Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
48
Down 58%
3 arb excluded
$6.4K
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
28 of 48 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 56.2¢ | $688.5 | $1.2K | +$536.88 | 51% 2039-1965 (4004) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
AL almach | Downavg 93.5¢ | $732.5 | $748.77 | +$16.27 | 51% 1570-1480 (3050) |
BO bosona | Downavg 80.9¢ | $522.7 | $621.79 | +$99.09 | 51% 4812-4602 (9414) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 79.9¢ | $612.31 | $539.8 | -$72.51 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 80.5¢ | $540.99 | $506.29 | -$34.7 | 55% 4532-3662 (8194) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $519.88 | — | -$499.78 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.3¢ | $458.12 | $490.44 | +$32.32 | 52% 5108-4798 (9906) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.5¢ | $392.71 | $361.46 | -$31.25 | 44% 793-999 (1792) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 94.3¢ | $351.01 | $314.83 | -$12.43 | 52% 955-872 (1827) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 96.5¢ | $269.43 | $266.77 | -$2.66 | 67% 3730-1865 (5595) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 28¢ | $690.63 | — | -$522.13 | 59% 1104-757 (1861) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 93.1¢ | $365.84 | $265.53 | +$1.04 | 51% 1567-1482 (3049) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 44.9¢ | $338.99 | — | -$338.99 | 48% 1113-1229 (2342) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 79.2¢ | $187.14 | $144.16 | -$31.88 | 46% 839-992 (1831) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $90.02 | $88.46 | -$1.56 | 50% 901-901 (1802) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $44.52 | $88.46 | +$43.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.5¢ | $45.5 | — | -$45.5 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $87.45 | $91.29 | +$3.83 | 51% 839-817 (1656) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $93.64 | $89.25 | -$4.39 | 51% 843-826 (1669) |
LI Little-bigARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $90.69 | $48.95 | -$41.74 | 51% 1062-1015 (2077) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $62.79 | — | -$62.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $27.9 | $48.95 | +$21.05 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100 | Downavg 66.6¢ | $80.68 | $81.5 | +$0.82 | 51% 838-806 (1644) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 47.3¢ | $138.4 | $57.77 | -$80.63 | 54% 4626-3998 (8624) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.6¢ | $48.87 | $57.77 | +$8.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.3¢ | $89.53 | — | -$89.53 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $59.37 | $63 | +$3.63 | 46% 763-886 (1649) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 96.5¢ | $121.82 | $57.5 | -$28.52 | 34% 768-1509 (2277) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $74.16 | $47.67 | -$10.87 | 59% 1044-723 (1767) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $54.42 | $48 | -$1.01 | 59% 1024-718 (1742) |
Invested
$688.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$536.88
Record
51%
2039-1965 (4004)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Invested
$732.5
Value
$748.77
PnL
+$16.27
Record
51%
1570-1480 (3050)
Invested
$522.7
Value
$621.79
PnL
+$99.09
Record
51%
4812-4602 (9414)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$612.31
Value
$539.8
PnL
-$72.51
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Invested
$540.99
Value
$506.29
PnL
-$34.7
Record
55%
4532-3662 (8194)
Invested
$519.88
Value
—
PnL
-$499.78
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$458.12
Value
$490.44
PnL
+$32.32
Record
52%
5108-4798 (9906)
Invested
$392.71
Value
$361.46
PnL
-$31.25
Record
44%
793-999 (1792)
Invested
$351.01
Value
$314.83
PnL
-$12.43
Record
52%
955-872 (1827)
Invested
$269.43
Value
$266.77
PnL
-$2.66
Record
67%
3730-1865 (5595)
Invested
$690.63
Value
—
PnL
-$522.13
Record
59%
1104-757 (1861)
Invested
$365.84
Value
$265.53
PnL
+$1.04
Record
51%
1567-1482 (3049)
Invested
$338.99
Value
—
PnL
-$338.99
Record
48%
1113-1229 (2342)
Invested
$187.14
Value
$144.16
PnL
-$31.88
Record
46%
839-992 (1831)
Invested
$90.02
Value
$88.46
PnL
-$1.56
Record
50%
901-901 (1802)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.45
Value
$91.29
PnL
+$3.83
Record
51%
839-817 (1656)
Invested
$93.64
Value
$89.25
PnL
-$4.39
Record
51%
843-826 (1669)
Invested
$90.69
Value
$48.95
PnL
-$41.74
Record
51%
1062-1015 (2077)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.68
Value
$81.5
PnL
+$0.82
Record
51%
838-806 (1644)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$138.4
Value
$57.77
PnL
-$80.63
Record
54%
4626-3998 (8624)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.37
Value
$63
PnL
+$3.63
Record
46%
763-886 (1649)
Invested
$121.82
Value
$57.5
PnL
-$28.52
Record
34%
768-1509 (2277)
Invested
$74.16
Value
$47.67
PnL
-$10.87
Record
59%
1044-723 (1767)
Invested
$54.42
Value
$48
PnL
-$1.01
Record
59%
1024-718 (1742)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.2K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
almach
Down — $748.77
bosona
Down — $621.79
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $539.8
stepahead
Down — $506.29
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $490.44
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $361.46
EZTRADENL2
Down — $314.83