Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
49
Down 78%
$22.4K
$-5.4K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 49 top traders (78%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.4K | +$40.63 | 55% 465-380 (845) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 318-426 (744) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$3.98 | 45% 604-745 (1349) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 52% 1489-1357 (2846) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$20.27 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$950 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 88.3¢ | $815.73 | $820.68 | +$4.94 | 48% 1107-1223 (2330) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 81.5¢ | $734.34 | $584.92 | +$53.9 | 59% 1099-753 (1852) |
BO bosona | Downavg 91.7¢ | $463.2 | $504.19 | +$40.99 | 51% 4806-4590 (9396) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52¢ | $534.39 | $500 | +$18.43 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
AL almach | Downavg 96.8¢ | $447.35 | $407.12 | -$40.24 | 52% 1562-1470 (3032) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 86.5¢ | $379.55 | $438.92 | +$59.36 | 47% 1125-1273 (2398) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 64.2¢ | $159.87 | $249.12 | +$89.25 | 51% 1057-1008 (2065) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 78.9¢ | $228.84 | $206.73 | -$22.11 | 55% 4526-3656 (8182) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 92.9¢ | $185.42 | $199.5 | +$14.07 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 99.1¢ | $730.5 | $186.9 | -$38.87 | 51% 1558-1472 (3030) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 97.6¢ | $164.96 | $169 | +$4.04 | 39% 1607-2488 (4095) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 85.8¢ | $319.93 | $155.46 | -$13.65 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.6¢ | $126.27 | $148.78 | +$22.51 | 52% 5102-4793 (9895) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 95.3¢ | $109.38 | $114.82 | +$5.44 | 33% 1149-2293 (3442) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 92.8¢ | $108.14 | $105.24 | -$2.91 | 52% 948-867 (1815) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 83.8¢ | $95.52 | $113.97 | +$18.45 | 48% 778-845 (1623) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $65 | $99.99 | +$35 | 52% 422-382 (804) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $74.79 | $66.46 | -$8.34 | 44% 789-994 (1783) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $70.77 | $63 | -$7.77 | 51% 842-812 (1654) |
Invested
$8,749
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$40.63
Record
55%
465-380 (845)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
318-426 (744)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$3.98
Record
45%
604-745 (1349)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
52%
1489-1357 (2846)
Invested
$1,478.73
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$20.27
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$950
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Invested
$815.73
Value
$820.68
PnL
+$4.94
Record
48%
1107-1223 (2330)
Invested
$734.34
Value
$584.92
PnL
+$53.9
Record
59%
1099-753 (1852)
Invested
$463.2
Value
$504.19
PnL
+$40.99
Record
51%
4806-4590 (9396)
Invested
$534.39
Value
$500
PnL
+$18.43
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$447.35
Value
$407.12
PnL
-$40.24
Record
52%
1562-1470 (3032)
machinelearnedInvested
$379.55
Value
$438.92
PnL
+$59.36
Record
47%
1125-1273 (2398)
Invested
$159.87
Value
$249.12
PnL
+$89.25
Record
51%
1057-1008 (2065)
Invested
$228.84
Value
$206.73
PnL
-$22.11
Record
55%
4526-3656 (8182)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$185.42
Value
$199.5
PnL
+$14.07
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
Invested
$730.5
Value
$186.9
PnL
-$38.87
Record
51%
1558-1472 (3030)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$164.96
Value
$169
PnL
+$4.04
Record
39%
1607-2488 (4095)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$319.93
Value
$155.46
PnL
-$13.65
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$126.27
Value
$148.78
PnL
+$22.51
Record
52%
5102-4793 (9895)
pspspsps5Invested
$109.38
Value
$114.82
PnL
+$5.44
Record
33%
1149-2293 (3442)
Invested
$108.14
Value
$105.24
PnL
-$2.91
Record
52%
948-867 (1815)
Invested
$95.52
Value
$113.97
PnL
+$18.45
Record
48%
778-845 (1623)
Invested
$65
Value
$99.99
PnL
+$35
Record
52%
422-382 (804)
Invested
$74.79
Value
$66.46
PnL
-$8.34
Record
44%
789-994 (1783)
Invested
$70.77
Value
$63
PnL
-$7.77
Record
51%
842-812 (1654)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.4K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $820.68
Bonereaper
Down — $584.92
bosona
Down — $504.19
ByteBadger92
Down — $500