Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.2K

Combined PnL

-$18.85

Smart Money Signal

23 of 39 top traders (59%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares11,681

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,750

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$7.4K	-$246.39	55% 477-387 (864)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.7K	$7.4K	+$3.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.8K	—	$-4.0K
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 98.9¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$61.21	53% 1518-1369 (2887)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 53.3¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$489.21	59% 1116-760 (1876)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 51.8¢	$884.17	$1.1K	+$266.32	44% 799-1007 (1806)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 63.5¢	$1.2K	$989.83	-$201.95	52% 5118-4806 (9924)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$1.0K	$851.83	-$164.83	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$466.2	—	-$466.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$550.47	$851.83	+$301.37
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 48.3¢	$774.4	$849.96	+$78.06	34% 778-1513 (2291)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$410.38	$849.96	+$440
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.6¢	$361.55	—	-$361.95
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$773.65	$758.34	-$15.31	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$423.89	$758.34	+$334.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.4¢	$349.76	—	-$349.76
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 56.5¢	$682.92	$782.82	+$99.9	46% 843-1002 (1845)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.5¢	$442.37	$782.82	+$340.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.8¢	$240.55	—	-$240.55
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$517.23	$530.68	+$13.46	52% 431-391 (822)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$215.05	—	-$215.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$302.18	$530.68	+$228.5
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$504.7	$560.77	+$56.07	54% 4636-4000 (8636)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$299.98	$560.77	+$260.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$204.72	—	-$204.72
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$615.54	$485.15	-$3.71	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$251.59	$485.15	+$244.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$236.38	—	-$248.01
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 43.9¢	$454.84	$300.5	+$48.28	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.9¢	$140.33	—	-$134.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.7¢	$134.31	$300.5	+$182.3
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$300.4	$233	-$67.4	51% 850-821 (1671)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43¢	$141.73	—	-$141.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.1¢	$158.67	$233	+$74.33
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 45.6¢	$188.45	$268.42	+$106.4	52% 952-862 (1814)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Downavg 53.3¢	$232.05	—	-$232.05	51% 844-810 (1654)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Downavg 47¢	$407.2	—	-$397.6	42% 834-1160 (1994)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 64.5¢	$203.93	$219.51	+$15.58	48% 785-858 (1643)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 44.3¢	$234.24	$150.45	-$83.8	29% 547-1318 (1865)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$81.93	$150.45	+$68.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$152.31	—	-$152.31
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 63¢	$211.25	$180.67	-$30.58	51% 843-825 (1668)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$113.85	$180.67	+$66.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$97.39	—	-$97.39
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 35.1¢	$220.28	$73.94	-$146.34	51% 850-830 (1680)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$156.3	—	-$156.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.5¢	$63.98	$73.94	+$9.96
AL almachCTR	Downavg 50.6¢	$137.42	—	-$137.42	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
machinelearned	Upavg 66¢	$169.55	$200	+$30.45	47% 1141-1280 (2421)
ohioism	Upavg 53.2¢	$77.1	$145	+$67.9	48% 2311-2552 (4863)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 42.4¢	$283.91	$126.65	+$37.05	52% 1584-1490 (3074)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$61.9	—	-$57.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$51.85	$126.65	+$94.23

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,884

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$246.39

Record

55%

477-387 (864)

Both legs:

Up$3,688.6950¢+$3.7K

Down$3,785.2850¢$-4.0K

0x50f7

Invested

$5,587.46

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$61.21

Record

53%

1518-1369 (2887)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,686.26

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$489.21

Record

59%

1116-760 (1876)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$884.17

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$266.32

Record

44%

799-1007 (1806)

blue.birds

Invested

$1,245.3

Value

$989.83

PnL

-$201.95

Record

52%

5118-4806 (9924)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$1,016.67

Value

$851.83

PnL

-$164.83

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

Both legs:

Down$466.249.3¢-$466.2

Up$550.4764.6¢+$301.37

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$774.4

Value

$849.96

PnL

+$78.06

Record

34%

778-1513 (2291)

Both legs:

Up$410.3848.3¢+$440

Down$361.5539.6¢-$361.95

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$773.65

Value

$758.34

PnL

-$15.31

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

Both legs:

Up$423.8955.9¢+$334.45

Down$349.7635.4¢-$349.76

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$682.92

Value

$782.82

PnL

+$99.9

Record

46%

843-1002 (1845)

Both legs:

Up$442.3756.5¢+$340.45

Down$240.5536.8¢-$240.55

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$517.23

Value

$530.68

PnL

+$13.46

Record

52%

431-391 (822)

Both legs:

Down$215.0540¢-$215.05

Up$302.1856.9¢+$228.5

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$504.7

Value

$560.77

PnL

+$56.07

Record

54%

4636-4000 (8636)

Both legs:

Up$299.9853.5¢+$260.8

Down$204.7250.3¢-$204.72

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$615.54

Value

$485.15

PnL

-$3.71

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$251.5951.9¢+$244.3

Down$236.3847.8¢-$248.01

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$454.84

Value

$300.5

PnL

+$48.28

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

Both legs:

Down$140.3343.9¢-$134.03

Up$134.3144.7¢+$182.3

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$300.4

Value

$233

PnL

-$67.4

Record

51%

850-821 (1671)

Both legs:

Down$141.7343¢-$141.73

Up$158.6768.1¢+$74.33

wzbbb

Invested

$188.45

Value

$268.42

PnL

+$106.4

Record

52%

952-862 (1814)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Down

Invested

$232.05

Value

—

PnL

-$232.05

Record

51%

844-810 (1654)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Down

Invested

$407.2

Value

—

PnL

-$397.6

Record

42%

834-1160 (1994)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$203.93

Value

$219.51

PnL

+$15.58

Record

48%

785-858 (1643)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$234.24

Value

$150.45

PnL

-$83.8

Record

29%

547-1318 (1865)

Both legs:

Up$81.9354.5¢+$68.51

Down$152.3144.3¢-$152.31

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$211.25

Value

$180.67

PnL

-$30.58

Record

51%

843-825 (1668)

Both legs:

Up$113.8563¢+$66.82

Down$97.3941.9¢-$97.39

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.28

Value

$73.94

PnL

-$146.34

Record

51%

850-830 (1680)

Both legs:

Down$156.335.1¢-$156.3

Up$63.9886.5¢+$9.96

almachCTR

Down

Invested

$137.42

Value

—

PnL

-$137.42

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

machinelearned

Invested

$169.55

Value

$200

PnL

+$30.45

Record

47%

1141-1280 (2421)

ohioism

Invested

$77.1

Value

$145

PnL

+$67.9

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$283.91

Value

$126.65

PnL

+$37.05

Record

52%

1584-1490 (3074)

Both legs:

Down$61.942.4¢-$57.18

Up$51.8540.9¢+$94.23

Smart Money Signal

23 of 39 top traders (59%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe1fc8fe1...e6e2a8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794732900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$246.39

0x50f7

Up — $5.6K

+$61.21

Bonereaper

Up — $2.1K

+$489.21

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.1K

+$266.32

blue.birds

Up — $989.83

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded