Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
49
Up 31%
6 arb excluded
$10.9K
$-17.3K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 49 top traders (33%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.0K | 55% 465-380 (845) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 318-426 (744) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 604-745 (1349) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 94.4¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$129.19 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$20.99 | 99% 899-7 (906) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 81.8¢ | $595.47 | $578.79 | -$16.67 | 48% 1107-1223 (2330) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74.4¢ | $416.98 | $557.36 | +$140.38 | 51% 4806-4590 (9396) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 29.7¢ | $914.88 | — | -$804.63 | 59% 1099-753 (1852) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 84.7¢ | $514.04 | $606.63 | +$92.59 | 47% 1125-1273 (2398) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $592.45 | $488.9 | -$4.69 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
AL almach | Downavg 85¢ | $438.11 | $500 | +$61.89 | 52% 1562-1470 (3032) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $429.66 | $434 | +$4.34 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.3¢ | $427.18 | $421.11 | -$6.07 | 55% 4526-3656 (8182) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 66.1¢ | $524.02 | $344.17 | +$36.39 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 82.4¢ | $270.02 | $327.76 | +$57.74 | 51% 1558-1472 (3030) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.9¢ | $292.5 | $316.33 | +$32.02 | 52% 5102-4793 (9895) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $318.36 | $235.63 | -$82.73 | 44% 789-994 (1783) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.1¢ | $186.36 | $235.63 | +$49.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29.5¢ | $132 | — | -$132 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $229.69 | $246.69 | +$17 | 34% 765-1503 (2268) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.3¢ | $168.41 | $246.69 | +$78.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.8¢ | $61.28 | — | -$61.28 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $154.64 | $154.68 | +$0.03 | 52% 948-867 (1815) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 73¢ | $103.93 | $126 | +$22.07 | 48% 778-845 (1623) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $104.93 | $126 | +$21.07 | 51% 834-813 (1647) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 69.2¢ | $109.74 | $123.1 | +$13.36 | 46% 835-987 (1822) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.2¢ | $85.14 | $123.1 | +$37.96 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.1¢ | $24.6 | — | -$24.6 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $99.15 | $125.45 | +$26.31 | 52% 941-852 (1793) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.8¢ | $87.6 | $125.45 | +$37.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 13.5¢ | $11.55 | — | -$11.55 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $101.63 | $88.97 | -$12.67 | 51% 839-821 (1660) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.7¢ | $45.32 | — | -$45.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.3¢ | $56.32 | $88.97 | +$32.65 |
Invested
$8,826
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
55%
465-380 (845)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
318-426 (744)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
604-745 (1349)
Invested
$2,178.72
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$129.19
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
Invested
$2,077.65
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$20.99
Record
99%
899-7 (906)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Invested
$595.47
Value
$578.79
PnL
-$16.67
Record
48%
1107-1223 (2330)
Invested
$416.98
Value
$557.36
PnL
+$140.38
Record
51%
4806-4590 (9396)
Invested
$914.88
Value
—
PnL
-$804.63
Record
59%
1099-753 (1852)
machinelearnedInvested
$514.04
Value
$606.63
PnL
+$92.59
Record
47%
1125-1273 (2398)
Invested
$592.45
Value
$488.9
PnL
-$4.69
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$438.11
Value
$500
PnL
+$61.89
Record
52%
1562-1470 (3032)
Invested
$429.66
Value
$434
PnL
+$4.34
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
Invested
$427.18
Value
$421.11
PnL
-$6.07
Record
55%
4526-3656 (8182)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$524.02
Value
$344.17
PnL
+$36.39
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$270.02
Value
$327.76
PnL
+$57.74
Record
51%
1558-1472 (3030)
Invested
$292.5
Value
$316.33
PnL
+$32.02
Record
52%
5102-4793 (9895)
Invested
$318.36
Value
$235.63
PnL
-$82.73
Record
44%
789-994 (1783)
Both legs:
Invested
$229.69
Value
$246.69
PnL
+$17
Record
34%
765-1503 (2268)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.64
Value
$154.68
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
948-867 (1815)
Invested
$103.93
Value
$126
PnL
+$22.07
Record
48%
778-845 (1623)
Invested
$104.93
Value
$126
PnL
+$21.07
Record
51%
834-813 (1647)
Invested
$109.74
Value
$123.1
PnL
+$13.36
Record
46%
835-987 (1822)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.15
Value
$125.45
PnL
+$26.31
Record
52%
941-852 (1793)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.63
Value
$88.97
PnL
-$12.67
Record
51%
839-821 (1660)
Both legs:
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.3K
THG.
Down — $2.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $578.79
bosona
Down — $557.36
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $606.63