Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 61%
10 arb excluded
$18.0K
$-11.0K
Smart Money Signal
31 of 51 top traders (61%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $7.7K | +$99.67 | 55% 465-380 (845) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 43% 318-426 (744) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.2K | 45% 604-745 (1349) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 52.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$224.73 | 59% 1099-753 (1852) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 47.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$163.75 | 44% 789-994 (1783) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 65.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$71.14 | 48% 1107-1223 (2330) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 48.1¢ | $761.67 | — | -$761.67 | 46% 835-987 (1822) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $841.5 | $850 | +$8.5 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$5.99 | 47% 1125-1273 (2398) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$153.06 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.8¢ | $159.04 | — | -$159.04 | |
 NIULAI4CTR | Upavg 55.9¢ | $420.23 | — | -$420.23 | 29% 536-1306 (1842) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $614.1 | $491.81 | +$0.24 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.9¢ | $255.18 | $491.81 | +$246.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $238.78 | — | -$246.03 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $492.46 | $379.72 | +$8.02 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.4¢ | $151.08 | — | -$132.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.9¢ | $223.47 | $379.72 | +$140.27 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 75.4¢ | $444.85 | $324.99 | -$119.86 | 52% 948-867 (1815) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Upavg 55.9¢ | $294.16 | — | -$294.16 | 51% 834-813 (1647) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 33.9¢ | $613.58 | $358.28 | +$99.89 | 34% 765-1503 (2268) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 54.2¢ | $248.18 | $265.01 | +$18.93 | 50% 816-807 (1623) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Upavg 53.6¢ | $229.65 | — | -$229.65 | 48% 778-845 (1623) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Upavg 64.2¢ | $300.26 | $131.9 | -$168.36 | 51% 833-802 (1635) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 64.2¢ | $210.75 | — | -$210.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.9¢ | $89.5 | $131.9 | +$42.39 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Downavg 41.4¢ | $272.84 | $440.56 | +$167.72 | 51% 839-821 (1660) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $90.39 | — | -$90.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.4¢ | $182.45 | $440.56 | +$258.11 | |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 36.8¢ | $153.55 | $209.99 | +$73.54 | 41% 819-1155 (1974) |
AL almachCTR | Upavg 48.5¢ | $165.75 | — | -$165.75 | 52% 1562-1470 (3032) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 35.9¢ | $112.35 | — | -$112.35 | 52% 5102-4793 (9895) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 51.7¢ | $218.61 | — | -$202.11 | 54% 4621-3994 (8615) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 45.9¢ | $288.03 | — | -$279.43 | 55% 4526-3656 (8182) |
Invested
$8,896
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$99.67
Record
55%
465-380 (845)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
43%
318-426 (744)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
45%
604-745 (1349)
Invested
$1,364.03
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$224.73
Record
59%
1099-753 (1852)
Invested
$1,207.65
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$163.75
Record
44%
789-994 (1783)
Invested
$1,074.54
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$71.14
Record
48%
1107-1223 (2330)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Invested
$761.67
Value
—
PnL
-$761.67
Record
46%
835-987 (1822)
Invested
$841.5
Value
$850
PnL
+$8.5
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$1,207.21
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$5.99
Record
47%
1125-1273 (2398)
Both legs:
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$420.23
Value
—
PnL
-$420.23
Record
29%
536-1306 (1842)
Invested
$614.1
Value
$491.81
PnL
+$0.24
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$492.46
Value
$379.72
PnL
+$8.02
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Both legs:
Invested
$444.85
Value
$324.99
PnL
-$119.86
Record
52%
948-867 (1815)
Invested
$294.16
Value
—
PnL
-$294.16
Record
51%
834-813 (1647)
Invested
$613.58
Value
$358.28
PnL
+$99.89
Record
34%
765-1503 (2268)
OhioAIInvested
$248.18
Value
$265.01
PnL
+$18.93
Record
50%
816-807 (1623)
Invested
$229.65
Value
—
PnL
-$229.65
Record
48%
778-845 (1623)
Invested
$300.26
Value
$131.9
PnL
-$168.36
Record
51%
833-802 (1635)
Both legs:
Invested
$272.84
Value
$440.56
PnL
+$167.72
Record
51%
839-821 (1660)
Both legs:
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$153.55
Value
$209.99
PnL
+$73.54
Record
41%
819-1155 (1974)
Invested
$165.75
Value
—
PnL
-$165.75
Record
52%
1562-1470 (3032)
Invested
$112.35
Value
—
PnL
-$112.35
Record
52%
5102-4793 (9895)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$218.61
Value
—
PnL
-$202.11
Record
54%
4621-3994 (8615)
Invested
$288.03
Value
—
PnL
-$279.43
Record
55%
4526-3656 (8182)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.7K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $1.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.0K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $850
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded