Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.4K

Combined PnL

$-7.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

47 of 64 top traders (73%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down47 traders

Total Value$30.9K

Total Shares30,936

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,879

Combined PnL$-9.3K

Down — 73%Up — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.1K	+$117.65	55% 456-377 (833)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.6K	43% 312-418 (730)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 893-7 (900)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.2K	45% 599-736 (1335)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	70% 1728-737 (2465)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 98.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$23.29	51% 2012-1937 (3949)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 47.2¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$416.11	48% 1102-1211 (2313)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 54.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$27.56	59% 1093-745 (1838)
ST stepahead	Downavg 72.6¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$156.31	55% 4512-3652 (8164)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 51.6¢	$835.18	$899.95	+$105.58	44% 782-987 (1769)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.7¢	$717.77	$791.46	+$73.69	34% 756-1498 (2254)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 43.1¢	$494.9	$791.34	+$296.44	46% 831-977 (1808)
BO bosona	Downavg 82.3¢	$2.2K	$703.34	-$432.96	51% 4792-4578 (9370)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 84¢	$847.02	$697.31	-$116.01	52% 5094-4784 (9878)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 75.1¢	$684.52	$666.61	-$17.91	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 49.1¢	$512.6	$608.28	+$95.68	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.5¢	$551.79	$484.28	+$10.11	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 53.2¢	$317.99	$351.27	+$33.28	46% 753-873 (1626)
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh	Downavg 69.2¢	$320.74	$463.83	+$143.09	7% 36-459 (495)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 64.3¢	$304.16	$455	+$150.84	62% 78-47 (125)
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 59.3¢	$527.65	—	-$527.65	29% 529-1303 (1832)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$222.82	$299.99	+$77.17	53% 418-375 (793)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$135.83	—	-$135.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$86.99	$299.99	+$212.99
FairValueMachine	Downavg 39.5¢	$214.5	$327.79	+$113.29	54% 4614-3987 (8601)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 46.9¢	$265.67	$310.68	+$45.02	51% 829-806 (1635)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 80.3¢	$268.17	$291.04	+$22.87	51% 827-795 (1622)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,948

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$117.65

Record

55%

456-377 (833)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

43%

312-418 (730)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

893-7 (900)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

45%

599-736 (1335)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

70%

1728-737 (2465)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$1,992.39

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$23.29

Record

51%

2012-1937 (3949)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,116.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$416.11

Record

48%

1102-1211 (2313)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,341.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.56

Record

59%

1093-745 (1838)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$1,407

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$156.31

Record

55%

4512-3652 (8164)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$835.18

Value

$899.95

PnL

+$105.58

Record

44%

782-987 (1769)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$717.77

Value

$791.46

PnL

+$73.69

Record

34%

756-1498 (2254)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$494.9

Value

$791.34

PnL

+$296.44

Record

46%

831-977 (1808)

bosona

Down

Invested

$2,216.07

Value

$703.34

PnL

-$432.96

Record

51%

4792-4578 (9370)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$847.02

Value

$697.31

PnL

-$116.01

Record

52%

5094-4784 (9878)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$684.52

Value

$666.61

PnL

-$17.91

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$512.6

Value

$608.28

PnL

+$95.68

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$551.79

Value

$484.28

PnL

+$10.11

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$317.99

Value

$351.27

PnL

+$33.28

Record

46%

753-873 (1626)

0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh

Down

Invested

$320.74

Value

$463.83

PnL

+$143.09

Record

36-459 (495)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$304.16

Value

$455

PnL

+$150.84

Record

62%

78-47 (125)

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$527.65

Value

—

PnL

-$527.65

Record

29%

529-1303 (1832)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$222.82

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$77.17

Record

53%

418-375 (793)

Both legs:

Up$135.8340.4¢-$135.83

Down$86.9929¢+$212.99

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$214.5

Value

$327.79

PnL

+$113.29

Record

54%

4614-3987 (8601)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$265.67

Value

$310.68

PnL

+$45.02

Record

51%

829-806 (1635)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$268.17

Value

$291.04

PnL

+$22.87

Record

51%

827-795 (1622)

Smart Money Signal

Down

47 of 64 top traders (73%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x76a0473d...6c6b94

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794724500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.1K

+$117.65

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Up — $0

$-4.6K

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

machine-earning

CTR

Up — $0

$-3.2K

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$30

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.0K

+$23.29

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.5K

+$416.11

Bonereaper

Down — $1.4K

+$27.56

stepahead

Down — $1.2K

-$156.31

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $899.95

+$105.58

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