$51.637¢-$51.6

Down$87.1572.4¢+$33.3

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$125.74

Value

$109.47

PnL

-$16.28

Record

53%

972-875 (1847)

Both legs:

Up$53.6336.4¢-$53.63

Down$72.1165.9¢+$37.36

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$104.86

Value

$147.11

PnL

+$42.25

Record

52%

445-405 (850)

Both legs:

Down$103.8670.6¢+$43.25

Up$11¢-$1

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$27.27

Value

—

PnL

-$27.27

Record

62%

4490-2713 (7203)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$176.24

Value

$180.25

PnL

+$4.01

Record

98%

4326-89 (4415)

Smart Money Signal

Down

30 of 41 top traders (73%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc6b60a3d...15a513

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794743100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.4K

+$24.17

Rock.San

Down — $1.0K

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded