Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 52%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

-$706.7

Smart Money Signal

18 of 35 top traders (51%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,576

Combined PnL+$146.57

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,324

Combined PnL-$853.27

Down — 49%Up — 51%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.0K	-$49.83	55% 477-387 (864)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$8.0K	+$3.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.7K	—	$-3.9K
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$170.55	59% 1116-760 (1876)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.1¢	$800.04	$1.7K	+$863.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$692.64	—	-$692.64
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 43.9¢	$957.65	$870.63	-$87.02	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$586.3	—	-$586.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.7¢	$371.35	$870.63	+$499.28
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$734.95	$730.05	-$4.9	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.4¢	$362.3	—	-$362.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$372.65	$730.05	+$357.41
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 47¢	$756.16	$697.47	-$58.69	44% 799-1007 (1806)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$383.15	—	-$383.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.5¢	$373.01	$697.47	+$324.46
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51¢	$574.85	$491.58	-$11.83	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$422.57	$422.43	-$0.14	46% 843-1002 (1845)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$259.45	$422.43	+$162.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$163.12	—	-$163.12
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$651.4	$325.25	-$16.57	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.7¢	$184.82	—	-$173.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.7¢	$181.11	$325.25	+$157.26
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$279.85	$308.75	+$28.89	52% 5118-4806 (9924)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.1¢	$148.62	$308.75	+$160.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$131.24	—	-$131.24
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$221.62	$145.56	-$76.06	52% 1584-1489 (3073)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$166.29	—	-$166.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 38¢	$55.33	$145.56	+$90.23
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 73.9¢	$250.74	$247.91	-$2.83	53% 970-876 (1846)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.9¢	$183.24	$247.91	+$64.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.6¢	$67.5	—	-$67.5
FairValueMachine	Downavg 59¢	$149.47	$200.51	+$53.34	54% 4636-4000 (8636)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 65¢	$197.87	—	-$197.87	47% 1141-1280 (2421)
LI Little-bigARB<$100	Downavg 57.7¢	$129.63	$138.04	+$8.41	51% 1073-1021 (2094)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.7¢	$79.63	$138.04	+$58.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$50	—	-$50
ohioism	Downavg 79.7¢	$126.03	$115	+$13.22	48% 2311-2552 (4863)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$109.91	$134.11	+$24.19	51% 843-825 (1668)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$80.93	$134.11	+$53.18
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.7¢	$28.98	—	-$28.98
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$96.14	$70.6	-$25.53	51% 844-810 (1654)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$61.69	—	-$61.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$34.45	$70.6	+$36.16
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 66.7¢	$709.47	—	-$300.22	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$96.09	$91.09	-$5	59% 1052-729 (1781)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$52.82	$91.09	+$38.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.4¢	$43.27	—	-$43.27
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 59¢	$72.15	$76.63	+$4.47	59% 1037-732 (1769)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$45.21	$76.63	+$31.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$26.94	—	-$26.94
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$87.13	$63.29	-$8.52	59% 1036-720 (1756)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.8¢	$30.51	—	-$30.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.5¢	$43.38	$63.29	+$21.95
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 54.1¢	$69.9	$66.78	+$14.78	50% 830-816 (1646)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$62.1	$84.7	+$22.6	51% 850-830 (1680)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 73.1¢	$93.71	$100.71	+$10.67	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 90.6¢	$83.03	$69.33	-$13.7	67% 3766-1879 (5645)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,710

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$49.83

Record

55%

477-387 (864)

Both legs:

Down$3,983.8450¢+$3.9K

Up$3,746.6450¢$-3.9K

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,492.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$170.55

Record

59%

1116-760 (1876)

Both legs:

Down$800.0448.1¢+$863.19

Up$692.6450.6¢-$692.64

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$957.65

Value

$870.63

PnL

-$87.02

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

Both legs:

Up$586.343.9¢-$586.3

Down$371.3542.7¢+$499.28

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$734.95

Value

$730.05

PnL

-$4.9

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

Both legs:

Up$362.342.4¢-$362.3

Down$372.6551¢+$357.41

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$756.16

Value

$697.47

PnL

-$58.69

Record

44%

799-1007 (1806)

Both legs:

Up$383.1547¢-$383.15

Down$373.0153.5¢+$324.46

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$574.85

Value

$491.58

PnL

-$11.83

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$422.57

Value

$422.43

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

843-1002 (1845)

Both legs:

Down$259.4561.4¢+$162.98

Up$163.1243¢-$163.12

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$651.4

Value

$325.25

PnL

-$16.57

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

Both legs:

Up$184.8242.7¢-$173.84

Down$181.1155.7¢+$157.26

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.85

Value

$308.75

PnL

+$28.89

Record

52%

5118-4806 (9924)

Both legs:

Down$148.6248.1¢+$160.13

Up$131.2460.8¢-$131.24

almachARB<$100

Invested

$221.62

Value

$145.56

PnL

-$76.06

Record

52%

1584-1489 (3073)

Both legs:

Up$166.2948.5¢-$166.29

Down$55.3338¢+$90.23

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$250.74

Value

$247.91

PnL

-$2.83

Record

53%

970-876 (1846)

Both legs:

Down$183.2473.9¢+$64.67

Up$67.538.6¢-$67.5

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$149.47

Value

$200.51

PnL

+$53.34

Record

54%

4636-4000 (8636)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$197.87

Value

—

PnL

-$197.87

Record

47%

1141-1280 (2421)

Little-bigARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.63

Value

$138.04

PnL

+$8.41

Record

51%

1073-1021 (2094)

Both legs:

Down$79.6357.7¢+$58.41

Up$5050¢-$50

ohioism

Down

Invested

$126.03

Value

$115

PnL

+$13.22

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$109.91

Value

$134.11

PnL

+$24.19

Record

51%

843-825 (1668)

Both legs:

Down$80.9360.3¢+$53.18

Up$28.9830.7¢-$28.98

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$96.14

Value

$70.6

PnL

-$25.53

Record

51%

844-810 (1654)

Both legs:

Up$61.6949¢-$61.69

Down$34.4548.8¢+$36.16

bosonaCTR

Invested

$709.47

Value

—

PnL

-$300.22

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.09

Value

$91.09

PnL

-$5

Record

59%

1052-729 (1781)

Both legs:

Invested

$72.15

Value

$76.63

PnL

+$4.47

Record

59%

1037-732 (1769)

Both legs:

Down$45.2159¢+$31.42

Up$26.9438.4¢-$26.94

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$87.13

Value

$63.29

PnL

-$8.52

Record

59%

1036-720 (1756)

Both legs:

Up$30.5141.8¢-$30.47

Down$43.3868.5¢+$21.95

OhioAI<$100

Down

Invested

$69.9

Value

$66.78

PnL

+$14.78

Record

50%

830-816 (1646)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Down

Invested

$62.1

Value

$84.7

PnL

+$22.6

Record

51%

850-830 (1680)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$93.71

Value

$100.71

PnL

+$10.67

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$83.03

Value

$69.33

PnL

-$13.7

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 35 top traders (51%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xea2e21b5...b0a4a4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794732300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$58.69

ByteBadger92

Down — $491.58

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

almach

Arbitrage — excluded