Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

-$109.92

Smart Money Signal

24 of 39 top traders (62%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,122

Combined PnL+$470.86

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,307

Combined PnL-$580.78

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$50.1	42% 320-433 (753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.3K	—	$-2.4K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$108.39	45% 606-752 (1358)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.7K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.8K
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 43¢	$1.0K	$1.7K	+$687.43	59% 1104-757 (1861)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$727.94	$1.7K	+$963.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$275.81	—	-$275.81
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 44.2¢	$793.87	$952.81	+$158.94	48% 1113-1229 (2342)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 53.2¢	$919.58	$938.92	+$37.14	44% 793-999 (1792)
ST stepahead	Upavg 63.5¢	$639.37	$690.33	+$50.96	55% 4532-3662 (8194)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$631.33	$480.21	-$9.64	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$248.69	—	-$253.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.2¢	$245.87	$480.21	+$243.89
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$418.03	$443.05	+$25.01	46% 839-992 (1831)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.4¢	$180.97	—	-$180.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.5¢	$237.06	$443.05	+$205.98
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 56.6¢	$397.49	$406.35	+$8.86	34% 768-1509 (2277)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$167.42	—	-$167.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.6¢	$230.07	$406.35	+$176.28
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$305.84	$425.33	+$119.49	52% 5108-4798 (9906)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.5¢	$116.99	$425.33	+$308.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$188.85	—	-$188.85
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 47.9¢	$613.32	—	-$149.34	55% 467-383 (850)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$332.89	$347.69	+$14.8	54% 4626-3998 (8624)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$224.19	$347.69	+$123.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$108.69	—	-$108.69
BO bosona	Upavg 65.4¢	$795.85	$283.28	-$316.41	51% 4812-4602 (9414)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 80.9¢	$259.92	$250.01	-$9.91	52% 955-872 (1827)
AL almach	Upavg 55.7¢	$137.02	$242.8	+$105.78	51% 1570-1480 (3050)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 62.8¢	$183.29	$183.19	+$23.01	42% 825-1157 (1982)
NIULAI4	Upavg 67.6¢	$209.1	$289.8	+$80.7	29% 540-1311 (1851)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 68.3¢	$211.21	$309.01	+$97.8	51% 838-806 (1644)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 56.7¢	$109.57	$129.14	+$25.95	63% 4381-2627 (7008)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 49.9¢	$63	$126.2	+$63.2	52% 945-857 (1802)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 47.7¢	$98.96	$157.64	+$58.68	51% 845-816 (1661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.7¢	$75.13	$157.64	+$82.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 28¢	$23.83	—	-$23.83
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 27.6¢	$82.51	$53.37	-$29.14	48% 2388-2566 (4954)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.6¢	$48.74	—	-$48.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$33.77	$53.37	+$19.6
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 54.1¢	$135.8	$60.7	-$75.1	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.1¢	$91.42	—	-$91.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$44.39	$60.7	+$16.31
RA rabadabadoo	Upavg 68.5¢	$112.12	$110	-$1.43	47% 1608-1844 (3452)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 73¢	$127.28	$154.56	+$27.28	46% 763-886 (1649)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73¢	$112.79	$154.56	+$41.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$14.49	—	-$14.49

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$50.1

Record

42%

320-433 (753)

Both legs:

Up$2,497.550¢+$2.5K

Down$2,275.7450¢$-2.4K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$108.39

Record

45%

606-752 (1358)

Both legs:

Up$1,724.9950¢+$1.7K

Down$1,72550¢$-1.8K

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$1,003.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$687.43

Record

59%

1104-757 (1861)

Both legs:

Up$727.9443¢+$963.25

Down$275.8132.3¢-$275.81

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$793.87

Value

$952.81

PnL

+$158.94

Record

48%

1113-1229 (2342)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$919.58

Value

$938.92

PnL

+$37.14

Record

44%

793-999 (1792)

stepahead

Invested

$639.37

Value

$690.33

PnL

+$50.96

Record

55%

4532-3662 (8194)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$631.33

Value

$480.21

PnL

-$9.64

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Both legs:

Down$248.6949¢-$253.53

Up$245.8751.2¢+$243.89

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$418.03

Value

$443.05

PnL

+$25.01

Record

46%

839-992 (1831)

Both legs:

Down$180.9733.4¢-$180.97

Up$237.0653.5¢+$205.98

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$397.49

Value

$406.35

PnL

+$8.86

Record

34%

768-1509 (2277)

Both legs:

Down$167.4234.2¢-$167.42

Up$230.0756.6¢+$176.28

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$305.84

Value

$425.33

PnL

+$119.49

Record

52%

5108-4798 (9906)

Both legs:

Up$116.9927.5¢+$308.34

Down$188.8558.1¢-$188.85

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$613.32

Value

—

PnL

-$149.34

Record

55%

467-383 (850)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$332.89

Value

$347.69

PnL

+$14.8

Record

54%

4626-3998 (8624)

Both legs:

Up$224.1964.5¢+$123.5

Down$108.6937.4¢-$108.69

bosona

Invested

$795.85

Value

$283.28

PnL

-$316.41

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$259.92

Value

$250.01

PnL

-$9.91

Record

52%

955-872 (1827)

almach

Invested

$137.02

Value

$242.8

PnL

+$105.78

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$183.29

Value

$183.19

PnL

+$23.01

Record

42%

825-1157 (1982)

NIULAI4

Invested

$209.1

Value

$289.8

PnL

+$80.7

Record

29%

540-1311 (1851)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$211.21

Value

$309.01

PnL

+$97.8

Record

51%

838-806 (1644)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$109.57

Value

$129.14

PnL

+$25.95

Record

63%

4381-2627 (7008)

wzbbb

Invested

$63

Value

$126.2

PnL

+$63.2

Record

52%

945-857 (1802)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$98.96

Value

$157.64

PnL

+$58.68

Record

51%

845-816 (1661)

Both legs:

Up$75.1347.7¢+$82.51

Down$23.8328¢-$23.83

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$82.51

Value

$53.37

PnL

-$29.14

Record

48%

2388-2566 (4954)

Both legs:

Down$48.7427.6¢-$48.74

Up$33.7763.3¢+$19.6

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$135.8

Value

$60.7

PnL

-$75.1

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

Both legs:

Down$91.4254.1¢-$91.42

Up$44.3973.1¢+$16.31

rabadabadoo

Invested

$112.12

Value

$110

PnL

-$1.43

Record

47%

1608-1844 (3452)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$127.28

Value

$154.56

PnL

+$27.28

Record

46%

763-886 (1649)

Both legs:

Up$112.7973¢+$41.77

Down$14.4923¢-$14.49

Smart Money Signal

24 of 39 top traders (62%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x444f51fe...3626a7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794729900

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Up — $952.81

+$158.94

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $938.92

+$37.14

stepahead

Up — $690.33

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded