Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 70%
6 arb excluded
$31.9K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 58 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $7.8K | $7.9K | +$7.86 | 52% 1501-1359 (2860) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 96.6¢ | $6.2K | $6.5K | +$209.49 | 63% 80-47 (127) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Upavg 78.3¢ | $3.0K | $3.9K | +$843.4 | 8% 42-459 (501) |
 mihaXd | Upavg 76.9¢ | $969.57 | $1.3K | +$291.38 | 55% 141-116 (257) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 96.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$281.28 | 48% 1113-1229 (2342) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
AL almach | Upavg 99.2¢ | $1.5K | $861.83 | -$634.25 | 51% 1570-1480 (3050) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 76.3¢ | $535.07 | $701.04 | +$165.97 | 34% 220-418 (638) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 99¢ | $666.27 | $673 | +$6.73 | 42% 1920-2608 (4528) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Upavg 73.8¢ | $494.55 | $669.94 | +$175.39 | 30% 133-309 (442) |
 Bossgirl | Upavg 71.3¢ | $474.94 | $665.96 | +$191.01 | 57% 86-64 (150) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 74.6¢ | $584.63 | $587.81 | +$3.18 | 44% 793-999 (1792) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $559.31 | $526.75 | -$32.57 | 52% 5108-4798 (9906) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77¢ | $405.79 | $526.75 | +$120.96 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.8¢ | $153.52 | — | -$153.52 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 87.7¢ | $581.26 | $535.29 | -$45.96 | 52% 425-387 (812) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 87.7¢ | $469.26 | $535.29 | +$66.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.4¢ | $112 | — | -$112 | |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 25.3¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 51% 1567-1482 (3049) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49¢ | $543.84 | — | -$489.02 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Upavg 68.9¢ | $302.24 | $438.54 | +$136.3 | 61% 116-74 (190) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 33.4¢ | $472.21 | $298.36 | -$173.86 | 59% 1104-757 (1861) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.6¢ | $216.57 | $298.36 | +$81.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.4¢ | $255.64 | — | -$255.64 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 96.7¢ | $383.63 | $363.39 | -$20.24 | 51% 843-826 (1669) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 97.3¢ | $350.07 | $317.49 | -$32.59 | 51% 845-816 (1661) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 84.3¢ | $454.81 | $313.51 | -$18.29 | 52% 955-872 (1827) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 95.7¢ | $467.77 | $307.09 | -$158.58 | 34% 768-1509 (2277) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99.8¢ | $303.31 | $304.02 | +$0.71 | 50% 1672-1702 (3374) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 72.7¢ | $236.1 | $305 | +$68.9 | 48% 2398-2644 (5042) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 29.4¢ | $1.2K | — | -$941.67 | 51% 4812-4602 (9414) |
Invested
$7,849.81
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$7.86
Record
52%
1501-1359 (2860)
Invested
$6,249.72
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$209.49
Record
63%
80-47 (127)
Invested
$3,048.98
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$843.4
Record
8%
42-459 (501)
mihaXdInvested
$969.57
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$291.38
Record
55%
141-116 (257)
Invested
$1,374.56
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$281.28
Record
48%
1113-1229 (2342)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Invested
$1,496.08
Value
$861.83
PnL
-$634.25
Record
51%
1570-1480 (3050)
Invested
$535.07
Value
$701.04
PnL
+$165.97
Record
34%
220-418 (638)
Invested
$666.27
Value
$673
PnL
+$6.73
Record
42%
1920-2608 (4528)
Invested
$494.55
Value
$669.94
PnL
+$175.39
Record
30%
133-309 (442)
BossgirlInvested
$474.94
Value
$665.96
PnL
+$191.01
Record
57%
86-64 (150)
Invested
$584.63
Value
$587.81
PnL
+$3.18
Record
44%
793-999 (1792)
Invested
$559.31
Value
$526.75
PnL
-$32.57
Record
52%
5108-4798 (9906)
Both legs:
Invested
$581.26
Value
$535.29
PnL
-$45.96
Record
52%
425-387 (812)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,116.14
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
51%
1567-1482 (3049)
Invested
$543.84
Value
—
PnL
-$489.02
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$302.24
Value
$438.54
PnL
+$136.3
Record
61%
116-74 (190)
Invested
$472.21
Value
$298.36
PnL
-$173.86
Record
59%
1104-757 (1861)
Both legs:
Invested
$383.63
Value
$363.39
PnL
-$20.24
Record
51%
843-826 (1669)
Invested
$350.07
Value
$317.49
PnL
-$32.59
Record
51%
845-816 (1661)
Invested
$454.81
Value
$313.51
PnL
-$18.29
Record
52%
955-872 (1827)
Invested
$467.77
Value
$307.09
PnL
-$158.58
Record
34%
768-1509 (2277)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$303.31
Value
$304.02
PnL
+$0.71
Record
50%
1672-1702 (3374)
Invested
$236.1
Value
$305
PnL
+$68.9
Record
48%
2398-2644 (5042)
Invested
$1,186.82
Value
—
PnL
-$941.67
Record
51%
4812-4602 (9414)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $7.9K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Up — $6.5K
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Up — $3.9K
mihaXd
Up — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
soswald1
Up — $950
almach
Up — $861.83
ply-pm4
Up — $701.04
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $673
0xdc27...afdd9a
Up — $669.94