Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
65
Down 60%
5 arb excluded
$25.4K
$-13.3K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 65 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-5.0K | 42% 320-433 (753) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Downavg 72.2¢ | $3.1K | $4.3K | +$1.2K | 8% 42-459 (501) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-4.0K | 45% 606-752 (1358) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 78.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.6K | +$431.96 | 63% 80-47 (127) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$83.69 | 52% 5108-4798 (9906) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.7¢ | $633.19 | — | -$633.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70¢ | $1.3K | $1.8K | +$549.5 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$144.52 | 34% 768-1509 (2277) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 75.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$156.1 | 52% 425-387 (812) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$3.09 | 44% 793-999 (1792) |
 mihaXd | Downavg 74.4¢ | $814.42 | $1.1K | +$280.93 | 55% 141-116 (257) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 77.7¢ | $1.1K | $916.2 | -$140.28 | 59% 1104-757 (1861) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.3¢ | $835.63 | $846.79 | +$11.16 | 46% 839-992 (1831) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 75.1¢ | $601.59 | $800.63 | +$199.04 | 28% 304-782 (1086) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 83¢ | $839.69 | $795.28 | -$44.41 | 52% 955-872 (1827) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 93.7¢ | $955.6 | $788.42 | -$167.18 | 51% 839-817 (1656) |
PL ply-pm4 | Downavg 74.9¢ | $555.64 | $741.54 | +$185.9 | 34% 220-418 (638) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 72.1¢ | $515.36 | $714.98 | +$199.61 | 57% 86-64 (150) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 56.3¢ | $852.52 | $657.06 | +$99.1 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.3¢ | $218.81 | — | -$169.56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.3¢ | $369.87 | $657.06 | +$268.65 | |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 78.2¢ | $706.58 | $576.57 | -$130.01 | 48% 1113-1229 (2342) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 73.3¢ | $413.3 | $563.81 | +$150.51 | 30% 133-309 (442) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Downavg 75¢ | $369.54 | $492.88 | +$123.34 | 61% 116-74 (190) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 71.3¢ | $422.65 | $471.36 | +$53.15 | 52% 945-857 (1802) |
 NIULAI4ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $967.65 | $250 | -$717.65 | 29% 540-1311 (1851) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.1¢ | $735.15 | — | -$735.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 93¢ | $232.5 | $250 | +$17.5 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 47.1¢ | $571.95 | — | -$472.27 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 79¢ | $465.28 | $391.1 | -$74.18 | 55% 4532-3662 (8194) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
42%
320-433 (753)
Invested
$3,074.03
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
8%
42-459 (501)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
45%
606-752 (1358)
Invested
$2,148.04
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$431.96
Record
63%
80-47 (127)
Invested
$1,912.67
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$83.69
Record
52%
5108-4798 (9906)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,688.3
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$144.52
Record
34%
768-1509 (2277)
Invested
$1,395.72
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$156.1
Record
52%
425-387 (812)
Invested
$1,160.09
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$3.09
Record
44%
793-999 (1792)
mihaXdInvested
$814.42
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$280.93
Record
55%
141-116 (257)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Invested
$1,064.26
Value
$916.2
PnL
-$140.28
Record
59%
1104-757 (1861)
Invested
$835.63
Value
$846.79
PnL
+$11.16
Record
46%
839-992 (1831)
AtomforgeInvested
$601.59
Value
$800.63
PnL
+$199.04
Record
28%
304-782 (1086)
Invested
$839.69
Value
$795.28
PnL
-$44.41
Record
52%
955-872 (1827)
Invested
$955.6
Value
$788.42
PnL
-$167.18
Record
51%
839-817 (1656)
Invested
$555.64
Value
$741.54
PnL
+$185.9
Record
34%
220-418 (638)
BossgirlInvested
$515.36
Value
$714.98
PnL
+$199.61
Record
57%
86-64 (150)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$852.52
Value
$657.06
PnL
+$99.1
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Both legs:
Invested
$706.58
Value
$576.57
PnL
-$130.01
Record
48%
1113-1229 (2342)
Invested
$413.3
Value
$563.81
PnL
+$150.51
Record
30%
133-309 (442)
Invested
$369.54
Value
$492.88
PnL
+$123.34
Record
61%
116-74 (190)
Invested
$422.65
Value
$471.36
PnL
+$53.15
Record
52%
945-857 (1802)
NIULAI4ARB<$100Invested
$967.65
Value
$250
PnL
-$717.65
Record
29%
540-1311 (1851)
Both legs:
Invested
$571.95
Value
—
PnL
-$472.27
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$465.28
Value
$391.1
PnL
-$74.18
Record
55%
4532-3662 (8194)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Down — $4.3K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $2.6K
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $1.5K
gansinimen
Down — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.2K
mihaXd
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0