Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.7K

Combined PnL

$-7.0K

Smart Money Signal

27 of 61 top traders (44%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down34 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,697

Combined PnL$-8.6K

Up27 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,218

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down — 56%Up — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$7.5K	+$0.9	55% 467-383 (850)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.5K	+$3.6K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.6K	—	$-3.6K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.3K	-$499.84	42% 320-433 (753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.1K	$4.3K	+$2.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.7K	45% 606-752 (1358)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 37.9¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$851.22	34% 768-1509 (2277)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 60.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$71.47	59% 1104-757 (1861)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.8¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$545.19	$1.5K	+$939.21
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 34.2¢	$975.38	$1.6K	+$621.6	44% 793-999 (1792)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 30.5¢	$800.11	$1.4K	+$591.68	52% 425-387 (812)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.07	52% 1501-1359 (2860)
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 64.1¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.2K	29% 540-1311 (1851)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 75.9¢	$1.2K	$892.88	-$323.87	52% 5108-4798 (9906)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.9¢	$789.98	—	-$789.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$426.78	$892.88	+$466.11
BO bosona	Upavg 97.8¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$514.49	51% 4812-4602 (9414)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$0	52% 3670-3435 (7105)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
MO mo-money	Upavg 84.5¢	$1.1K	$931.94	-$146.94	51% 1567-1482 (3049)
AL almach	Upavg 97.9¢	$1.2K	$931.94	-$313.14	51% 1570-1480 (3050)
ST stepaheadCTR	Downavg 73.3¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	55% 4532-3662 (8194)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 56.4¢	$673.05	—	-$652.65	46% 839-992 (1831)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 61¢	$676.6	$593.64	-$82.96	52% 955-872 (1827)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 70¢	$572.38	—	-$570.7	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 46.2¢	$527.33	$469.44	-$57.89	48% 1113-1229 (2342)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.6¢	$176.68	$469.44	+$292.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$350.65	—	-$350.65
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$623.47	$493.09	+$7.27	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$276.77	—	-$246.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$221.75	$493.09	+$253.56
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 84.5¢	$638.29	$493.87	-$144.42	51% 845-816 (1661)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 69.6¢	$626.46	$469.93	-$156.53	51% 838-806 (1644)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.6¢	$327.18	$469.93	+$142.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.2¢	$299.28	—	-$299.28
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 61.3¢	$397.07	—	-$376.67	54% 4626-3998 (8624)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 56.5¢	$654.11	$391.24	-$20.66	51% 2389-2256 (4645)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 75.4¢	$509.42	$230.26	-$279.17	51% 839-817 (1656)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.4¢	$366.84	—	-$366.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.9¢	$142.59	$230.26	+$87.67

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,888

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

467-383 (850)

Both legs:

Up$3,762.5450¢+$3.6K

Down$3,606.950¢$-3.6K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$499.84

Record

42%

320-433 (753)

Both legs:

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

45%

606-752 (1358)

ply-pm0

Invested

$1,390.89

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$851.22

Record

34%

768-1509 (2277)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,555.88

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$71.47

Record

59%

1104-757 (1861)

Both legs:

Down$1,010.6960.8¢$-1.0K

Up$545.1936.7¢+$939.21

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$975.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$621.6

Record

44%

793-999 (1792)

gansinimen

Invested

$800.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$591.68

Record

52%

425-387 (812)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,194.54

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.07

Record

52%

1501-1359 (2860)

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$1,282.29

Value

—

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

29%

540-1311 (1851)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,216.76

Value

$892.88

PnL

-$323.87

Record

52%

5108-4798 (9906)

Both legs:

Down$789.9875.9¢-$789.98

Up$426.7847.8¢+$466.11

bosona

Invested

$1,867.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$514.49

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

3670-3435 (7105)

Both legs:

Down$47550¢-$475

Up$47550¢+$475

mo-money

Invested

$1,078.88

Value

$931.94

PnL

-$146.94

Record

51%

1567-1482 (3049)

almach

Invested

$1,245.08

Value

$931.94

PnL

-$313.14

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

stepaheadCTR

Down

Invested

$1,005.89

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

55%

4532-3662 (8194)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$673.05

Value

—

PnL

-$652.65

Record

46%

839-992 (1831)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$676.6

Value

$593.64

PnL

-$82.96

Record

52%

955-872 (1827)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$572.38

Value

—

PnL

-$570.7

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$527.33

Value

$469.44

PnL

-$57.89

Record

48%

1113-1229 (2342)

Both legs:

Up$176.6837.6¢+$292.75

Down$350.6546.2¢-$350.65

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$623.47

Value

$493.09

PnL

+$7.27

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Both legs:

Down$276.7755.1¢-$246.29

Up$221.7545¢+$253.56

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$638.29

Value

$493.87

PnL

-$144.42

Record

51%

845-816 (1661)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$626.46

Value

$469.93

PnL

-$156.53

Record

51%

838-806 (1644)

Both legs:

Up$327.1869.6¢+$142.75

Down$299.2870.2¢-$299.28

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$397.07

Value

—

PnL

-$376.67

Record

54%

4626-3998 (8624)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$654.11

Value

$391.24

PnL

-$20.66

Record

51%

2389-2256 (4645)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$509.42

Value

$230.26

PnL

-$279.17

Record

51%

839-817 (1656)

Both legs:

Down$366.8475.4¢-$366.84

Up$142.5961.9¢+$87.67

Smart Money Signal

27 of 61 top traders (44%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8b8411c3...cb5876

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794729000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $2.2K

+$851.22

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$71.47

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.6K

+$621.6

gansinimen

Up — $1.4K

+$591.68

0x50f7

Up — $1.2K

NIULAI4

Down — $0

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded