Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.5K

Combined PnL

-$902

Smart Money Signal

36 of 56 top traders (64%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up36 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares23,970

Combined PnL+$5.5K

Down20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,872

Combined PnL$-6.4K

Up — 64%Down — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh	Upavg 53.8¢	$6.7K	$4.7K	+$3.3K	7% 37-459 (496)
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.0K	-$462.8	43% 318-426 (744)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.0K	$4.0K	+$2.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.4K
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50.9¢	$8.9K	$3.4K	-$233.01	55% 465-380 (845)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.6K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.8K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.0K	-$517.83	45% 604-745 (1349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$3.0K	+$1.4K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.9K
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 60.5¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$3.04	59% 1099-753 (1852)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 72.7¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$165.7	34% 765-1503 (2268)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.7¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$583.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.4¢	$749.27	—	-$749.27
GA gansinimen	Upavg 66.3¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$69.74	52% 422-382 (804)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 58¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$10.1	52% 5102-4793 (9895)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 57.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$40.18	44% 789-994 (1783)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 90.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$202.76	48% 1107-1223 (2330)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$110.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.9¢	$313.03	—	-$313.03
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 84.6¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$430.04	29% 536-1306 (1842)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.6¢	$959.88	$1.1K	+$174.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$604.21	—	-$604.21
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$50.89	52% 948-867 (1815)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.2¢	$952.43	$1.2K	+$250.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.6¢	$301.73	—	-$301.73
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3660-3421 (7081)
PL ply-pm4	Upavg 53.8¢	$526.97	$909.43	+$411.29	34% 217-418 (635)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 52.1¢	$622.58	$893.75	+$277.05	62% 78-47 (125)
mihaXd	Upavg 55.9¢	$434.08	$776.56	+$342.47	54% 136-116 (252)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 53.3¢	$621.3	$776.31	+$463.73	29% 128-309 (437)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 62.5¢	$707.66	$746.02	+$38.36	46% 835-987 (1822)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 93.4¢	$912.82	$843	-$69.81	51% 834-813 (1647)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 68.8¢	$595.15	$644.56	+$83.91	52% 941-852 (1793)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Upavg 52.6¢	$313.33	$553.22	+$253.27	61% 116-74 (190)
Atomforge	Upavg 52.2¢	$237.21	$454.46	+$217.25	28% 299-782 (1081)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.8¢	$547.15	—	-$487.84	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 44.9¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 53¢	$560.26	$392.78	-$14.57	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$208.72	—	-$213.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$204.47	$392.78	+$199.36

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Invested

$6,707.32

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

37-459 (496)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$462.8

Record

43%

318-426 (744)

Both legs:

Up$1,976.0450¢+$2.0K

Down$2,065.1950¢$-2.4K

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,918.94

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$233.01

Record

55%

465-380 (845)

Both legs:

Up$1,728.4450.9¢+$1.6K

Down$1,697.0250¢$-1.8K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$517.83

Record

45%

604-745 (1349)

Both legs:

Up$1,476.0150¢+$1.4K

Down$1,671.9550¢$-1.9K

Bonereaper

Invested

$2,811.89

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$3.04

Record

59%

1099-753 (1852)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$2,299.65

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$165.7

Record

34%

765-1503 (2268)

Both legs:

Up$1,550.3872.7¢+$583.57

Down$749.2734.4¢-$749.27

gansinimen

Invested

$2,288.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$69.74

Record

52%

422-382 (804)

blue.birds

Invested

$1,945.68

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$10.1

Record

52%

5102-4793 (9895)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,573.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$40.18

Record

44%

789-994 (1783)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,418.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$202.76

Record

48%

1107-1223 (2330)

Both legs:

Up$1,105.0290.9¢+$110.27

Down$313.0319.9¢-$313.03

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,564.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$430.04

Record

29%

536-1306 (1842)

Both legs:

Up$959.8884.6¢+$174.17

Down$604.2135.1¢-$604.21

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$1,254.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$50.89

Record

52%

948-867 (1815)

Both legs:

Up$952.4379.2¢+$250.85

Down$301.7325.6¢-$301.73

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3660-3421 (7081)

ply-pm4

Invested

$526.97

Value

$909.43

PnL

+$411.29

Record

34%

217-418 (635)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$622.58

Value

$893.75

PnL

+$277.05

Record

62%

78-47 (125)

mihaXd

Invested

$434.08

Value

$776.56

PnL

+$342.47

Record

54%

136-116 (252)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$621.3

Value

$776.31

PnL

+$463.73

Record

29%

128-309 (437)

GoodFallen

Invested

$707.66

Value

$746.02

PnL

+$38.36

Record

46%

835-987 (1822)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$912.82

Value

$843

PnL

-$69.81

Record

51%

834-813 (1647)

wzbbb

Invested

$595.15

Value

$644.56

PnL

+$83.91

Record

52%

941-852 (1793)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Invested

$313.33

Value

$553.22

PnL

+$253.27

Record

61%

116-74 (190)

Atomforge

Invested

$237.21

Value

$454.46

PnL

+$217.25

Record

28%

299-782 (1081)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$547.15

Value

—

PnL

-$487.84

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$1,546.9

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$560.26

Value

$392.78

PnL

-$14.57

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

Both legs:

Down$208.7253¢-$213.93

Up$204.4752.1¢+$199.36

Smart Money Signal

36 of 56 top traders (64%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd3855d08...ead319

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794729600

Traders in this Market

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Up — $4.7K

+$3.3K

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$462.8

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $2.8K

-$3.04

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$165.7

gansinimen

Up — $2.1K

-$69.74

blue.birds

Up — $2.0K

+$10.1

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.6K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded