Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

$88.48

Smart Money Signal

36 of 50 top traders (72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up36 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares13,734

Combined PnL+$498.19

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,060

Combined PnL-$409.71

Up — 72%Down — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	$8.6K	-$114.97	55% 477-387 (864)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.3K	$8.6K	+$4.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$4.3K	—	$-4.3K
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 69¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$381.51	59% 1116-760 (1876)
BO bosona	Upavg 72.8¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	+$210.71	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 67.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.63	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 67¢	$1.0K	$996.42	-$17.5	44% 799-1007 (1806)
AL almach	Upavg 67¢	$803.68	$1.0K	+$223.74	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 71.4¢	$793.43	$835.75	+$42.32	52% 5118-4806 (9924)
ST stepahead	Upavg 68¢	$686.21	$710.27	+$24.07	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
MO mo-money	Upavg 69.8¢	$907.65	$669.3	+$126.44	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
machinelearned	Upavg 79¢	$571.62	$648.97	+$77.35	47% 1141-1280 (2421)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 52.4¢	$581.81	$488.02	-$5.35	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.4¢	$255.57	$488.02	+$249.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$240.48	—	-$254.74
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71.4¢	$593.56	$468.15	-$10.68	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 67.5¢	$442.05	$465.53	+$23.48	34% 778-1513 (2291)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 69.7¢	$500.87	$458.08	-$42.79	46% 843-1002 (1845)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 77.4¢	$377.87	$352.5	-$25.37	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 89.1¢	$369.39	$350.53	-$18.86	53% 970-876 (1846)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 80.2¢	$345.18	$351.27	+$6.08	51% 850-830 (1680)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.9¢	$230.37	$249.83	+$23.48	52% 952-862 (1814)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 87.9¢	$245.97	$250.11	+$4.14	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 67.1¢	$230.69	$221.92	-$8.77	54% 4636-4000 (8636)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 64.4¢	$196.79	$193.9	-$2.89	46% 768-894 (1662)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 71¢	$172.71	$172.15	-$0.55	59% 1052-729 (1781)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 59.6¢	$126.4	$163	+$36.6	51% 844-810 (1654)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 96.2¢	$221.73	$150	-$71.73	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 60.3¢	$119.72	$150	+$30.28	42% 834-1160 (1994)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$9,003.39

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$114.97

Record

55%

477-387 (864)

Both legs:

Up$4,289.8650¢+$4.2K

Down$4,28549.9¢$-4.3K

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,834.1

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$381.51

Record

59%

1116-760 (1876)

bosona

Invested

$1,389.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$210.71

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,077.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.63

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,013.92

Value

$996.42

PnL

-$17.5

Record

44%

799-1007 (1806)

almach

Invested

$803.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$223.74

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

blue.birds

Invested

$793.43

Value

$835.75

PnL

+$42.32

Record

52%

5118-4806 (9924)

stepahead

Invested

$686.21

Value

$710.27

PnL

+$24.07

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

mo-money

Invested

$907.65

Value

$669.3

PnL

+$126.44

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

machinelearned

Invested

$571.62

Value

$648.97

PnL

+$77.35

Record

47%

1141-1280 (2421)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$581.81

Value

$488.02

PnL

-$5.35

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$255.5752.4¢+$249.4

Down$240.4847.1¢-$254.74

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$593.56

Value

$468.15

PnL

-$10.68

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

ply-pm0

Invested

$442.05

Value

$465.53

PnL

+$23.48

Record

34%

778-1513 (2291)

GoodFallen

Invested

$500.87

Value

$458.08

PnL

-$42.79

Record

46%

843-1002 (1845)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$377.87

Value

$352.5

PnL

-$25.37

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$369.39

Value

$350.53

PnL

-$18.86

Record

53%

970-876 (1846)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$345.18

Value

$351.27

PnL

+$6.08

Record

51%

850-830 (1680)

wzbbb

Invested

$230.37

Value

$249.83

PnL

+$23.48

Record

52%

952-862 (1814)

asdaefef

Invested

$245.97

Value

$250.11

PnL

+$4.14

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$230.69

Value

$221.92

PnL

-$8.77

Record

54%

4636-4000 (8636)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$196.79

Value

$193.9

PnL

-$2.89

Record

46%

768-894 (1662)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$172.71

Value

$172.15

PnL

-$0.55

Record

59%

1052-729 (1781)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$126.4

Value

$163

PnL

+$36.6

Record

51%

844-810 (1654)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$221.73

Value

$150

PnL

-$71.73

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$119.72

Value

$150

PnL

+$30.28

Record

42%

834-1160 (1994)

Smart Money Signal

36 of 50 top traders (72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x3379b6a3...d3ea19

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794733800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$114.97

Bonereaper

Up — $1.5K

-$381.51

bosona

Up — $1.1K

+$210.71

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

+$20.63

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $996.42

-$17.5

almach

Up — $1.0K

+$223.74

blue.birds

Up — $835.75

+$42.32

stepahead

Up — $710.27

+$24.07

mo-money

Up — $669.3

+$126.44

machinelearned

Up — $648.97

+$77.35

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