Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
62
Up 42%
4 arb excluded
$14.2K
$-17.0K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 62 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-7.7K | 55% 456-377 (833) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 43% 312-418 (730) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.1K | 45% 599-736 (1335) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Downavg 64.1¢ | $1.5K | $2.3K | +$817.22 | 7% 36-459 (495) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$16.67 | 99% 893-7 (900) |
AL almach | Downavg 86.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$446.06 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$138.33 | 59% 1093-745 (1838) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $735.63 | $842 | +$106.37 | 62% 78-47 (125) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.5¢ | $671.98 | $654.33 | -$17.65 | 44% 782-987 (1769) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.2¢ | $625.4 | $587.38 | -$38.02 | 55% 4512-3652 (8164) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.3¢ | $581.62 | $572.46 | -$9.15 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $543.77 | $554 | +$10.23 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 35.6¢ | $563.41 | — | -$563.41 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $601.56 | $484.42 | -$18.2 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
 mihaXd | Downavg 61.7¢ | $289.13 | $468.82 | +$179.69 | 54% 135-115 (250) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Downavg 62.5¢ | $290.65 | $465.41 | +$174.76 | 29% 127-307 (434) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $469.33 | $444.68 | -$24.65 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 38.3¢ | $550.99 | — | -$550.99 | 48% 1102-1211 (2313) |
 Bossgirl | Downavg 59¢ | $198.08 | $336 | +$137.92 | 56% 83-64 (147) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.3¢ | $190 | $300 | +$110 | 52% 5094-4784 (9878) |
 Atomforge | Downavg 83.1¢ | $205.83 | $247.74 | +$41.91 | 28% 297-782 (1079) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 33.8¢ | $206.67 | — | -$206.67 | 43% 1894-2540 (4434) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 69¢ | $214.99 | $199.99 | -$15 | 53% 418-375 (793) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $701.18 | $184.78 | -$53.67 | 34% 756-1498 (2254) |
PB PBot-6CTR | Upavg 48.7¢ | $170.5 | — | -$170.5 | 50% 893-886 (1779) |
Invested
$8,586
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
55%
456-377 (833)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
43%
312-418 (730)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
45%
599-736 (1335)
Invested
$1,459.32
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$817.22
Record
7%
36-459 (495)
Invested
$1,650.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$16.67
Record
99%
893-7 (900)
Invested
$1,605.01
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$446.06
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$1,331.76
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$138.33
Record
59%
1093-745 (1838)
Invested
$735.63
Value
$842
PnL
+$106.37
Record
62%
78-47 (125)
Invested
$671.98
Value
$654.33
PnL
-$17.65
Record
44%
782-987 (1769)
Invested
$625.4
Value
$587.38
PnL
-$38.02
Record
55%
4512-3652 (8164)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$581.62
Value
$572.46
PnL
-$9.15
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$543.77
Value
$554
PnL
+$10.23
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$563.41
Value
—
PnL
-$563.41
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
Invested
$601.56
Value
$484.42
PnL
-$18.2
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
mihaXdInvested
$289.13
Value
$468.82
PnL
+$179.69
Record
54%
135-115 (250)
Invested
$290.65
Value
$465.41
PnL
+$174.76
Record
29%
127-307 (434)
Invested
$469.33
Value
$444.68
PnL
-$24.65
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$550.99
Value
—
PnL
-$550.99
Record
48%
1102-1211 (2313)
BossgirlInvested
$198.08
Value
$336
PnL
+$137.92
Record
56%
83-64 (147)
Invested
$190
Value
$300
PnL
+$110
Record
52%
5094-4784 (9878)
AtomforgeInvested
$205.83
Value
$247.74
PnL
+$41.91
Record
28%
297-782 (1079)
Invested
$206.67
Value
—
PnL
-$206.67
Record
43%
1894-2540 (4434)
Invested
$214.99
Value
$199.99
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
418-375 (793)
Invested
$701.18
Value
$184.78
PnL
-$53.67
Record
34%
756-1498 (2254)
Invested
$170.5
Value
—
PnL
-$170.5
Record
50%
893-886 (1779)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Down — $2.3K
THG.
Down — $1.7K
almach
Down — $1.2K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.2K
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $842
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $654.33
stepahead
Down — $587.38