Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

$851.35

Smart Money Signal

25 of 46 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up25 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,155

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Down21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,274

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$7.7K	-$50.08	55% 477-387 (864)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.7K	+$3.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.7K	—	$-3.9K
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$354.35	59% 1116-760 (1876)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$746.19	$1.4K	+$630.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$985.14	—	-$985.14
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 46.1¢	$877.91	$1.1K	+$198.98	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$496.03	$1.1K	+$580.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.7¢	$381.87	—	-$381.87
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 63¢	$1.0K	$932.24	-$90.92	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$587.48	$932.24	+$344.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$435.68	—	-$435.68
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 64.3¢	$925.38	$851.3	-$23.68	34% 778-1513 (2291)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.3¢	$547.32	$851.3	+$284.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.2¢	$308.69	—	-$307.83
BL blue.birds	Upavg 56.6¢	$763.77	$744.92	-$17.45	52% 5118-4806 (9924)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 44.5¢	$539.02	$752.83	+$213.8	44% 799-1007 (1806)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$569.39	$486.26	-$18.18	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$246.26	$486.26	+$241.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$262.99	—	-$259.84
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 40.3¢	$554.63	$470.72	+$129.06	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 50.4¢	$420.29	$420.25	+$22.05	46% 843-1002 (1845)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 58.4¢	$314.57	$413.03	+$104.16	54% 4636-4000 (8636)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 44¢	$317.49	—	-$317.49	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
NIULAI4	Upavg 67.4¢	$350.48	$513.06	+$162.59	29% 547-1318 (1865)
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 55¢	$276	—	-$276	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$248.3	$232.13	-$16.18	51% 844-810 (1654)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$128.86	$232.13	+$103.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.7¢	$119.44	—	-$119.44
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 65.5¢	$188.19	$251.01	+$62.82	51% 850-821 (1671)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 35.7¢	$275.4	—	-$231	52% 952-862 (1814)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 84¢	$202.11	$178.81	-$23.3	48% 785-858 (1643)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84¢	$150.19	$178.81	+$28.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.3¢	$51.92	—	-$51.92
machinelearned	Upavg 85.9¢	$157.79	$150.18	-$7.61	47% 1141-1280 (2421)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 76.2¢	$184.32	$163.75	-$20.57	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 36.6¢	$101.75	$143.87	+$42.11	49% 908-934 (1842)
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 46.2¢	$109.65	$140	+$30.35	48% 2311-2552 (4863)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.2¢	$64.7	$140	+$75.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.4¢	$44.95	—	-$44.95
OhioAI	Upavg 40.6¢	$114.05	$135.99	+$36.54	50% 830-816 (1646)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 65.2¢	$102.25	$125	+$27.47	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 30.6¢	$92.61	$113.63	-$9.49	62% 4407-2657 (7064)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,949

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$50.08

Record

55%

477-387 (864)

Both legs:

Up$3,848.4650¢+$3.9K

Down$3,735.6850¢$-3.9K

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,731.33

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$354.35

Record

59%

1116-760 (1876)

Both legs:

Up$746.1954.2¢+$630.79

Down$985.1450.1¢-$985.14

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$877.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$198.98

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

Both legs:

Up$496.0346.1¢+$580.86

Down$381.8731.7¢-$381.87

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$1,023.16

Value

$932.24

PnL

-$90.92

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

Both legs:

Up$587.4863¢+$344.76

Down$435.6850.5¢-$435.68

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$925.38

Value

$851.3

PnL

-$23.68

Record

34%

778-1513 (2291)

Both legs:

Up$547.3264.3¢+$284.15

Down$308.6937.2¢-$307.83

blue.birds

Invested

$763.77

Value

$744.92

PnL

-$17.45

Record

52%

5118-4806 (9924)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$539.02

Value

$752.83

PnL

+$213.8

Record

44%

799-1007 (1806)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$569.39

Value

$486.26

PnL

-$18.18

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$246.2650.6¢+$241.66

Down$262.9951¢-$259.84

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$554.63

Value

$470.72

PnL

+$129.06

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

GoodFallen

Invested

$420.29

Value

$420.25

PnL

+$22.05

Record

46%

843-1002 (1845)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$314.57

Value

$413.03

PnL

+$104.16

Record

54%

4636-4000 (8636)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$317.49

Value

—

PnL

-$317.49

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

NIULAI4

Invested

$350.48

Value

$513.06

PnL

+$162.59

Record

29%

547-1318 (1865)

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$276

Value

—

PnL

-$276

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$248.3

Value

$232.13

PnL

-$16.18

Record

51%

844-810 (1654)

Both legs:

Up$128.8655.5¢+$103.27

Down$119.4456.7¢-$119.44

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$188.19

Value

$251.01

PnL

+$62.82

Record

51%

850-821 (1671)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$275.4

Value

—

PnL

-$231

Record

52%

952-862 (1814)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$202.11

Value

$178.81

PnL

-$23.3

Record

48%

785-858 (1643)

Both legs:

Up$150.1984¢+$28.62

Down$51.9226.3¢-$51.92

machinelearned

Invested

$157.79

Value

$150.18

PnL

-$7.61

Record

47%

1141-1280 (2421)

asdaefef

Invested

$184.32

Value

$163.75

PnL

-$20.57

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$101.75

Value

$143.87

PnL

+$42.11

Record

49%

908-934 (1842)

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$109.65

Value

$140

PnL

+$30.35

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

Both legs:

Up$64.746.2¢+$75.3

Down$44.9535.4¢-$44.95

OhioAI

Invested

$114.05

Value

$135.99

PnL

+$36.54

Record

50%

830-816 (1646)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$102.25

Value

$125

PnL

+$27.47

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$92.61

Value

$113.63

PnL

-$9.49

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

Smart Money Signal

25 of 46 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3de792b4...8e3fed

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794734700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Up — $744.92

-$17.45

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $752.83

+$213.8

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$18.18

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $470.72

+$129.06

GoodFallen

Up — $420.25

+$22.05

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