Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.1K

Smart Money Signal

51 of 68 top traders (75%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%42 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up51 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares21,994

Combined PnL+$469.38

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,811

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	$7.1K	+$123.09	55% 494-399 (893)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	+$30.32	42% 328-444 (772)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.6K	45% 615-762 (1377)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 75.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$146.23	59% 1132-778 (1910)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$950	—	-$910.1	52% 3730-3475 (7205)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$888.53	$902.43	+$13.9	98% 4326-89 (4415)
machinelearned	Upavg 84.9¢	$815.73	$902.98	+$87.25	47% 1159-1293 (2452)
BO bosona	Upavg 93.1¢	$715.12	$767.78	+$52.67	51% 4861-4639 (9500)
AL almach	Upavg 95.3¢	$615.71	$640.74	+$25.03	51% 1612-1521 (3133)
MO mo-money	Upavg 95.8¢	$558.48	$582.69	+$24.21	52% 1616-1518 (3134)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 54.2¢	$577.22	$496.42	+$10.37	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 80.1¢	$465.31	$508.63	+$43.32	52% 5145-4824 (9969)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 81.3¢	$544.32	$486.65	-$57.67	48% 1144-1261 (2405)
ST stepahead	Upavg 79.1¢	$447.01	$493.88	+$46.87	55% 4570-3688 (8258)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 90.6¢	$463.11	$450	-$13.11	34% 796-1529 (2325)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 81.1¢	$461.43	$365.84	-$95.24	44% 814-1026 (1840)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 77.3¢	$352.67	$235	+$12.33	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 75.3¢	$158.74	$149.43	-$9.31	46% 858-1021 (1879)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 90¢	$132.33	$135.01	+$2.68	53% 998-893 (1891)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 98¢	$217.94	$132	-$85.94	51% 2104-2030 (4134)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 79¢	$176.67	$128.14	+$1.62	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 77.8¢	$112.67	$134.99	+$22.32	59% 1063-750 (1813)
NIULAI4	Upavg 83.4¢	$94.16	$108.14	+$13.98	30% 566-1329 (1895)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 56¢	$69.99	$99.99	+$29.99	52% 445-405 (850)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 91.5¢	$101.48	$87.65	-$13.83	44% 2338-3018 (5356)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,532

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$123.09

Record

55%

494-399 (893)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$30.32

Record

42%

328-444 (772)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

45%

615-762 (1377)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,203.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$146.23

Record

59%

1132-778 (1910)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$950

Value

—

PnL

-$910.1

Record

52%

3730-3475 (7205)

hoodquant

Invested

$888.53

Value

$902.43

PnL

+$13.9

Record

98%

4326-89 (4415)

machinelearned

Invested

$815.73

Value

$902.98

PnL

+$87.25

Record

47%

1159-1293 (2452)

bosona

Invested

$715.12

Value

$767.78

PnL

+$52.67

Record

51%

4861-4639 (9500)

almach

Invested

$615.71

Value

$640.74

PnL

+$25.03

Record

51%

1612-1521 (3133)

mo-money

Invested

$558.48

Value

$582.69

PnL

+$24.21

Record

52%

1616-1518 (3134)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$577.22

Value

$496.42

PnL

+$10.37

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

blue.birds

Invested

$465.31

Value

$508.63

PnL

+$43.32

Record

52%

5145-4824 (9969)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$544.32

Value

$486.65

PnL

-$57.67

Record

48%

1144-1261 (2405)

stepahead

Invested

$447.01

Value

$493.88

PnL

+$46.87

Record

55%

4570-3688 (8258)

ply-pm0

Invested

$463.11

Value

$450

PnL

-$13.11

Record

34%

796-1529 (2325)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$461.43

Value

$365.84

PnL

-$95.24

Record

44%

814-1026 (1840)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$352.67

Value

$235

PnL

+$12.33

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

GoodFallen

Invested

$158.74

Value

$149.43

PnL

-$9.31

Record

46%

858-1021 (1879)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$132.33

Value

$135.01

PnL

+$2.68

Record

53%

998-893 (1891)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$217.94

Value

$132

PnL

-$85.94

Record

51%

2104-2030 (4134)

asdcaxz

Invested

$176.67

Value

$128.14

PnL

+$1.62

Record

50%

4510-4587 (9097)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$112.67

Value

$134.99

PnL

+$22.32

Record

59%

1063-750 (1813)

NIULAI4

Invested

$94.16

Value

$108.14

PnL

+$13.98

Record

30%

566-1329 (1895)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$69.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$29.99

Record

52%

445-405 (850)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$101.48

Value

$87.65

PnL

-$13.83

Record

44%

2338-3018 (5356)

Smart Money Signal

51 of 68 top traders (75%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%42 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x82cc6f85...3ac16b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794742800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.1K

+$123.09

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.8K

+$30.32

machine-earning

CTR

Down — $0

$-3.6K

Bonereaper

Up — $1.3K

+$146.23

soswald1

CTR

Down — $0

-$910.1

hoodquant

Up — $902.43

+$13.9

machinelearned

Up — $902.98

+$87.25

bosona

Up — $767.78

+$52.67

almach

Up — $640.74

+$25.03

mo-money

Up — $582.69

+$24.21

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