Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
71
Up 58%
2 arb excluded
$19.5K
$-15.8K
Smart Money Signal
42 of 71 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Upavg 72.2¢ | $5.2K | $7.1K | +$2.0K | 8% 42-459 (501) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-6.5K | 55% 467-383 (850) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 42% 320-433 (753) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 606-752 (1358) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$19.56 | 99% 904-7 (911) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | — | -$475 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 81.5¢ | $839.84 | $833.83 | -$6.01 | 44% 793-999 (1792) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.5¢ | $790.52 | $800 | +$9.48 | 98% 4191-88 (4279) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 76.4¢ | $913.14 | $751.36 | -$161.78 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Upavg 72¢ | $473.1 | $657.28 | +$184.18 | 30% 133-309 (442) |
PL ply-pm4 | Upavg 72.2¢ | $450.38 | $624.18 | +$173.8 | 34% 220-418 (638) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 86¢ | $644.96 | $620.7 | -$24.26 | 52% 5108-4798 (9906) |
 mihaXd | Upavg 67.6¢ | $404.31 | $597.74 | +$193.43 | 55% 141-116 (257) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $536.03 | $499.99 | -$15.45 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 80.3¢ | $527.81 | $431.81 | -$96 | 59% 1104-757 (1861) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $462.71 | $466.31 | +$3.6 | 52% 955-872 (1827) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh | Upavg 72.1¢ | $285.72 | $396.01 | +$110.29 | 61% 116-74 (190) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 94.6¢ | $502.09 | $382.44 | -$119.66 | 34% 768-1509 (2277) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 88.6¢ | $409.29 | $302.9 | -$106.39 | 52% 425-387 (812) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 28¢ | $492.45 | — | -$492.45 | 51% 1567-1482 (3049) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Downavg 26.5¢ | $387.37 | — | -$387.37 | 42% 1920-2608 (4528) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 82.2¢ | $255.26 | $190.13 | -$65.13 | 46% 839-992 (1831) |
AL almachCTR | Downavg 32.5¢ | $870.39 | — | -$870.39 | 51% 1570-1480 (3050) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $158.35 | $205 | +$46.65 | 63% 80-47 (127) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 38¢ | $245.59 | — | -$245.59 | 47% 1130-1277 (2407) |
Invested
$5,158.44
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
8%
42-459 (501)
Invested
$8,513
Value
—
PnL
$-6.5K
Record
55%
467-383 (850)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
42%
320-433 (753)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
606-752 (1358)
Invested
$1,936.21
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$19.56
Record
99%
904-7 (911)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Both legs:
Invested
$839.84
Value
$833.83
PnL
-$6.01
Record
44%
793-999 (1792)
Invested
$790.52
Value
$800
PnL
+$9.48
Record
98%
4191-88 (4279)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$913.14
Value
$751.36
PnL
-$161.78
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Invested
$473.1
Value
$657.28
PnL
+$184.18
Record
30%
133-309 (442)
Invested
$450.38
Value
$624.18
PnL
+$173.8
Record
34%
220-418 (638)
Invested
$644.96
Value
$620.7
PnL
-$24.26
Record
52%
5108-4798 (9906)
mihaXdInvested
$404.31
Value
$597.74
PnL
+$193.43
Record
55%
141-116 (257)
Invested
$536.03
Value
$499.99
PnL
-$15.45
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$527.81
Value
$431.81
PnL
-$96
Record
59%
1104-757 (1861)
Invested
$462.71
Value
$466.31
PnL
+$3.6
Record
52%
955-872 (1827)
Invested
$285.72
Value
$396.01
PnL
+$110.29
Record
61%
116-74 (190)
Invested
$502.09
Value
$382.44
PnL
-$119.66
Record
34%
768-1509 (2277)
Invested
$409.29
Value
$302.9
PnL
-$106.39
Record
52%
425-387 (812)
Invested
$492.45
Value
—
PnL
-$492.45
Record
51%
1567-1482 (3049)
Invested
$387.37
Value
—
PnL
-$387.37
Record
42%
1920-2608 (4528)
Invested
$255.26
Value
$190.13
PnL
-$65.13
Record
46%
839-992 (1831)
Invested
$870.39
Value
—
PnL
-$870.39
Record
51%
1570-1480 (3050)
Invested
$158.35
Value
$205
PnL
+$46.65
Record
63%
80-47 (127)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$245.59
Value
—
PnL
-$245.59
Record
47%
1130-1277 (2407)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Up — $7.1K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.0K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $833.83
hoodquant
Up — $800
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $751.36
0xdc27...afdd9a
Up — $657.28