Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Down 74%
2 arb excluded
$19.1K
$-7.6K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 50 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.9K | +$128.79 | 55% 465-380 (845) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.3K | 43% 318-426 (744) |
TH THG. | Downavg 98.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$57.69 | 99% 899-7 (906) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.1K | 45% 604-745 (1349) |
BO bosona | Downavg 84.2¢ | $907.04 | $1.1K | +$145.42 | 51% 4806-4590 (9396) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 83.4¢ | $814.24 | $976.63 | +$162.39 | 47% 1125-1273 (2398) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59.1¢ | $841.92 | $736.66 | -$57.17 | 59% 1099-753 (1852) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 90.2¢ | $490.63 | $525.63 | +$35 | 51% 1558-1472 (3030) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $600.34 | $497.22 | +$7.7 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 67¢ | $372.01 | $411.49 | +$39.48 | 44% 789-994 (1783) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 23.2¢ | $311.6 | $335.27 | +$23.67 | 48% 1107-1223 (2330) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.8¢ | $150.08 | $335.27 | +$185.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.2¢ | $161.53 | — | -$161.53 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.2¢ | $303.24 | $335.99 | +$32.75 | 55% 4526-3656 (8182) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 73.2¢ | $294.05 | $317.63 | +$23.59 | 52% 5102-4793 (9895) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $308.99 | $290.49 | -$18.5 | 50% 3448-3455 (6903) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 88.1¢ | $222.09 | $233.11 | +$11.02 | 52% 948-867 (1815) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $189.69 | $192.39 | +$2.7 | 34% 765-1503 (2268) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 57.1¢ | $177.19 | $164 | -$13.19 | 46% 835-987 (1822) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.1¢ | $93.7 | $164 | +$70.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.1¢ | $83.49 | — | -$83.49 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 55.5¢ | $128.99 | $184.98 | +$55.99 | 54% 4621-3994 (8615) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 77¢ | $170.42 | $146.33 | -$24.09 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 66.2¢ | $178.35 | $108.26 | -$21.14 | 52% 941-852 (1793) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 48.6¢ | $106.97 | $220 | +$113.03 | 51% 1057-1008 (2065) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $73.92 | $90.5 | +$16.58 | 51% 839-821 (1660) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $86.5 | — | -$86.5 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $67.65 | $75.95 | +$8.3 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
Invested
$8,754
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$128.79
Record
55%
465-380 (845)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
43%
318-426 (744)
Invested
$3,442.31
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$57.69
Record
99%
899-7 (906)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
45%
604-745 (1349)
Invested
$907.04
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$145.42
Record
51%
4806-4590 (9396)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
machinelearnedInvested
$814.24
Value
$976.63
PnL
+$162.39
Record
47%
1125-1273 (2398)
Invested
$841.92
Value
$736.66
PnL
-$57.17
Record
59%
1099-753 (1852)
Invested
$490.63
Value
$525.63
PnL
+$35
Record
51%
1558-1472 (3030)
Invested
$600.34
Value
$497.22
PnL
+$7.7
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$372.01
Value
$411.49
PnL
+$39.48
Record
44%
789-994 (1783)
Invested
$311.6
Value
$335.27
PnL
+$23.67
Record
48%
1107-1223 (2330)
Both legs:
Invested
$303.24
Value
$335.99
PnL
+$32.75
Record
55%
4526-3656 (8182)
Invested
$294.05
Value
$317.63
PnL
+$23.59
Record
52%
5102-4793 (9895)
Invested
$308.99
Value
$290.49
PnL
-$18.5
Record
50%
3448-3455 (6903)
Invested
$222.09
Value
$233.11
PnL
+$11.02
Record
52%
948-867 (1815)
Invested
$189.69
Value
$192.39
PnL
+$2.7
Record
34%
765-1503 (2268)
Invested
$177.19
Value
$164
PnL
-$13.19
Record
46%
835-987 (1822)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$128.99
Value
$184.98
PnL
+$55.99
Record
54%
4621-3994 (8615)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$170.42
Value
$146.33
PnL
-$24.09
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$178.35
Value
$108.26
PnL
-$21.14
Record
52%
941-852 (1793)
Invested
$106.97
Value
$220
PnL
+$113.03
Record
51%
1057-1008 (2065)
Invested
$73.92
Value
$90.5
PnL
+$16.58
Record
51%
839-821 (1660)
Invested
$86.5
Value
—
PnL
-$86.5
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
Invested
$67.65
Value
$75.95
PnL
+$8.3
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
bosona
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $976.63
Bonereaper
Down — $736.66
mo-money
Down — $525.63
ByteBadger92
Down — $497.22