Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$14.4K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 51 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$5.47 | 53% 1518-1369 (2887) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 89.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$106.46 | 48% 1126-1234 (2360) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$10.33 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3683-3445 (7128) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $891.93 | $900.94 | +$9.01 | 99% 912-7 (919) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.4¢ | $846.39 | $851.2 | +$4.81 | 50% 1679-1712 (3391) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 96.2¢ | $858.15 | $721.32 | -$136.83 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 74¢ | $549.26 | $615.21 | +$110.95 | 55% 477-387 (864) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $529.37 | $501.46 | +$1.25 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
AL almach | Downavg 95.5¢ | $481.63 | $415.26 | -$66.38 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.6¢ | $460.47 | $397.37 | -$63.11 | 59% 1116-760 (1876) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 79.3¢ | $358.27 | $338.01 | -$20.25 | 44% 799-1007 (1806) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.2¢ | $409.91 | $313.96 | +$3.06 | 53% 970-876 (1846) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.7¢ | $332.72 | $273.14 | -$59.57 | 55% 4545-3668 (8213) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 85.6¢ | $292.78 | $244.98 | -$47.8 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
BO bosona | Downavg 94¢ | $694.63 | $215.73 | +$9.68 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 62.7¢ | $102.46 | $111 | +$28.14 | 52% 5118-4806 (9924) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 90¢ | $107.7 | $93 | -$14.7 | 46% 768-894 (1662) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 40.5¢ | $94.21 | $76 | -$18.21 | 52% 952-862 (1814) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.6¢ | $46.85 | $76 | +$29.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.5¢ | $47.36 | — | -$47.36 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 88¢ | $103.02 | $91.5 | -$11.52 | 48% 785-858 (1643) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 97.8¢ | $79.24 | $81 | +$1.76 | 52% 2912-2637 (5549) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $55.74 | $73.12 | +$17.38 | 51% 850-830 (1680) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $67.5 | — | -$67.5 | 50% 908-909 (1817) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 80.1¢ | $51.36 | $51.84 | +$8.75 | 59% 1052-729 (1781) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 79.6¢ | $40.8 | $51.26 | +$10.46 | 60% 4054-2741 (6795) |
Invested
$5,459.78
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$5.47
Record
53%
1518-1369 (2887)
Invested
$1,147.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$106.46
Record
48%
1126-1234 (2360)
Invested
$1,023.11
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.33
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3683-3445 (7128)
Invested
$891.93
Value
$900.94
PnL
+$9.01
Record
99%
912-7 (919)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$846.39
Value
$851.2
PnL
+$4.81
Record
50%
1679-1712 (3391)
Invested
$858.15
Value
$721.32
PnL
-$136.83
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Invested
$549.26
Value
$615.21
PnL
+$110.95
Record
55%
477-387 (864)
Invested
$529.37
Value
$501.46
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Invested
$481.63
Value
$415.26
PnL
-$66.38
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Invested
$460.47
Value
$397.37
PnL
-$63.11
Record
59%
1116-760 (1876)
Invested
$358.27
Value
$338.01
PnL
-$20.25
Record
44%
799-1007 (1806)
Invested
$409.91
Value
$313.96
PnL
+$3.06
Record
53%
970-876 (1846)
Invested
$332.72
Value
$273.14
PnL
-$59.57
Record
55%
4545-3668 (8213)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$292.78
Value
$244.98
PnL
-$47.8
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Invested
$694.63
Value
$215.73
PnL
+$9.68
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
Invested
$102.46
Value
$111
PnL
+$28.14
Record
52%
5118-4806 (9924)
Invested
$107.7
Value
$93
PnL
-$14.7
Record
46%
768-894 (1662)
Invested
$94.21
Value
$76
PnL
-$18.21
Record
52%
952-862 (1814)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.02
Value
$91.5
PnL
-$11.52
Record
48%
785-858 (1643)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$79.24
Value
$81
PnL
+$1.76
Record
52%
2912-2637 (5549)
Invested
$55.74
Value
$73.12
PnL
+$17.38
Record
51%
850-830 (1680)
Invested
$67.5
Value
—
PnL
-$67.5
Record
50%
908-909 (1817)
Invested
$51.36
Value
$51.84
PnL
+$8.75
Record
59%
1052-729 (1781)
Invested
$40.8
Value
$51.26
PnL
+$10.46
Record
60%
4054-2741 (6795)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.0K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $900.94
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $851.2
mo-money
Down — $721.32
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $615.21
ByteBadger92
Down — $501.46
almach
Down — $415.26