Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

22 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Signal

29 of 64 top traders (45%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%46 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,043

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Down35 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,747

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	$7.4K	-$7.93	55% 465-380 (845)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.7K	$7.4K	+$3.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.6K	—	$-3.8K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$231.71	43% 318-426 (744)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.2K	$4.4K	+$2.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$377.55	45% 604-745 (1349)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.6K	$3.3K	+$1.6K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-2.0K
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh	Upavg 44.3¢	$926.22	$2.1K	+$1.2K	7% 37-459 (496)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Downavg 49.5¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	51% 1558-1472 (3030)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 52.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9.62	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
0X 0xBadB9af986EE66437BD39E6cd3D3036CbbDc31a	Upavg 74.4¢	$743.54	$1.0K	+$256.46	— 4-7 (11)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$950	-$0	52% 3660-3421 (7081)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 59.5¢	$802.83	$855.97	+$59.76	44% 789-994 (1783)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 43¢	$788.09	—	-$788.09	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 68.8¢	$818.6	$721.04	-$67.5	52% 5102-4793 (9895)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$729.83	$890.21	+$160.38	59% 1099-753 (1852)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.1¢	$534.74	$890.21	+$355.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$195.08	—	-$195.08
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 92.3¢	$912.4	$685.31	-$227.09	34% 765-1503 (2268)
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.3¢	$632.45	$685.31	+$52.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$279.95	—	-$279.95
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 89.6¢	$699.9	$500	-$199.9	52% 422-382 (804)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.6¢	$448.03	$500	+$51.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.3¢	$251.86	—	-$251.86
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 96.8¢	$729.06	$488	-$241.06	48% 1107-1223 (2330)
└ Up leg	Upavg 96.8¢	$472.28	$488	+$15.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$256.78	—	-$256.78
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$486.1	$539.25	+$53.16	46% 835-987 (1822)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.1¢	$318.89	$539.25	+$220.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$167.21	—	-$167.21
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$520.05	$454.06	-$36.65	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$226.92	$454.06	+$232.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$269.3	—	-$269.3
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Upavg 48.5¢	$193.85	$399.64	+$205.79	29% 128-309 (437)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$339.92	$210.63	-$129.29	54% 4621-3994 (8615)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$219.27	—	-$219.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$120.65	$210.63	+$89.98
BO bosonaCTR	Downavg 45.6¢	$341.91	—	-$341.91	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
machinelearned	Upavg 97.1¢	$463.25	$450	-$13.25	47% 1125-1273 (2398)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$288.56	$159.97	-$128.59	41% 819-1155 (1974)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$177.04	—	-$177.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$111.52	$159.97	+$48.45
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$254.19	$351.79	+$97.61	52% 941-852 (1793)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$181.5	$351.79	+$170.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$72.69	—	-$72.69
Bossgirl	Upavg 49.5¢	$114.94	$231.98	+$117.04	56% 83-64 (147)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$238.74	$160.83	-$77.91	55% 4526-3656 (8182)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$146.6	—	-$146.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$92.14	$160.83	+$68.69

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,521

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$7.93

Record

55%

465-380 (845)

Both legs:

Up$3,700.7650¢+$3.8K

Down$3,634.8250¢$-3.8K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$231.71

Record

43%

318-426 (744)

Both legs:

Up$2,220.2850¢+$2.3K

Down$2,48050¢$-2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$377.55

Record

45%

604-745 (1349)

Both legs:

Up$1,632.8550¢+$1.6K

Down$1,931.9150¢$-2.0K

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Invested

$926.22

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

37-459 (496)

mo-moneyCTR

Down

Invested

$1,680.61

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

51%

1558-1472 (3030)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$1,031.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.62

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

0xBadB9af986EE66437BD39E6cd3D3036CbbDc31a

Invested

$743.54

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$256.46

Record

—

4-7 (11)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

3660-3421 (7081)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$47550¢-$475

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$802.83

Value

$855.97

PnL

+$59.76

Record

44%

789-994 (1783)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$788.09

Value

—

PnL

-$788.09

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

blue.birds

Invested

$818.6

Value

$721.04

PnL

-$67.5

Record

52%

5102-4793 (9895)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$729.83

Value

$890.21

PnL

+$160.38

Record

59%

1099-753 (1852)

Both legs:

Up$534.7460.1¢+$355.46

Down$195.0841.9¢-$195.08

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$912.4

Value

$685.31

PnL

-$227.09

Record

34%

765-1503 (2268)

Both legs:

Up$632.4592.3¢+$52.86

Down$279.9544.8¢-$279.95

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$699.9

Value

$500

PnL

-$199.9

Record

52%

422-382 (804)

Both legs:

Up$448.0389.6¢+$51.97

Down$251.8639.3¢-$251.86

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$729.06

Value

$488

PnL

-$241.06

Record

48%

1107-1223 (2330)

Both legs:

Up$472.2896.8¢+$15.72

Down$256.7852.5¢-$256.78

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$486.1

Value

$539.25

PnL

+$53.16

Record

46%

835-987 (1822)

Both legs:

Up$318.8959.1¢+$220.37

Down$167.2140.2¢-$167.21

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$520.05

Value

$454.06

PnL

-$36.65

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Up$226.9250¢+$232.65

Down$269.350.3¢-$269.3

0xdc27...afdd9a

Invested

$193.85

Value

$399.64

PnL

+$205.79

Record

29%

128-309 (437)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$339.92

Value

$210.63

PnL

-$129.29

Record

54%

4621-3994 (8615)

Both legs:

Down$219.2739¢-$219.27

Up$120.6557.3¢+$89.98

bosonaCTR

Down

Invested

$341.91

Value

—

PnL

-$341.91

Record

51%

4806-4590 (9396)

machinelearned

Invested

$463.25

Value

$450

PnL

-$13.25

Record

47%

1125-1273 (2398)

x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100

Down

Invested

$288.56

Value

$159.97

PnL

-$128.59

Record

41%

819-1155 (1974)

Both legs:

Down$177.0439.5¢-$177.04

Up$111.5269.7¢+$48.45

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$254.19

Value

$351.79

PnL

+$97.61

Record

52%

941-852 (1793)

Both legs:

Up$181.551.6¢+$170.29

Down$72.6947.3¢-$72.69

Bossgirl

Invested

$114.94

Value

$231.98

PnL

+$117.04

Record

56%

83-64 (147)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$238.74

Value

$160.83

PnL

-$77.91

Record

55%

4526-3656 (8182)

Both legs:

Down$146.644.7¢-$146.6

Up$92.1457.3¢+$68.69

Smart Money Signal

29 of 64 top traders (45%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%46 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xeba48c68...1cd6f3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794724800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Up — $2.1K

+$1.2K

mo-money

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.7K

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $1.0K

-$9.62

0xBadB9af986EE66437BD39E6cd3D3036CbbDc31a

Up — $1.0K

+$256.46

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $855.97

+$59.76

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$788.09

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