Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 87%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Signal

49 of 56 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up49 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares27,433

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares392

Combined PnL-$127.49

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.2K	+$47.6	55% 477-387 (864)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 912-7 (919)
BO bosona	Upavg 75.7¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$450.46	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 81.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$51.26	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 60.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$51.09	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 63.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$23.39	44% 799-1007 (1806)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.22	98% 4234-88 (4322)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 61.2¢	$992.18	$996.62	+$33.99	59% 1116-760 (1876)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3683-3445 (7128)
AL almach	Upavg 70.1¢	$708.62	$1.0K	+$302.25	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
MO mo-money	Upavg 56.4¢	$463.18	$821.77	+$358.59	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
ST stepahead	Upavg 53.2¢	$458.62	$519.57	+$60.95	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.6¢	$553.95	$500.14	+$1.77	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 64.6¢	$483.87	$497.99	+$14.12	46% 843-1002 (1845)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 77.2¢	$437.89	$471.09	+$33.2	52% 5118-4806 (9924)
machinelearned	Upavg 56.6¢	$353.12	$476.28	+$123.16	47% 1141-1280 (2421)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 86.4¢	$374.13	$325.48	-$48.66	53% 970-876 (1846)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 63.3¢	$242.57	$383.15	+$140.59	46% 768-894 (1662)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 73.9¢	$550.29	$264.47	+$35.34	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.4¢	$126.74	$136.4	+$9.66	34% 778-1513 (2291)
LI Little-big	Upavg 51¢	$127.78	$250.48	+$122.7	51% 1073-1021 (2094)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$103.99	$153.54	+$49.55	51% 850-830 (1680)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$72.49	$153.54	+$81.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$31.5	—	-$31.5
PB PBot-6ARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$93.49	$99.98	+$6.49	50% 908-909 (1817)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$52	—	-$52
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.5¢	$41.49	$99.98	+$58.49
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 75.8¢	$105.64	$92.29	-$13.35	48% 785-858 (1643)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$75.3	$90	+$14.7	48% 2415-2654 (5069)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,621

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$47.6

Record

55%

477-387 (864)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

912-7 (919)

bosona

Invested

$1,814.78

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$450.46

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,574.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$51.26

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,435.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$51.09

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,214.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.39

Record

44%

799-1007 (1806)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,209.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.22

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

Bonereaper

Invested

$992.18

Value

$996.62

PnL

+$33.99

Record

59%

1116-760 (1876)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

almach

Invested

$708.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$302.25

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

mo-money

Invested

$463.18

Value

$821.77

PnL

+$358.59

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

stepahead

Invested

$458.62

Value

$519.57

PnL

+$60.95

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$553.95

Value

$500.14

PnL

+$1.77

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

GoodFallen

Invested

$483.87

Value

$497.99

PnL

+$14.12

Record

46%

843-1002 (1845)

blue.birds

Invested

$437.89

Value

$471.09

PnL

+$33.2

Record

52%

5118-4806 (9924)

machinelearned

Invested

$353.12

Value

$476.28

PnL

+$123.16

Record

47%

1141-1280 (2421)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$374.13

Value

$325.48

PnL

-$48.66

Record

53%

970-876 (1846)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$242.57

Value

$383.15

PnL

+$140.59

Record

46%

768-894 (1662)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$550.29

Value

$264.47

PnL

+$35.34

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

ply-pm0

Invested

$126.74

Value

$136.4

PnL

+$9.66

Record

34%

778-1513 (2291)

Little-big

Invested

$127.78

Value

$250.48

PnL

+$122.7

Record

51%

1073-1021 (2094)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$103.99

Value

$153.54

PnL

+$49.55

Record

51%

850-830 (1680)

Both legs:

Invested

$93.49

Value

$99.98

PnL

+$6.49

Record

50%

908-909 (1817)

Both legs:

Down$5252¢-$52

Up$41.4941.5¢+$58.49

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$105.64

Value

$92.29

PnL

-$13.35

Record

48%

785-858 (1643)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$75.3

Value

$90

PnL

+$14.7

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

Smart Money Signal

49 of 56 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x18cfa0cc...98cdee

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794733500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.2K

+$47.6

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$35

bosona

Up — $2.3K

+$450.46

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.6K

+$51.26

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.5K

+$51.09

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.2K

+$23.39

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

+$12.22

Bonereaper

Up — $996.62

+$33.99

soswald1

Up — $950

+$0

almach

Up — $1.0K

+$302.25

Trade on Polymarket