Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 49 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down40 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares26,093

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares338

Combined PnL-$149.24

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	$8.6K	+$60.49	55% 465-380 (845)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0.2	43% 318-426 (744)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$60.01	45% 604-745 (1349)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$14.28	98% 4160-87 (4247)
machinelearned	Downavg 76.5¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$368.92	47% 1125-1273 (2398)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71.8¢	$623.15	$719.8	+$96.65	48% 1107-1223 (2330)
AL almach	Downavg 84.1¢	$576.56	$685.28	+$108.72	52% 1562-1470 (3032)
MO mo-money	Downavg 78.6¢	$495.39	$630.25	+$134.85	51% 1558-1472 (3030)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.1¢	$529.48	$502.52	+$8.58	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
BO bosona	Downavg 81.5¢	$679.26	$832.95	+$153.7	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 67.8¢	$378.33	$382.63	+$61.5	59% 1099-753 (1852)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 72.9¢	$387.59	$283.12	+$0.16	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 61.1¢	$152.2	$215.31	+$63.11	34% 765-1503 (2268)
ST stepahead	Downavg 67.9¢	$168.5	$215.87	+$47.37	55% 4526-3656 (8182)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 76.5¢	$273.1	$190.1	-$56.29	44% 789-994 (1783)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 77.4¢	$114.89	$147.15	+$32.26	52% 422-382 (804)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 66.1¢	$85.92	$130	+$44.08	41% 819-1155 (1974)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 83.3¢	$206.24	$92.85	-$41.31	52% 5102-4793 (9895)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 83¢	$71.6	$75	+$3.4	52% 948-867 (1815)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$56.74	$83.64	+$26.9	54% 4621-3994 (8615)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 89.3¢	$48.36	$54.14	+$5.78	39% 1607-2488 (4095)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$42.72	$48.78	+$6.06	44% 2281-2921 (5202)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.5¢	$18.25	—	-$18.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$24.47	$48.78	+$24.31
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60¢	$25.94	$41	+$14.37	62% 4354-2613 (6967)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$40.01	$83.78	+$43.77	51% 1057-1008 (2065)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 70.1¢	$28.61	$40.79	+$12.18	67% 3707-1852 (5559)