Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$250.74

Smart Money Signal

42 of 50 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up42 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares10,364

Combined PnL+$585.56

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares585

Combined PnL-$334.82

Up — 84%Down — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 97.1¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$46.32	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3670-3435 (7105)
BO bosona	Upavg 77.2¢	$680.55	$881.79	+$201.24	51% 4812-4602 (9414)
MO mo-money	Upavg 91.6¢	$606.44	$662.07	+$55.63	51% 1567-1482 (3049)
AL almach	Upavg 93¢	$604.55	$649.41	+$44.86	51% 1570-1480 (3050)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 77.9¢	$606.53	$532.87	-$73.66	59% 1104-757 (1861)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$522.35	$497.88	-$1.6	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$251.71	$497.88	+$248.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81.6¢	$474.7	$470.64	-$4.06	52% 5108-4798 (9906)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68.8¢	$358.68	$480.25	+$123.14	48% 1113-1229 (2342)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$447.04	$451.56	+$4.52	99% 904-7 (911)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 86.7¢	$398.23	$426.9	+$28.68	52% 955-872 (1827)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 66.4¢	$399.56	$386.59	-$12.98	44% 793-999 (1792)
ST stepahead	Upavg 57.5¢	$345.5	$370.67	+$25.17	55% 4532-3662 (8194)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 61.5¢	$381.89	$368.19	-$13.69	51% 2389-2256 (4645)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$325.22	$328.51	+$3.29	98% 4191-88 (4279)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 61.7¢	$238.26	$307.72	+$69.46	46% 839-992 (1831)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 86.2¢	$183.84	$213.24	+$29.4	48% 2388-2566 (4954)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 91.9¢	$132.86	$140.76	+$7.9	67% 3730-1865 (5595)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 93.5¢	$113.4	$121.34	+$7.94	52% 945-857 (1802)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 94.9¢	$109.54	$115.38	+$5.84	39% 1613-2504 (4117)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 73.6¢	$148.77	$112.83	-$35.95	34% 768-1509 (2277)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR	Downavg 52.4¢	$192.11	—	-$192.11	48% 781-851 (1632)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 52¢	$94.56	$130.3	+$35.74	51% 839-817 (1656)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$67.76	$130.3	+$62.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$26.8	—	-$26.8
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100	Upavg 66.4¢	$67.02	$81.5	+$14.48	51% 843-826 (1669)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 95.2¢	$103.94	$76.51	+$7.03	63% 4381-2627 (7008)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,547.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$46.32

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3670-3435 (7105)

bosona

Invested

$680.55

Value

$881.79

PnL

+$201.24

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

mo-money

Invested

$606.44

Value

$662.07

PnL

+$55.63

Record

51%

1567-1482 (3049)

almach

Invested

$604.55

Value

$649.41

PnL

+$44.86

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

Bonereaper

Invested

$606.53

Value

$532.87

PnL

-$73.66

Record

59%

1104-757 (1861)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$522.35

Value

$497.88

PnL

-$1.6

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Both legs:

Up$251.7150.6¢+$248.4

Down$25050¢-$250

blue.birds

Invested

$474.7

Value

$470.64

PnL

-$4.06

Record

52%

5108-4798 (9906)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$358.68

Value

$480.25

PnL

+$123.14

Record

48%

1113-1229 (2342)

THG.

Invested

$447.04

Value

$451.56

PnL

+$4.52

Record

99%

904-7 (911)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$398.23

Value

$426.9

PnL

+$28.68

Record

52%

955-872 (1827)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$399.56

Value

$386.59

PnL

-$12.98

Record

44%

793-999 (1792)

stepahead

Invested

$345.5

Value

$370.67

PnL

+$25.17

Record

55%

4532-3662 (8194)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$381.89

Value

$368.19

PnL

-$13.69

Record

51%

2389-2256 (4645)

hoodquant

Invested

$325.22

Value

$328.51

PnL

+$3.29

Record

98%

4191-88 (4279)

GoodFallen

Invested

$238.26

Value

$307.72

PnL

+$69.46

Record

46%

839-992 (1831)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$183.84

Value

$213.24

PnL

+$29.4

Record

48%

2388-2566 (4954)

asdaefef

Invested

$132.86

Value

$140.76

PnL

+$7.9

Record

67%

3730-1865 (5595)

wzbbb

Invested

$113.4

Value

$121.34

PnL

+$7.94

Record

52%

945-857 (1802)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$109.54

Value

$115.38

PnL

+$5.84

Record

39%

1613-2504 (4117)

ply-pm0

Invested

$148.77

Value

$112.83

PnL

-$35.95

Record

34%

768-1509 (2277)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR

Down

Invested

$192.11

Value

—

PnL

-$192.11

Record

48%

781-851 (1632)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$94.56

Value

$130.3

PnL

+$35.74

Record

51%

839-817 (1656)

Both legs:

Up$67.7652¢+$62.54

Down$26.845.5¢-$26.8

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100

Invested

$67.02

Value

$81.5

PnL

+$14.48

Record

51%

843-826 (1669)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$103.94

Value

$76.51

PnL

+$7.03

Record

63%

4381-2627 (7008)

Smart Money Signal

42 of 50 top traders (84%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1329b18e...8c3436

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794731100

Traders in this Market

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.6K

+$46.32

soswald1

Up — $950

+$0

bosona

Up — $881.79

+$201.24

mo-money

Up — $662.07

+$55.63

almach

Up — $649.41

+$44.86

Bonereaper

Up — $532.87

-$73.66

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.6

blue.birds

Up — $470.64

-$4.06

CrouchPredictions

Up — $480.25

+$123.14

THG.

Up — $451.56

+$4.52

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