Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 69%
4 arb excluded
$14.8K
$-9.5K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 58 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 43% 312-418 (730) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 893-7 (900) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 599-736 (1335) |
0X 0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh | Upavg 62.6¢ | $1.3K | $2.0K | +$759.69 | 7% 36-459 (495) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 92.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$160.94 | 48% 1102-1211 (2313) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 71.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$40.8 | 59% 1093-745 (1838) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 77.7¢ | $665.8 | $643.67 | -$22.12 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 66.1¢ | $645.54 | $625.74 | -$19.8 | 55% 4512-3652 (8164) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 37.8¢ | $598.57 | $152.19 | -$446.38 | 51% 2012-1937 (3949) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.8¢ | $522.64 | — | -$522.64 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $75.94 | $152.19 | +$76.25 | |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 76.5¢ | $520.43 | $520.1 | +$1.17 | 52% 5094-4784 (9878) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.8¢ | $572.04 | $498.77 | -$6.22 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $473.91 | $479 | +$5.09 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 69.3¢ | $419.48 | $458.42 | +$38.94 | 44% 782-987 (1769) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 80.2¢ | $488.07 | $447 | -$41.07 | 34% 756-1498 (2254) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 78¢ | $651.26 | $371.84 | -$95.66 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a | Upavg 49.8¢ | $140.23 | $281.76 | +$141.53 | 29% 127-307 (434) |
BO bosona | Upavg 92¢ | $771.72 | $264.57 | -$170.67 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 47.1¢ | $2.4K | — | -$977.06 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
 Bossgirl | Upavg 41.6¢ | $89.13 | $214 | +$124.87 | 56% 83-64 (147) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 76¢ | $209.39 | $227.45 | +$18.06 | 48% 775-834 (1609) |
 mihaXd | Upavg 44.6¢ | $78.5 | $175.95 | +$97.45 | 54% 135-115 (250) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Downavg 59.3¢ | $134.09 | — | -$134.09 | 46% 753-873 (1626) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $108.68 | $113.99 | +$5.31 | 55% 456-377 (833) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 44.8¢ | $82.53 | $106.67 | +$24.14 | 46% 831-977 (1808) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 90¢ | $154.19 | $100 | -$54.19 | 53% 418-375 (793) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
43%
312-418 (730)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
893-7 (900)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
599-736 (1335)
Invested
$1,271.17
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$759.69
Record
7%
36-459 (495)
Invested
$1,588.2
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$160.94
Record
48%
1102-1211 (2313)
Invested
$1,137.03
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$40.8
Record
59%
1093-745 (1838)
Invested
$665.8
Value
$643.67
PnL
-$22.12
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$645.54
Value
$625.74
PnL
-$19.8
Record
55%
4512-3652 (8164)
Invested
$598.57
Value
$152.19
PnL
-$446.38
Record
51%
2012-1937 (3949)
Both legs:
Invested
$520.43
Value
$520.1
PnL
+$1.17
Record
52%
5094-4784 (9878)
Invested
$572.04
Value
$498.77
PnL
-$6.22
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Invested
$473.91
Value
$479
PnL
+$5.09
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$419.48
Value
$458.42
PnL
+$38.94
Record
44%
782-987 (1769)
Invested
$488.07
Value
$447
PnL
-$41.07
Record
34%
756-1498 (2254)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$651.26
Value
$371.84
PnL
-$95.66
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$140.23
Value
$281.76
PnL
+$141.53
Record
29%
127-307 (434)
Invested
$771.72
Value
$264.57
PnL
-$170.67
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Invested
$2,358.82
Value
—
PnL
-$977.06
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
BossgirlInvested
$89.13
Value
$214
PnL
+$124.87
Record
56%
83-64 (147)
Invested
$209.39
Value
$227.45
PnL
+$18.06
Record
48%
775-834 (1609)
mihaXdInvested
$78.5
Value
$175.95
PnL
+$97.45
Record
54%
135-115 (250)
Invested
$134.09
Value
—
PnL
-$134.09
Record
46%
753-873 (1626)
Invested
$108.68
Value
$113.99
PnL
+$5.31
Record
55%
456-377 (833)
Invested
$82.53
Value
$106.67
PnL
+$24.14
Record
46%
831-977 (1808)
Invested
$154.19
Value
$100
PnL
-$54.19
Record
53%
418-375 (793)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
0x478fhs7832bfs8f7dfdsfesh
Up — $2.0K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.4K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $643.67
stepahead
Up — $625.74
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Up — $520.1