Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Down 86%
4 arb excluded
$21.1K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 49 top traders (86%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.1K | +$100.02 | 55% 477-387 (864) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $4.1K | $8.1K | +$4.3K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.2K | |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$81.01 | 59% 1116-760 (1876) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$19.67 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 73.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$69.9 | 48% 1126-1234 (2360) |
BO bosona | Downavg 68.5¢ | $877.76 | $1.3K | +$404.48 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 72¢ | $798.16 | $1.1K | +$310.97 | 47% 1141-1280 (2421) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 67.9¢ | $530.05 | $780.17 | +$250.12 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $537.76 | $573.6 | +$35.85 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.9¢ | $377.9 | $573.6 | +$195.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.1¢ | $159.86 | — | -$159.86 | |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $507.09 | $538.51 | +$31.43 | 55% 4545-3668 (8213) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.9¢ | $354.99 | $538.51 | +$183.52 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.6¢ | $152.09 | — | -$152.09 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $535.33 | $495.49 | +$6.31 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
AL almach | Downavg 68.8¢ | $445.57 | $647.18 | +$201.62 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 76¢ | $388.83 | $339.47 | -$47 | 52% 952-862 (1814) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $252.45 | $293.21 | +$40.77 | 34% 778-1513 (2291) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66¢ | $193.61 | $293.21 | +$99.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.9¢ | $58.83 | — | -$58.83 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.7¢ | $315.62 | $259.27 | -$42.25 | 44% 799-1007 (1806) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.2¢ | $151.55 | $238.08 | +$86.53 | 52% 5118-4806 (9924) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $188.1 | $148.67 | -$39.43 | 50% 3495-3507 (7002) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 64¢ | $65 | $100 | +$35 | 52% 431-391 (822) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 51% 1073-1021 (2094) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 59.4¢ | $89.54 | $102 | +$12.45 | 51% 844-810 (1654) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 92.8¢ | $101.59 | $109.51 | +$7.92 | 58% 5126-3784 (8910) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $64.14 | $83.31 | +$19.17 | 67% 3766-1879 (5645) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $66.9 | $81 | +$14.1 | 52% 2912-2637 (5549) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $81.6 | $80 | +$3 | 54% 4636-4000 (8636) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $64.72 | $88.5 | +$23.77 | 51% 850-830 (1680) |
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $71.85 | $70 | -$1.85 | 49% 908-934 (1842) |
Invested
$8,939
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$100.02
Record
55%
477-387 (864)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,855.99
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$81.01
Record
59%
1116-760 (1876)
Invested
$1,455.33
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$19.67
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Invested
$1,338.8
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$69.9
Record
48%
1126-1234 (2360)
Invested
$877.76
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$404.48
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
machinelearnedInvested
$798.16
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$310.97
Record
47%
1141-1280 (2421)
Invested
$530.05
Value
$780.17
PnL
+$250.12
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$537.76
Value
$573.6
PnL
+$35.85
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Both legs:
Invested
$507.09
Value
$538.51
PnL
+$31.43
Record
55%
4545-3668 (8213)
Both legs:
Invested
$535.33
Value
$495.49
PnL
+$6.31
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Invested
$445.57
Value
$647.18
PnL
+$201.62
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Invested
$388.83
Value
$339.47
PnL
-$47
Record
52%
952-862 (1814)
Invested
$252.45
Value
$293.21
PnL
+$40.77
Record
34%
778-1513 (2291)
Both legs:
Invested
$315.62
Value
$259.27
PnL
-$42.25
Record
44%
799-1007 (1806)
Invested
$151.55
Value
$238.08
PnL
+$86.53
Record
52%
5118-4806 (9924)
Invested
$188.1
Value
$148.67
PnL
-$39.43
Record
50%
3495-3507 (7002)
Invested
$65
Value
$100
PnL
+$35
Record
52%
431-391 (822)
Invested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
51%
1073-1021 (2094)
Invested
$89.54
Value
$102
PnL
+$12.45
Record
51%
844-810 (1654)
Invested
$101.59
Value
$109.51
PnL
+$7.92
Record
58%
5126-3784 (8910)
Invested
$64.14
Value
$83.31
PnL
+$19.17
Record
67%
3766-1879 (5645)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$66.9
Value
$81
PnL
+$14.1
Record
52%
2912-2637 (5549)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$81.6
Value
$80
PnL
+$3
Record
54%
4636-4000 (8636)
Invested
$64.72
Value
$88.5
PnL
+$23.77
Record
51%
850-830 (1680)
Invested
$71.85
Value
$70
PnL
-$1.85
Record
49%
908-934 (1842)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Down — $1.9K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.3K
bosona
Down — $1.3K
machinelearned
Down — $1.1K
mo-money
Down — $780.17
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
stepahead
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
Down — $495.49