Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

45 of 55 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down45 traders

Total Value$32.1K

Total Shares32,082

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,982

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.4K	+$105.24	55% 465-380 (845)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	43% 318-426 (744)
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.7¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$48.62	70% 1738-741 (2479)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$32.27	45% 604-745 (1349)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$35.46	99% 899-7 (906)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	52% 1489-1357 (2846)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$41.12	98% 4160-87 (4247)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 73.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$127.97	59% 1099-753 (1852)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 84.8¢	$798.79	$890.61	+$91.82	48% 1107-1223 (2330)
BO bosona	Downavg 96.4¢	$1.1K	$628.59	+$27.44	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
MO mo-money	Downavg 97.4¢	$1.1K	$616.78	+$34.19	51% 1558-1472 (3030)
machinelearned	Downavg 78.4¢	$542.32	$691.64	+$149.32	47% 1125-1273 (2398)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.1¢	$508.1	$500	+$12.2	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 56.3¢	$369.35	$508.37	+$139.02	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
ST stepahead	Downavg 65.3¢	$283.33	$353.71	+$70.38	55% 4526-3656 (8182)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 93.8¢	$313.97	$315.91	+$1.94	52% 948-867 (1815)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 85¢	$281.93	$315.9	+$33.97	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
AL almach	Downavg 82.1¢	$239.96	$287.18	+$47.22	52% 1562-1470 (3032)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 82.1¢	$202.38	$226.97	+$24.58	52% 5102-4793 (9895)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 98.5¢	$221.25	$222.01	+$0.76	39% 1607-2488 (4095)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 77¢	$240.69	$192.44	-$48.25	44% 789-994 (1783)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 94.8¢	$162.05	$170.91	+$8.86	52% 2876-2608 (5484)
pspspsps5	Downavg 98.9¢	$142.98	$143.22	+$0.24	33% 1149-2293 (3442)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 82.3¢	$116.4	$124.7	+$8.56	52% 941-852 (1793)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 92¢	$152.87	$90	-$62.87	46% 835-987 (1822)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92¢	$82.8	$90	+$7.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$70.07	—	-$70.07