Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
42
Up 67%
3 arb excluded
$15.1K
$318.09
Smart Money Signal
28 of 42 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $7.5K | +$43.81 | 55% 477-387 (864) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 68.1¢ | $951.66 | $970.6 | +$18.93 | 59% 1116-760 (1876) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3683-3445 (7128) |
AL almach | Upavg 79¢ | $545.04 | $689.6 | +$144.56 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $511.24 | $478.23 | -$33.02 | 48% 1126-1234 (2360) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.5¢ | $275.98 | — | -$275.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.2¢ | $235.27 | $478.23 | +$242.96 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 55.3¢ | $482.78 | $602.97 | +$120.18 | 44% 799-1007 (1806) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $541.55 | $504.8 | -$0.54 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $250.93 | $504.8 | +$250.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $248.79 | — | -$251.06 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $328.68 | $332 | +$3.32 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.3¢ | $275.74 | $314.58 | +$38.84 | 52% 5118-4806 (9924) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.7¢ | $253.49 | $324.37 | +$70.88 | 46% 843-1002 (1845) |
BO bosona | Upavg 72.8¢ | $274.37 | $377.03 | +$102.65 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 62.9¢ | $572.89 | $303.45 | +$4.1 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 62.6¢ | $258.24 | $267.11 | +$8.86 | 55% 4545-3668 (8213) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 80¢ | $197.74 | $187.59 | -$10.15 | 53% 970-876 (1846) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 73.2¢ | $142.37 | $176 | +$33.63 | 48% 785-858 (1643) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 57.4¢ | $120.78 | $167 | +$46.22 | 34% 778-1513 (2291) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 73.9¢ | $108 | $124.21 | +$20.86 | 52% 952-862 (1814) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 88.1¢ | $101.75 | $114.34 | +$12.6 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $88.41 | — | -$88.41 | 51% 2054-1988 (4042) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 50.4¢ | $116.72 | — | -$116.72 | 54% 4636-4000 (8636) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Upavg 61.9¢ | $58.39 | $84.83 | +$26.44 | 46% 768-894 (1662) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $68.48 | $80 | +$11.52 | 42% 834-1160 (1994) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $51.95 | $67.67 | +$15.72 | 67% 3766-1879 (5645) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 81¢ | $86.48 | $106.77 | +$20.29 | 47% 1141-1280 (2421) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $74.58 | $63 | -$11.58 | 59% 1052-729 (1781) |
Invested
$8,743
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$43.81
Record
55%
477-387 (864)
Invested
$951.66
Value
$970.6
PnL
+$18.93
Record
59%
1116-760 (1876)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3683-3445 (7128)
Invested
$545.04
Value
$689.6
PnL
+$144.56
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Invested
$511.24
Value
$478.23
PnL
-$33.02
Record
48%
1126-1234 (2360)
Both legs:
Invested
$482.78
Value
$602.97
PnL
+$120.18
Record
44%
799-1007 (1806)
Invested
$541.55
Value
$504.8
PnL
-$0.54
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Both legs:
Invested
$328.68
Value
$332
PnL
+$3.32
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Invested
$275.74
Value
$314.58
PnL
+$38.84
Record
52%
5118-4806 (9924)
Invested
$253.49
Value
$324.37
PnL
+$70.88
Record
46%
843-1002 (1845)
Invested
$274.37
Value
$377.03
PnL
+$102.65
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$572.89
Value
$303.45
PnL
+$4.1
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Invested
$258.24
Value
$267.11
PnL
+$8.86
Record
55%
4545-3668 (8213)
Invested
$197.74
Value
$187.59
PnL
-$10.15
Record
53%
970-876 (1846)
Invested
$142.37
Value
$176
PnL
+$33.63
Record
48%
785-858 (1643)
Invested
$120.78
Value
$167
PnL
+$46.22
Record
34%
778-1513 (2291)
Invested
$108
Value
$124.21
PnL
+$20.86
Record
52%
952-862 (1814)
Invested
$101.75
Value
$114.34
PnL
+$12.6
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Invested
$88.41
Value
—
PnL
-$88.41
Record
51%
2054-1988 (4042)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$116.72
Value
—
PnL
-$116.72
Record
54%
4636-4000 (8636)
Invested
$58.39
Value
$84.83
PnL
+$26.44
Record
46%
768-894 (1662)
x-MoneyForWhiskas<$100Invested
$68.48
Value
$80
PnL
+$11.52
Record
42%
834-1160 (1994)
Invested
$51.95
Value
$67.67
PnL
+$15.72
Record
67%
3766-1879 (5645)
machinelearnedInvested
$86.48
Value
$106.77
PnL
+$20.29
Record
47%
1141-1280 (2421)
Invested
$74.58
Value
$63
PnL
-$11.58
Record
59%
1052-729 (1781)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $970.6
soswald1
Up — $950
almach
Up — $689.6
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $602.97
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $332
blue.birds
Up — $314.58
GoodFallen
Up — $324.37