Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
50
Down 72%
1 arb excluded
$13.5K
$-12.6K
Smart Money Signal
36 of 50 top traders (72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.4K | 55% 456-377 (833) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 312-418 (730) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$94.83 | 45% 599-736 (1335) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 893-7 (900) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$145.47 | 59% 1093-745 (1838) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72¢ | $691.51 | $712.94 | +$21.42 | 48% 1102-1211 (2313) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $545.03 | $505.68 | -$0.36 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.8¢ | $471.58 | $499.85 | +$28.27 | 55% 4512-3652 (8164) |
BO bosona | Downavg 76.6¢ | $358.95 | $440.8 | +$81.85 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 74.5¢ | $266.52 | $313.03 | +$46.51 | 52% 5094-4784 (9878) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $267.59 | $304.41 | +$36.82 | 34% 756-1498 (2254) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 74.9¢ | $267.77 | $273.51 | +$5.74 | 44% 782-987 (1769) |
AL almach | Downavg 85.9¢ | $278.81 | $261.96 | -$16.85 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 52.8¢ | $104.1 | $191.6 | +$87.5 | 52% 932-847 (1779) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 60.5¢ | $93.6 | $125.66 | +$32.05 | 46% 831-977 (1808) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 89¢ | $130.37 | $106.14 | -$1.22 | 52% 938-859 (1797) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 71¢ | $98.37 | $115.74 | +$31.9 | 59% 1016-717 (1733) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $84.56 | $93.09 | +$8.53 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 81.4¢ | $88.55 | $86.71 | +$14.57 | 59% 1029-716 (1745) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $89.64 | $74.31 | +$13.68 | 59% 1011-709 (1720) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $61.75 | $75 | +$13.25 | 47% 1115-1269 (2384) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $48.35 | $65.84 | +$17.49 | 67% 3669-1840 (5509) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $45.36 | $63 | +$17.64 | 51% 836-811 (1647) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $76.07 | $63 | -$13.07 | 51% 829-806 (1635) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $56.34 | $64 | +$7.66 | 52% 2858-2596 (5454) |
Invested
$8,845
Value
—
PnL
$-8.4K
Record
55%
456-377 (833)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
312-418 (730)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$94.83
Record
45%
599-736 (1335)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
893-7 (900)
Invested
$1,131.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$145.47
Record
59%
1093-745 (1838)
Invested
$691.51
Value
$712.94
PnL
+$21.42
Record
48%
1102-1211 (2313)
Invested
$545.03
Value
$505.68
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Invested
$471.58
Value
$499.85
PnL
+$28.27
Record
55%
4512-3652 (8164)
Invested
$358.95
Value
$440.8
PnL
+$81.85
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Invested
$266.52
Value
$313.03
PnL
+$46.51
Record
52%
5094-4784 (9878)
Invested
$267.59
Value
$304.41
PnL
+$36.82
Record
34%
756-1498 (2254)
Invested
$267.77
Value
$273.51
PnL
+$5.74
Record
44%
782-987 (1769)
Invested
$278.81
Value
$261.96
PnL
-$16.85
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$104.1
Value
$191.6
PnL
+$87.5
Record
52%
932-847 (1779)
Invested
$93.6
Value
$125.66
PnL
+$32.05
Record
46%
831-977 (1808)
Invested
$130.37
Value
$106.14
PnL
-$1.22
Record
52%
938-859 (1797)
Invested
$98.37
Value
$115.74
PnL
+$31.9
Record
59%
1016-717 (1733)
Invested
$84.56
Value
$93.09
PnL
+$8.53
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
Invested
$88.55
Value
$86.71
PnL
+$14.57
Record
59%
1029-716 (1745)
Invested
$89.64
Value
$74.31
PnL
+$13.68
Record
59%
1011-709 (1720)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$61.75
Value
$75
PnL
+$13.25
Record
47%
1115-1269 (2384)
Invested
$48.35
Value
$65.84
PnL
+$17.49
Record
67%
3669-1840 (5509)
Invested
$45.36
Value
$63
PnL
+$17.64
Record
51%
836-811 (1647)
Invested
$76.07
Value
$63
PnL
-$13.07
Record
51%
829-806 (1635)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$56.34
Value
$64
PnL
+$7.66
Record
52%
2858-2596 (5454)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $712.94
ByteBadger92
Down — $505.68
stepahead
Down — $499.85
bosona
Down — $440.8
blue.birds
Down — $313.03