Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
42 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Down (79%) · Down at 100¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Down
53
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$20.4K
$729.99
69.9¢ → 100¢
+43% since entry · 42 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
42 of 53 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.6K | +$55.22 | 55% 477-387 (864) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$1.11 | 53% 1518-1369 (2887) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 91.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$53.11 | 48% 1126-1234 (2360) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 69.4¢ | $893.08 | $1.2K | +$325.38 | 47% 1141-1280 (2421) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $944.47 | +$5.07 | 52% 3683-3445 (7128) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 76.6¢ | $812.78 | $941.11 | +$170.44 | 59% 1116-760 (1876) |
BO bosona | Downavg 73.2¢ | $645.09 | $858.8 | +$213.71 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 80.9¢ | $563.82 | $586.12 | +$22.3 | 55% 4545-3668 (8213) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 85.8¢ | $808.2 | $557.65 | -$44.43 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $533.33 | $498.94 | +$10.23 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $391.08 | $386.1 | -$4.98 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 96¢ | $257.59 | $258.59 | +$1 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 93.2¢ | $227.34 | $235.6 | +$8.31 | 67% 3766-1879 (5645) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 97.5¢ | $254.91 | $201.65 | -$10.17 | 62% 4407-2657 (7064) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $154.06 | $177.08 | +$23.03 | 48% 785-858 (1643) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 81.6¢ | $159.19 | $156.27 | -$2.93 | 46% 843-1002 (1845) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 83.1¢ | $155.28 | $154.43 | +$19.21 | 52% 5118-4806 (9924) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 85.8¢ | $182.17 | $152.22 | -$29.94 | 50% 3495-3507 (7002) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 86.1¢ | $169.57 | $150.37 | -$19.2 | 44% 799-1007 (1806) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $144.64 | $147.45 | +$2.81 | 53% 970-876 (1846) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $131.83 | $128.2 | -$3.63 | 51% 2054-1988 (4042) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.9¢ | $69.15 | $69.91 | +$0.76 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $62.68 | $58.29 | -$4.39 | |
AL almach | Downavg 94.2¢ | $110.02 | $117.21 | +$7.19 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 87.5¢ | $198.6 | $101.9 | -$26.49 | 52% 952-862 (1814) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $75.68 | $101.66 | +$25.97 | 51% 843-825 (1668) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 69¢ | $75 | $100 | +$25 | 52% 431-391 (822) |
Invested
$8,701
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$55.22
Record
55%
477-387 (864)
Invested
$2,220.09
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.11
Record
53%
1518-1369 (2887)
Invested
$1,615.05
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$53.11
Record
48%
1126-1234 (2360)
machinelearnedInvested
$893.08
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$325.38
Record
47%
1141-1280 (2421)
Invested
$950
Value
$944.47
PnL
+$5.07
Record
52%
3683-3445 (7128)
Invested
$812.78
Value
$941.11
PnL
+$170.44
Record
59%
1116-760 (1876)
Invested
$645.09
Value
$858.8
PnL
+$213.71
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
Invested
$563.82
Value
$586.12
PnL
+$22.3
Record
55%
4545-3668 (8213)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$808.2
Value
$557.65
PnL
-$44.43
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Invested
$533.33
Value
$498.94
PnL
+$10.23
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Invested
$391.08
Value
$386.1
PnL
-$4.98
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Invested
$257.59
Value
$258.59
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Invested
$227.34
Value
$235.6
PnL
+$8.31
Record
67%
3766-1879 (5645)
Invested
$254.91
Value
$201.65
PnL
-$10.17
Record
62%
4407-2657 (7064)
Invested
$154.06
Value
$177.08
PnL
+$23.03
Record
48%
785-858 (1643)
Invested
$159.19
Value
$156.27
PnL
-$2.93
Record
46%
843-1002 (1845)
Invested
$155.28
Value
$154.43
PnL
+$19.21
Record
52%
5118-4806 (9924)
Invested
$182.17
Value
$152.22
PnL
-$29.94
Record
50%
3495-3507 (7002)
Invested
$169.57
Value
$150.37
PnL
-$19.2
Record
44%
799-1007 (1806)
Invested
$144.64
Value
$147.45
PnL
+$2.81
Record
53%
970-876 (1846)
Invested
$131.83
Value
$128.2
PnL
-$3.63
Record
51%
2054-1988 (4042)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.02
Value
$117.21
PnL
+$7.19
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Invested
$198.6
Value
$101.9
PnL
-$26.49
Record
52%
952-862 (1814)
Invested
$75.68
Value
$101.66
PnL
+$25.97
Record
51%
843-825 (1668)
Invested
$75
Value
$100
PnL
+$25
Record
52%
431-391 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.6K
0x50f7
Down — $2.2K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.6K
machinelearned
Down — $1.2K
soswald1
Down — $944.47
Bonereaper
Down — $941.11
bosona
Down — $858.8
stepahead
Down — $586.12
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $557.65
ByteBadger92
Down — $498.94