Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 58%
2 arb excluded
$25.8K
$-10.1K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 60 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.2K | -$59.95 | 55% 467-383 (850) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $3.6K | $7.2K | +$3.7K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $3.6K | — | $-3.7K | |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Downavg 54.9¢ | $2.5K | $4.5K | +$2.0K | 8% 42-459 (501) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 42% 320-433 (753) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 606-752 (1358) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20.09 | 99% 904-7 (911) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 93.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$218.81 | 48% 1113-1229 (2342) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$185.26 | 59% 1104-757 (1861) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 46.9¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 51% 2039-1965 (4004) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 58.2¢ | $431.1 | $740.99 | +$309.89 | 57% 86-64 (150) |
 mihaXd | Downavg 61.4¢ | $435.6 | $709.83 | +$274.23 | 55% 141-116 (257) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.6¢ | $661.23 | $658.98 | -$2.25 | 44% 793-999 (1792) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 83.8¢ | $791.17 | $657.91 | -$133.27 | 34% 768-1509 (2277) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 59.2¢ | $374.01 | $632.19 | +$258.18 | 30% 133-309 (442) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 76.3¢ | $596.26 | $532.53 | -$63.73 | 52% 425-387 (812) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 57.1¢ | $317.13 | $540 | +$222.87 | 63% 80-47 (127) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $553.33 | $495.91 | -$20.3 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $463.08 | $475 | +$11.92 | 52% 955-872 (1827) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.6¢ | $404.53 | $462 | +$57.47 | 52% 5108-4798 (9906) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 83.5¢ | $580.87 | $453.61 | -$122.31 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.7¢ | $2.6K | $323.76 | -$866.61 | 51% 4812-4602 (9414) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Downavg 57.2¢ | $187.96 | $328.88 | +$140.92 | 61% 116-74 (190) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $326.97 | $328 | +$1.03 | 98% 4191-88 (4279) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 92.4¢ | $363.09 | $320.5 | -$42.6 | 47% 1130-1277 (2407) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 93.2¢ | $281.77 | $283.49 | +$1.71 | 51% 843-826 (1669) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 71.8¢ | $283.08 | $250.71 | -$27.86 | 46% 839-992 (1831) |
Invested
$8,789
Value
$7.2K
PnL
-$59.95
Record
55%
467-383 (850)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,488.19
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
8%
42-459 (501)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
42%
320-433 (753)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
606-752 (1358)
Invested
$1,988.79
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20.09
Record
99%
904-7 (911)
Invested
$1,809.83
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$218.81
Record
48%
1113-1229 (2342)
Invested
$1,042.27
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$185.26
Record
59%
1104-757 (1861)
Invested
$1,041.78
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
51%
2039-1965 (4004)
BossgirlInvested
$431.1
Value
$740.99
PnL
+$309.89
Record
57%
86-64 (150)
mihaXdInvested
$435.6
Value
$709.83
PnL
+$274.23
Record
55%
141-116 (257)
Invested
$661.23
Value
$658.98
PnL
-$2.25
Record
44%
793-999 (1792)
Invested
$791.17
Value
$657.91
PnL
-$133.27
Record
34%
768-1509 (2277)
Invested
$374.01
Value
$632.19
PnL
+$258.18
Record
30%
133-309 (442)
Invested
$596.26
Value
$532.53
PnL
-$63.73
Record
52%
425-387 (812)
Invested
$317.13
Value
$540
PnL
+$222.87
Record
63%
80-47 (127)
Invested
$553.33
Value
$495.91
PnL
-$20.3
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$463.08
Value
$475
PnL
+$11.92
Record
52%
955-872 (1827)
Invested
$404.53
Value
$462
PnL
+$57.47
Record
52%
5108-4798 (9906)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$580.87
Value
$453.61
PnL
-$122.31
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Invested
$2,574.21
Value
$323.76
PnL
-$866.61
Record
51%
4812-4602 (9414)
Invested
$187.96
Value
$328.88
PnL
+$140.92
Record
61%
116-74 (190)
Invested
$326.97
Value
$328
PnL
+$1.03
Record
98%
4191-88 (4279)
machinelearnedInvested
$363.09
Value
$320.5
PnL
-$42.6
Record
47%
1130-1277 (2407)
Invested
$281.77
Value
$283.49
PnL
+$1.71
Record
51%
843-826 (1669)
Invested
$283.08
Value
$250.71
PnL
-$27.86
Record
46%
839-992 (1831)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Down — $4.5K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $2.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.6K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.2K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
Bossgirl
Down — $740.99
mihaXd
Down — $709.83