Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 80%
2 arb excluded
$21.0K
$-3.9K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 55 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $8.0K | +$108.17 | 55% 477-387 (864) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 61.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$69.45 | 48% 1126-1234 (2360) |
AL almach | Downavg 73¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$207.24 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3683-3445 (7128) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 64.1¢ | $920.5 | $937.15 | +$25.42 | 59% 1116-760 (1876) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $874.29 | $885 | +$10.71 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 55.1¢ | $665.17 | $711.56 | +$46.39 | 34% 778-1513 (2291) |
BO bosona | Downavg 58.8¢ | $1.5K | $816.34 | +$228.28 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 61.5¢ | $502 | $666.15 | +$164.15 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 39.7¢ | $605.6 | — | -$605.6 | 44% 799-1007 (1806) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 53¢ | $501.57 | $547.84 | +$46.27 | 55% 4545-3668 (8213) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.2¢ | $648.82 | $494.03 | +$12.13 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 57.9¢ | $919.18 | $491.07 | +$38.44 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 56.4¢ | $350.62 | $367.99 | +$30.2 | 54% 4636-4000 (8636) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 69.6¢ | $338.32 | $363.08 | +$24.76 | 51% 2054-1988 (4042) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 48.9¢ | $267.04 | $376.41 | +$109.37 | 46% 843-1002 (1845) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 93.2¢ | $314.53 | $325 | +$10.47 | 47% 1141-1280 (2421) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.5¢ | $269.1 | $311.5 | +$42.4 | 52% 5118-4806 (9924) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $213.7 | $223.93 | +$10.22 | 50% 3495-3507 (7002) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 66.1¢ | $172.97 | $207.86 | +$34.89 | 46% 768-894 (1662) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 60.5¢ | $163.86 | $185.91 | +$29.85 | 42% 834-1160 (1994) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 82.5¢ | $168.35 | $164.22 | +$7.87 | 52% 431-391 (822) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $164.14 | $158.76 | -$5.38 | 51% 844-810 (1654) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 82¢ | $125.35 | $150 | +$24.65 | 51% 1073-1021 (2094) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $135.97 | $114.99 | -$20.97 | 50% 908-909 (1817) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.9¢ | $74.53 | — | -$74.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.4¢ | $61.44 | $114.99 | +$53.56 |
Invested
$8,962
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$108.17
Record
55%
477-387 (864)
Invested
$2,055.17
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$69.45
Record
48%
1126-1234 (2360)
Invested
$1,232.1
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$207.24
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3683-3445 (7128)
Invested
$920.5
Value
$937.15
PnL
+$25.42
Record
59%
1116-760 (1876)
Invested
$874.29
Value
$885
PnL
+$10.71
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Invested
$665.17
Value
$711.56
PnL
+$46.39
Record
34%
778-1513 (2291)
Invested
$1,538.36
Value
$816.34
PnL
+$228.28
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
Invested
$502
Value
$666.15
PnL
+$164.15
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Invested
$605.6
Value
—
PnL
-$605.6
Record
44%
799-1007 (1806)
Invested
$501.57
Value
$547.84
PnL
+$46.27
Record
55%
4545-3668 (8213)
Invested
$648.82
Value
$494.03
PnL
+$12.13
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$919.18
Value
$491.07
PnL
+$38.44
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
FairValueMachineInvested
$350.62
Value
$367.99
PnL
+$30.2
Record
54%
4636-4000 (8636)
Invested
$338.32
Value
$363.08
PnL
+$24.76
Record
51%
2054-1988 (4042)
Invested
$267.04
Value
$376.41
PnL
+$109.37
Record
46%
843-1002 (1845)
machinelearnedInvested
$314.53
Value
$325
PnL
+$10.47
Record
47%
1141-1280 (2421)
Invested
$269.1
Value
$311.5
PnL
+$42.4
Record
52%
5118-4806 (9924)
Invested
$213.7
Value
$223.93
PnL
+$10.22
Record
50%
3495-3507 (7002)
Invested
$172.97
Value
$207.86
PnL
+$34.89
Record
46%
768-894 (1662)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$163.86
Value
$185.91
PnL
+$29.85
Record
42%
834-1160 (1994)
Invested
$168.35
Value
$164.22
PnL
+$7.87
Record
52%
431-391 (822)
Invested
$164.14
Value
$158.76
PnL
-$5.38
Record
51%
844-810 (1654)
Invested
$125.35
Value
$150
PnL
+$24.65
Record
51%
1073-1021 (2094)
Invested
$135.97
Value
$114.99
PnL
-$20.97
Record
50%
908-909 (1817)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $2.1K
almach
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $937.15
hoodquant
Down — $885
ply-pm0
Down — $711.56
bosona
Down — $816.34
mo-money
Down — $666.15
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0