Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$302.68

Smart Money Signal

41 of 50 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up41 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares11,506

Combined PnL+$571.41

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,433

Combined PnL-$268.72

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$1.25	52% 1501-1359 (2860)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 93.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$73.83	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
BO bosona	Upavg 82.1¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$223.68	51% 4812-4602 (9414)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3670-3435 (7105)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$806.75	$814.9	+$8.15	99% 904-7 (911)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 74.4¢	$676.89	$753.89	+$77	48% 1113-1229 (2342)
AL almach	Upavg 96.1¢	$1.4K	$688.2	+$54.38	51% 1570-1480 (3050)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 89.6¢	$479.1	$507.75	+$28.65	52% 955-872 (1827)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.1¢	$560.54	$492.86	+$1.77	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66.5¢	$522.8	$491.79	-$16.94	59% 1104-757 (1861)
MO mo-money	Upavg 93.5¢	$543.35	$500	+$33.03	51% 1567-1482 (3049)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$357.05	$243.67	-$113.39	51% 2039-1965 (4004)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$241.88	—	-$241.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$115.18	$243.67	+$128.49
ST stepahead	Upavg 68.6¢	$341.1	$336.56	-$4.54	55% 4532-3662 (8194)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 67.2¢	$333.29	$280.05	-$53.24	44% 793-999 (1792)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 63.7¢	$215.28	$241.48	+$28.38	46% 839-992 (1831)
ohioism	Upavg 76.5¢	$176.24	$230.25	+$54.01	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 90.2¢	$185.5	$193.22	+$7.96	67% 3730-1865 (5595)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 53.7¢	$85.86	$160	+$74.14	42% 825-1157 (1982)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 73.9¢	$184.28	$153.91	-$30.37	51% 2389-2256 (4645)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 91.2¢	$134.34	$115.65	-$18.69	34% 768-1509 (2277)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$76.54	$97.93	+$21.39	59% 1044-723 (1767)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 95.3¢	$133.68	$94.5	-$39.18	51% 838-806 (1644)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$87.19	$94.5	+$7.31	48% 781-851 (1632)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$83.29	$92.46	+$9.17	59% 1030-726 (1756)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 73¢	$75.39	$90.09	+$16.75	54% 4626-3998 (8624)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,248.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

1501-1359 (2860)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,138.18

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$73.83

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

bosona

Invested

$1,029

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$223.68

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3670-3435 (7105)

THG.

Invested

$806.75

Value

$814.9

PnL

+$8.15

Record

99%

904-7 (911)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$676.89

Value

$753.89

PnL

+$77

Record

48%

1113-1229 (2342)

almach

Invested

$1,396.45

Value

$688.2

PnL

+$54.38

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$479.1

Value

$507.75

PnL

+$28.65

Record

52%

955-872 (1827)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$560.54

Value

$492.86

PnL

+$1.77

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Bonereaper

Invested

$522.8

Value

$491.79

PnL

-$16.94

Record

59%

1104-757 (1861)

mo-money

Invested

$543.35

Value

$500

PnL

+$33.03

Record

51%

1567-1482 (3049)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$357.05

Value

$243.67

PnL

-$113.39

Record

51%

2039-1965 (4004)

Both legs:

Down$241.8839¢-$241.88

Up$115.1847.3¢+$128.49

stepahead

Invested

$341.1

Value

$336.56

PnL

-$4.54

Record

55%

4532-3662 (8194)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$333.29

Value

$280.05

PnL

-$53.24

Record

44%

793-999 (1792)

GoodFallen

Invested

$215.28

Value

$241.48

PnL

+$28.38

Record

46%

839-992 (1831)

ohioism

Invested

$176.24

Value

$230.25

PnL

+$54.01

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

asdaefef

Invested

$185.5

Value

$193.22

PnL

+$7.96

Record

67%

3730-1865 (5595)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$85.86

Value

$160

PnL

+$74.14

Record

42%

825-1157 (1982)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$184.28

Value

$153.91

PnL

-$30.37

Record

51%

2389-2256 (4645)

ply-pm0

Invested

$134.34

Value

$115.65

PnL

-$18.69

Record

34%

768-1509 (2277)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$76.54

Value

$97.93

PnL

+$21.39

Record

59%

1044-723 (1767)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$133.68

Value

$94.5

PnL

-$39.18

Record

51%

838-806 (1644)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100

Invested

$87.19

Value

$94.5

PnL

+$7.31

Record

48%

781-851 (1632)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$83.29

Value

$92.46

PnL

+$9.17

Record

59%

1030-726 (1756)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$75.39

Value

$90.09

PnL

+$16.75

Record

54%

4626-3998 (8624)

Smart Money Signal

41 of 50 top traders (82%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf69a71b8...74a586

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794731400

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $1.2K

+$1.25

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.2K

+$73.83

bosona

Up — $1.3K

+$223.68

soswald1

Up — $950

+$0

THG.

Up — $814.9

+$8.15

CrouchPredictions

Up — $753.89

+$77

almach

Up — $688.2

+$54.38

EZTRADENL2

Up — $507.75

+$28.65

ByteBadger92

Up — $492.86

+$1.77

Bonereaper

Up — $491.79

-$16.94

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