Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 81%
2 arb excluded
$27.4K
$-8.0K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 53 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.53 | 52% 1489-1357 (2846) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.3K | +$127.22 | 55% 465-380 (845) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 43% 318-426 (744) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 604-745 (1349) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$12.75 | 99% 899-7 (906) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 85.4¢ | $981.13 | $1.1K | +$167.59 | 47% 1125-1273 (2398) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.6¢ | $810.09 | $813.66 | +$3.57 | 50% 1667-1698 (3365) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $631.62 | $638 | +$6.38 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
BO bosona | Downavg 95.8¢ | $588.16 | $601.83 | +$13.67 | 51% 4806-4590 (9396) |
AL almach | Downavg 99.8¢ | $572.05 | $553.81 | -$18.25 | 52% 1562-1470 (3032) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $544.24 | $490.34 | -$4.12 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 80¢ | $429.32 | $487.79 | +$58.47 | 48% 1107-1223 (2330) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 77.2¢ | $483.24 | $460.81 | -$22.44 | 59% 1099-753 (1852) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 73.6¢ | $378.27 | $387.98 | +$9.71 | 55% 4526-3656 (8182) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 85¢ | $231.81 | $243.33 | +$11.52 | 52% 5102-4793 (9895) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $234.74 | $233.96 | -$0.78 | 52% 948-867 (1815) |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $191.6 | $181.01 | -$10.59 | 34% 765-1503 (2268) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73.8¢ | $133.5 | $181.01 | +$47.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.5¢ | $58.1 | — | -$58.1 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70¢ | $284.63 | $180.69 | -$4.8 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.7¢ | $148.26 | $113.82 | -$34.45 | 44% 789-994 (1783) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $103.24 | $90.1 | -$13.14 | 46% 835-987 (1822) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69¢ | $62.15 | $90.1 | +$27.95 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.1¢ | $41.08 | — | -$41.08 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $88.52 | $116.96 | +$28.44 | 51% 839-821 (1660) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $70.87 | $88.09 | +$17.22 | 59% 1021-713 (1734) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 98.3¢ | $86.54 | $88 | +$1.46 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $53.46 | $81.5 | +$28.04 | 51% 842-812 (1654) |
Invested
$8,994.5
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.53
Record
52%
1489-1357 (2846)
Invested
$8,684
Value
$8.3K
PnL
+$127.22
Record
55%
465-380 (845)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
43%
318-426 (744)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
604-745 (1349)
Invested
$1,262.19
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$12.75
Record
99%
899-7 (906)
machinelearnedInvested
$981.13
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$167.59
Record
47%
1125-1273 (2398)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$810.09
Value
$813.66
PnL
+$3.57
Record
50%
1667-1698 (3365)
Invested
$631.62
Value
$638
PnL
+$6.38
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
Invested
$588.16
Value
$601.83
PnL
+$13.67
Record
51%
4806-4590 (9396)
Invested
$572.05
Value
$553.81
PnL
-$18.25
Record
52%
1562-1470 (3032)
Invested
$544.24
Value
$490.34
PnL
-$4.12
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$429.32
Value
$487.79
PnL
+$58.47
Record
48%
1107-1223 (2330)
Invested
$483.24
Value
$460.81
PnL
-$22.44
Record
59%
1099-753 (1852)
Invested
$378.27
Value
$387.98
PnL
+$9.71
Record
55%
4526-3656 (8182)
Invested
$231.81
Value
$243.33
PnL
+$11.52
Record
52%
5102-4793 (9895)
Invested
$234.74
Value
$233.96
PnL
-$0.78
Record
52%
948-867 (1815)
Invested
$191.6
Value
$181.01
PnL
-$10.59
Record
34%
765-1503 (2268)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$284.63
Value
$180.69
PnL
-$4.8
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$148.26
Value
$113.82
PnL
-$34.45
Record
44%
789-994 (1783)
Invested
$103.24
Value
$90.1
PnL
-$13.14
Record
46%
835-987 (1822)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.52
Value
$116.96
PnL
+$28.44
Record
51%
839-821 (1660)
Invested
$70.87
Value
$88.09
PnL
+$17.22
Record
59%
1021-713 (1734)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$86.54
Value
$88
PnL
+$1.46
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
Invested
$53.46
Value
$81.5
PnL
+$28.04
Record
51%
842-812 (1654)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.3K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $1.3K
machinelearned
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
Down — $950
cryingbabydicer87
Down — $813.66
hoodquant
Down — $638
bosona
Down — $601.83