Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 73%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$178.6

Smart Money Signal

35 of 49 top traders (71%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%39 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up35 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,489

Combined PnL+$447.12

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares654

Combined PnL-$268.53

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$1.43	53% 1518-1369 (2887)
BO bosona	Upavg 75.5¢	$957.71	$1.1K	+$151.99	51% 4829-4609 (9438)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3683-3445 (7128)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 77.8¢	$812.06	$786.01	-$26.06	48% 1126-1234 (2360)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.8¢	$611.5	$786.01	+$174.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.4¢	$200.56	—	-$200.56
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$680.73	$706.65	+$25.92	59% 1116-760 (1876)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.4¢	$468.96	$706.65	+$237.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$211.77	—	-$211.77
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 73.7¢	$963.73	$573.21	+$4.45	55% 477-387 (864)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.7¢	$422.28	$573.21	+$228.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.1¢	$221.13	—	-$223.61
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$558.79	$500.96	+$2.52	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$259.82	$500.96	+$250.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$240.57	—	-$248.22
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$467.4	$469.71	+$2.31	44% 799-1007 (1806)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.3¢	$306.54	$469.71	+$163.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$160.86	—	-$160.86
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.1¢	$316.76	$352.17	+$58.8	46% 843-1002 (1845)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 62¢	$338.22	$285.14	-$53.08	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$176.75	$285.14	+$108.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$161.46	—	-$161.46
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$255.14	$279.37	+$24.23	55% 4545-3668 (8213)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$158.17	$279.37	+$121.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$96.97	—	-$96.97
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 71.1¢	$289.89	$294.21	+$4.32	34% 778-1513 (2291)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.1¢	$209.12	$294.21	+$85.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$80.77	—	-$80.77
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 80.5¢	$237.05	$246.61	+$12.8	52% 952-862 (1814)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$213.13	$247.55	+$34.42	54% 4636-4000 (8636)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.4¢	$142.08	$247.55	+$105.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.7¢	$71.06	—	-$71.06
machinelearned	Upavg 85¢	$255.69	$300	+$44.31	47% 1141-1280 (2421)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$121.91	$155.92	+$34.01	53% 970-876 (1846)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$104.95	$155.92	+$50.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.5¢	$16.96	—	-$16.96
BL blue.birds	Upavg 63.1¢	$126.1	$171.64	+$45.55	52% 5118-4806 (9924)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$173.25	$175	+$1.75	98% 4234-88 (4322)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 61.4¢	$70.8	$105.07	+$34.27	51% 843-825 (1668)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$69.21	$69.36	+$0.15	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$42.56	$69.36	+$26.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.2¢	$26.65	—	-$26.65
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$80.39	$79.28	-$1.1	48% 785-858 (1643)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR	Downavg 48.4¢	$185.39	—	-$164.6	42% 834-1160 (1994)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$57.1	$65	+$7.9	48% 2400-2586 (4986)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$43.4	$63.72	+$20.32	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
AL Alpharo28<$100	Upavg 57¢	$64.3	$70	+$5.7	57% 393-300 (693)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,426.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.43

Record

53%

1518-1369 (2887)

bosona

Invested

$957.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$151.99

Record

51%

4829-4609 (9438)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$47550¢-$475

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$812.06

Value

$786.01

PnL

-$26.06

Record

48%

1126-1234 (2360)

Both legs:

Up$611.577.8¢+$174.5

Down$200.5617.4¢-$200.56

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$680.73

Value

$706.65

PnL

+$25.92

Record

59%

1116-760 (1876)

Both legs:

Up$468.9666.4¢+$237.69

Down$211.7732.3¢-$211.77

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$963.73

Value

$573.21

PnL

+$4.45

Record

55%

477-387 (864)

Both legs:

Up$422.2873.7¢+$228.06

Down$221.1333.1¢-$223.61

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$558.79

Value

$500.96

PnL

+$2.52

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$259.8251.9¢+$250.74

Down$240.5748.3¢-$248.22

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$467.4

Value

$469.71

PnL

+$2.31

Record

44%

799-1007 (1806)

Both legs:

Up$306.5465.3¢+$163.18

Down$160.8632¢-$160.86

GoodFallen

Invested

$316.76

Value

$352.17

PnL

+$58.8

Record

46%

843-1002 (1845)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$338.22

Value

$285.14

PnL

-$53.08

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

Both legs:

Up$176.7562¢+$108.39

Down$161.4641.9¢-$161.46

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$255.14

Value

$279.37

PnL

+$24.23

Record

55%

4545-3668 (8213)

Both legs:

Up$158.1756.6¢+$121.2

Down$96.9733.8¢-$96.97

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$289.89

Value

$294.21

PnL

+$4.32

Record

34%

778-1513 (2291)

Both legs:

Up$209.1271.1¢+$85.1

Down$80.7737¢-$80.77

wzbbb

Invested

$237.05

Value

$246.61

PnL

+$12.8

Record

52%

952-862 (1814)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$213.13

Value

$247.55

PnL

+$34.42

Record

54%

4636-4000 (8636)

Both legs:

Up$142.0857.4¢+$105.47

Down$71.0638.7¢-$71.06

machinelearned

Invested

$255.69

Value

$300

PnL

+$44.31

Record

47%

1141-1280 (2421)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$121.91

Value

$155.92

PnL

+$34.01

Record

53%

970-876 (1846)

Both legs:

Up$104.9567.3¢+$50.97

Down$16.969.5¢-$16.96

blue.birds

Invested

$126.1

Value

$171.64

PnL

+$45.55

Record

52%

5118-4806 (9924)

hoodquant

Invested

$173.25

Value

$175

PnL

+$1.75

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$70.8

Value

$105.07

PnL

+$34.27

Record

51%

843-825 (1668)

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$69.21

Value

$69.36

PnL

+$0.15

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

Both legs:

Up$42.5661.4¢+$26.8

Down$26.6524.2¢-$26.65

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100

Invested

$80.39

Value

$79.28

PnL

-$1.1

Record

48%

785-858 (1643)

x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR

Down

Invested

$185.39

Value

—

PnL

-$164.6

Record

42%

834-1160 (1994)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$57.1

Value

$65

PnL

+$7.9

Record

48%

2400-2586 (4986)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$43.4

Value

$63.72

PnL

+$20.32

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

Alpharo28<$100

Invested

$64.3

Value

$70

PnL

+$5.7

Record

57%

393-300 (693)

Smart Money Signal

35 of 49 top traders (71%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%39 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa8fe789b...7c4a22

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794732000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $1.4K

+$1.43

bosona

Up — $1.1K

+$151.99

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.31

GoodFallen

Up — $352.17

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded